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View Poll Results: Will the Bear come here ?

Voters
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  • Bears can't swim too far so we are safe

    5 11.11%
  • The existing bears at Zoo's might claw us

    11 24.44%
  • Existing bears at Zoo's will escape and do some damage

    20 44.44%
  • Bears will arrive on ships and take over the country

    9 20.00%
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  1. #16
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by horus1 View Post
    I agree . It is a stock pickers market.Have been hit with HGH but donot sell . Will buy at the bottom. have a lot
    A year ago HGH's share price was a lot higher than it is today,yet today the business is in a lot better shape than it was a year ago.This will be confirmed when their half year result comes out in about 4 or 5 weeks time.

    I actually added to our holding a couple of weeks ago,which caused the sp to drop further..lol..
    .
    Last edited by percy; 02-01-2019 at 12:55 PM.

  2. #17
    Gnawing on Bones Beagle's Avatar
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    $1.30 ish is possibly somewhere close to the bottom (assuming the custard doesn't really hit the fan AKA GFC Mk2) but financials have never been known to be a defensive sector in a bear market before...so plenty of risk even at the current beaten down price and quite probably a 50/50 call whether this goes up or down in 2019 in my opinion. Disc: Holding a very modest stake for dividend yield.
    They certainly have a more consistent track record than TRA with growing eps and are on not dissimilar metrics. Looks a much better bet than TRA to my eyes.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  3. #18
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    I have been adding.

  4. #19
    percy
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    Yes it will be interesting seeing whether HGH or TRA outperforms the other this year.
    At this stage I think HGH's Australian REL business has the momentum to carry the day for HGH.
    However, I and prepared to be pleasantly surprised by TRA.
    In the meantime, both are paying large fully imputed divies,which they look able to maintain much to my pleasure.
    I look forward to seeing which one increases their divie.At this stage I think it will be TRA.Their buyback will improve all their financial ratios.

  5. #20
    Gnawing on Bones Beagle's Avatar
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    So the poll is running 2:1 that the bear's coming here and will do some pretty serious clawing.
    Nobody has really opinioned on how long they expect the big bad bear to stay ?
    Last edited by Beagle; 05-01-2019 at 11:25 AM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  6. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    So the poll is running 2:1 that the bear's coming here and will do some pretty serious clawing.
    Nobody has really opinioned on how long they expect the big bad bear to stay ?
    https://www.alhambrapartners.com/201...-lost-the-ism/

    perhaps now more than just the bear.....
    Last edited by Raz; 05-01-2019 at 04:24 PM.

  7. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    So the poll is running 2:1 that the bear's coming here and will do some pretty serious clawing.
    Nobody has really opinioned on how long they expect the big bad bear to stay ?
    Judging by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s reaction to encourage banks not to restrict lending in early December it looks like economic growth is the priority at the expense of reckless lending which fuelled a housing boom. With house prices posing a risk to growth, Guy Debelle says the lesson from the GFC is to keep credit flowing. The comments come a day after data showed Australia’s economy had slowed from an annual rate of 3.4% to 2.8%. Yet regulators over the past two years have wanted to tighten lending because credit standards were too loose. The subsequent shrinking of credit – especially to housing investors – is pinpointed as one of the key reasons for the current fall in prices.

    So conflicting messages there from regulators. The Royal Commission into Banking exposed fraudulent and dodgy practices, liar loans, reckless lending, but it seems such behaviour is okay if it is the only way to get economic growth. Lots of lessons from GFC apart from keeping credit growth flowing and most of them have not been learnt. I can’t see enough Australians rushing into buy property to push up prices and get the economy growing. So growth will be flat at best, but most likely slowing growth. Certainly no long term sustainable growth.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australi...ty-urges-banks

  8. #23
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    Jeffrey Gundlach thinks this is a bear market. This bear market could last a long time he says.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hA_kg_nMGNU

    He says in the fullness of time we’ll go below the February lows. “I’m pretty sure this is a bear market – I’ve been around 35 years, I’ve seen a number of bear markets.” It’s more about how you lead into it, how it develops, how the sentiment changes, and I think we’ve pretty much had all the variables that characterize a bear market. Amazed at how it goes on longer than it should eg dot.com IPOs with no sales/revenue. Cryptos truly a mania, and then it crashed last year. And then you start to see various sectors of the global markets give it up. Amazon gave it up, then Apple gave it up. Global markets peaked January 26.

    Ford announced that it would have to raise the prices of new cars if inputs prices go up due to NAFTA, and suddenly the market seemed to wake up that this was real and the next day the stock market tipped. October 3rd Jerome Powell’s comment re a long way from neutral = scary thing for markets, and a tipping point. I’d be happier if the VIX would go above 40 – typically what happens when you get to the bottom coz so much nervousness and fear. Bear market = late day volume bad. We’ve had the first leg down and usually the second leg down is more painful in the short term.

    Highly unusual increasing the budget deficit so late in the cycle. Budget deficit extraordinarily high. Supposedly having a good economy but almost no growth happening apart from increasing the deficit by 6% of GDP. So as we move into a weaker economy which will happen at some point the deficit will continue to expand at a rate which will be prohibitive for the usual decline in interest rates helping to stimulate the economy. That's the big variable which investors need to focus on. While deficit is rising the Fed is raising interest rates, so interest expense will be increasing. What if we go into a recession, what’s the deficit going to be? I’ve had a call that come 2020/2021 the 20 year treasury will be 6%.

    In financial markets these things go much longer than they should. This bear could last a long time. 80% of the countries in MSCI world index are in the death cross. 90% of the risk assets in the world are in bear markets. A pretty widespread and coordinated set of weaknesses.

    The problem is the fact that the deficit is out of control this late in the cycle. Never before had the Fed raise interest rates while the budget deficit was expanding. Usually the budget deficit expands as a response to recession, stimulating to get us out of recession. Instead we did it to keep this economic recovery going. Global economy slowing down. Fed didn’t see lending problems in 2006. Last quarter GDP of 3.5%, but real GDP if you take out building inventories is 1.2%. Yield curve has flattened out. It’s a debt based economy, when retail sales go up coz people borrowed more money is that really good? Borrowing money leads to short term growth.

    Consumer expectations (re future) are amazingly weak, while consumer confidence (= current) is strong. Short term growth from growing deficit, which is driving the economy. Corporate economy also leveraged up to record levels, which previously has been a harbinger of recession. Can’t blame CEOs – given incredibly low interest rates so of course they leveraged up and borrowed to buy back shares. Very high vulnerability to higher interest rates. Investment grade corporate bonds looking bad. I’m negative on corporate credit.

    US$ strong, peaked out Jan 2017, dropped 15% then rallied. Next big move for US$ is down, correlates very well with the size of the twin deficits = deficit up and US$ down. Reserve currency status keeps US$ up. Middle part of 2018 historically unique – new highs for USA stock market while global stockmarket went to 12 month low. Threat of trade war having a negative impact on the economy. Tarrifs don’t really hurt economy coz exports only 8%, but hurts consumers = inflation.
    Capital preservation for 2019 he says. Commodities are up, bonds and shares down. Bearish on the bond market, yields headed higher he thinks. He is not a fan of passive investing.

  9. #24
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    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-ocean-of-debt
    Gundlach Warns U.S. Economy Is Floating on ‘an Ocean of Debt’
    Gundlach expects further declines in the U.S. stock market, which recently have steadied after reeling for most of December since the Great Depression. Equities will be weak early in the year and strengthen later in 2019, effectively a reversal of what happened last year, he said.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...ubprime-crisis
    Gundlach Compares Recent Buy-the-Dip Mentality to Subprime Crisis
    Dismiss his gloomy outlook if you wish, but, as Bloomberg News’s John Gittelsohn noted ahead of the webcast, a lot of what Gundlach predicted in 2018 came true. He called for U.S. equities to rise early in 2018 but then eventually reverse and leave the market down for the year. He nailed the direction of stocks better than some of his equity counterparts.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ing-out-credit
    Gundlach walked through recession indicators and noted that some are now flashing yellow, such as junk bond spreads, consumer expectations and homebuilder confidence.

  10. #25
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    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZE9TJPEnn3Y
    Jeff Gundlach predicted Donald Trump will be POTUS in May 2016 and even earlier in January 2016.

    He says in a Trump portfolio companies that are susceptible to global trade slowdown should be avoided - particularly Mexico and China.
    He says in investing hope is not a method, you have to deal with reality.

  11. #26
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    The 2008 was a serious bear and this is Congressman Alan Grayson in 2009 questioning Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on $550B of loans to foreigners (or 'central liquidity swaps' in Federal Reserve-ese').
    Which financial institutions received this money? Bernanke's answer: I don't know.
    As the Fed was lending this money, the dollar increased by 30% in value. Grayson asks, was this a coincidence? Bernanke's answer: yes.
    New Zealand got $9 billion.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGs_Qn5yEgs

  12. #27
    Ignorant. Just ignorant.
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    Quote Originally Posted by moka View Post
    The 2008 was a serious bear and this is Congressman Alan Grayson in 2009 questioning Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on $550B of loans to foreigners (or 'central liquidity swaps' in Federal Reserve-ese').
    Which financial institutions received this money? Bernanke's answer: I don't know.
    As the Fed was lending this money, the dollar increased by 30% in value. Grayson asks, was this a coincidence? Bernanke's answer: yes.
    New Zealand got $9 billion.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGs_Qn5yEgs
    Adam Tooze's "Crashed" is a good piece of background.

  13. #28
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    The hot hand fallacy does include doomsday critics.
    I would argue those who saw the dot-com bubble bursting did not see the GFC coming, those who saw the GFC coming will not be the ones to predict the next crisis ( hopefully it's interesting ), simple political bears don't count

  14. #29
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    Default Neo-feudalism

    The problem is not neo-liberalism, it is neo-feudalism.
    Bernie Fraser in large part blames neoliberalism and its influence on policymaking for the “disconnect between Australia’s impressive economic growth story and its failure on so many markers to show progress towards a better, fairer society”.
    This is true in some respects. That is not the fault of neo-liberalism. It is the fault of ad hoc government interventions that have turned the neo-liberal system into a neo-feudal one. We have gotten horribly confused about where the boundaries between government and markets should be and in that confusion oligarchy is thriving.
    I have variously called it oligarchy, the business “identity state”, it could be called libertarianism or, in reality today, neo-feudalism. It is the rise of a self-sustaining business elite that consciously perverts all policy in its favour, systematically disenchfranshises working classes and youth, sees its own profits as a virtue in of themselves and, most importantly, has no idea what markets are supposed to look like nor how competition should operate.

    https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2018/10/problem-not-neo-liberalism-neo-feudalism/

  15. #30
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    IMF says the global economic expansion is losing momentum as it cuts growth forecasts. The world economy is growing more slowly than expected and risks are rising. But even as the economy continues to move ahead it is facing significantly higher risks.
    Risks include escalating trade tensions, high levels of public and private debt, “no-deal” Brexit for the U.K. and a deeper-than-envisaged slowdown in China. The U.K.’s exit from the EU is still uncertain. Though the official deadline for departure is in less than three months, there is no clear majority among U.K. lawmakers for what this departure should look like. As the deadline approaches, many believe the chance of an exit without a formal deal is becoming more likely — where the U.K. and the EU have to rely on WTO trading arrangements.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/21/imf-...2019-2020.html

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