Will the Bear come here ?

[winner69]

NZX50 ended the year up 4.6%, one of the few markets in the world to be in the green for the year.
NZ investors in effect were handed a "get out of jail free card" in 2018...what they do with that in 2019 is up to them.

Just as well it’s a gross index with dividends (reinvested as well) counted

NZX50Capital up 1% last year but 8% off its August highs

[percy]

Some headlines.
ANZ expect cash rate to fall.
NZ's unemployment rate declined to 3.9% in the third quarter of 2018.
Christmas retail bonanza .
Maybe this Bear is Cookie Bear?

[couta1]

Some headlines.
ANZ expect cash rate to fall.
NZ's unemployment rate declined to 3.9% in the third quarter of 2018.
Christmas retail bonanza .
Maybe this Bear is Cookie Bear?

I Love all kinds of Bears including Cookie Bear of course.PS-Every man should own at least one Bear.

[winner69]

Some headlines.
ANZ expect cash rate to fall.
NZ's unemployment rate declined to 3.9% in the third quarter of 2018.
Christmas retail bonanza .
Maybe this Bear is Cookie Bear?

Slowing economic growth and a very low unemployment generally leads to a bust ....but thats a big problem for 2020

At 3.9% the unemployment rate is well below 4.6% RB economists estimate to be consistent with low inflation

RBNZ leading us to not so good times .....and ANZ have ulterior motives for ‘forecasting’ lower interest rates

[horus1]

I agree . It is a stock pickers market.Have been hit with HGH but donot sell . Will buy at the bottom. have a lot

[percy]

I agree . It is a stock pickers market.Have been hit with HGH but donot sell . Will buy at the bottom. have a lot

A year ago HGH's share price was a lot higher than it is today,yet today the business is in a lot better shape than it was a year ago.This will be confirmed when their half year result comes out in about 4 or 5 weeks time.

I actually added to our holding a couple of weeks ago,which caused the sp to drop further..lol..
.

[Beagle]

$1.30 ish is possibly somewhere close to the bottom (assuming the custard doesn't really hit the fan AKA GFC Mk2) but financials have never been known to be a defensive sector in a bear market before...so plenty of risk even at the current beaten down price and quite probably a 50/50 call whether this goes up or down in 2019 in my opinion. Disc: Holding a very modest stake for dividend yield.
They certainly have a more consistent track record than TRA with growing eps and are on not dissimilar metrics. Looks a much better bet than TRA to my eyes.

[horus1]

I have been adding.

[percy]

Yes it will be interesting seeing whether HGH or TRA outperforms the other this year.
At this stage I think HGH's Australian REL business has the momentum to carry the day for HGH.
However, I and prepared to be pleasantly surprised by TRA.
In the meantime, both are paying large fully imputed divies,which they look able to maintain much to my pleasure.
I look forward to seeing which one increases their divie.At this stage I think it will be TRA.Their buyback will improve all their financial ratios.

[Beagle]

So the poll is running 2:1 that the bear's coming here and will do some pretty serious clawing.
Nobody has really opinioned on how long they expect the big bad bear to stay ?