How Serious is this Bear ?

[Raz]

One expert commentator on CNBC explained the dichotomy in views between the Fed and the market extremely well the other day.
The Fed's mandate is to look solely at domestic US economic data. All reported historical domestic US economic date looks fine and very robust.
The market however is a forward looking animal and knows 45% of the S&P 500 earnings come from exports and is very concerned with the looming trade war and the already crystal clear slowdown in many of the overseas markets. Fed is looking at the historical aspects of apples and the market is looking at the future aspects of oranges. No wonder there's such a difference in their point of view.

Seasons greeting to all...the market certainly has been a common topic of conversation with my friends here in NZ.

I think the the baby boomer demographic is starting to kick in, in mind set, more defensive positions all-round by the sector that holds the wealth.

Auckland and wider property price increases made it easy to make money until of late in NZ and that kills off risk taking and innovation. That has also occurred to a larger part in the US however their recent tax cuts have given a windfall to my cohort as well as allowed us to cash up businesses with a premium as well. Everyone I know has cashed up a large part of their portfolios and taken more defensive positions financially.

Here... where wealth is generally not as large as my US friends, everyone is stressing that their portfolio is now only 25% up rather than 40% overall. Why add the stress as you get older...so many people agonising over what they could have had...

2019 will be volatile overseas, its all set up to be nothing but and the question really is by how much...

[Balance]

Be very afraid when others are very greedy.

Be greedy when others are very fearful.

Always right to listen to the Oracle of Omaha but particularly when the commentary out there is pretty much all about fear.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/w...8-12?r=US&IR=T

“During such scary periods, you should never forget two things: First, widespread fear is your friend as an investor, because it serves up bargain purchases. Second, personal fear is your enemy. It will also be unwarranted. Investors who avoid high and unnecessary costs and simply sit for an extended period with a collection of large, conservatively-financed American businesses will almost certainly do well.”

In other words, don’t fall into widespread panic and begin selling off stocks, because wealth-generating investments are long term.

[Joshuatree]

Widespread euphoria atm DOW over 1,000 points up.