Will the Bear come here ?

[Lewylewylewy]

Personally, I'm looking forward to brexit. I wanna top up 🤣

[Leftfield]

I would like a more positive option to vote on. (All these ones are pretty negative.)

How about.....

You gotta love bear hunting time.....plenty of fur to be found and some irresistible targets.

[Beagle]

I would like a more positive option to vote on. (All these ones are pretty negative.)

How about.....

You gotta love bear hunting time.....plenty of fur to be found and some irresistible targets.

[moka]

Good chart in the article.
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/201...falling-apart/
The Aussie economy is quietly falling apart. You’d have to be as blind as the RBA to miss the signals. GDP is made up of six components and they are not going well on balance.

[moka]

Ray Dalio says a rise of populism is also a pressing concern for market participants, with nationalist and far-right parties making significant electoral gains worldwide in recent months. We have to make capitalism work for the majority of Americans.
“What scares me the most longer term is that we have limitations to monetary policy — which is our most valuable tool — at the same as we have greater political and social antagonism,” “So, the next downturn in the economy worries me the most,” he added.
Central bank ability to stimulate is limited. Can’t print money and can’t lower interest rate. We need to re-engineer capitalism in a productive way. Economy will be slowing around the globe. Wealth gap and populism like 1930s.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/22/brid...-the-most.html

[moka]

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/22/bill...n-economy.html
Seth Klarman, a hedge fund billionaire some call the next Warren Buffett, wrote a sobering letter warning his investors of the economic impact of global tension, rising debt and the pervasive political divide. “It can’t be business as usual amid constant protests, riots, shutdowns and escalating social tensions,” Klarman wrote in the annual letter to investors.
Klarman also warned about growing debt levels, pointing out that total U.S. government debt now exceeds GDP, a level that other countries like Canada, France, Britain and Spain are approaching. “The seeds of the next major financial crisis (or the one after that) may well be found in today’s sovereign debt levels,” he said.

[Aaron]

Ray Dalio says a rise of populism is also a pressing concern for market participants, with nationalist and far-right parties making significant electoral gains worldwide in recent months. We have to make capitalism work for the majority of Americans.
“What scares me the most longer term is that we have limitations to monetary policy — which is our most valuable tool — at the same as we have greater political and social antagonism,” “So, the next downturn in the economy worries me the most,” he added.
Central bank ability to stimulate is limited. Can’t print money and can’t lower interest rate. We need to re-engineer capitalism in a productive way. Economy will be slowing around the globe. Wealth gap and populism like 1930s.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/22/brid...-the-most.html

Currently reading Ray Dalio's book on debt crisis's and have watched his videos on youtube. Smart guy makes sense and describes what is happening (although his quote about people in cash looking silly last year just goes to show even the smartest can't see into the future). What I don't like about Ray Dalio is that he describes what is happening and expresses concern about the wealth gap and the need for capitalism to work for all etc etc. What he doesn't propose is a way to change the current system to rectify the issues. Sounds like he would like to hang onto his wealth without all the societal/political disruptions that occur once the wealth gap gets too big to bear. I think he trotted out the standard threat of capital flight if taxes are raised on the well off the other day. Ray Dalio seems to be for the status quo even while recognising the problems it is starting to cause outside and inside the financial world.

[moka]

Currently reading Ray Dalio's book on debt crisis's and have watched his videos on youtube. Smart guy makes sense and describes what is happening (although his quote about people in cash looking silly last year just goes to show even the smartest can't see into the future). What I don't like about Ray Dalio is that he describes what is happening and expresses concern about the wealth gap and the need for capitalism to work for all etc etc. What he doesn't propose is a way to change the current system to rectify the issues. Sounds like he would like to hang onto his wealth without all the societal/political disruptions that occur once the wealth gap gets too big to bear. I think he trotted out the standard threat of capital flight if taxes are raised on the well off the other day. Ray Dalio seems to be for the status quo even while recognising the problems it is starting to cause outside and inside the financial world.

I agree Dalio, Gundlach, Klarman are acting out of self-interest. What are they scared of? Losing their current assets and investments in a crash, and also worry about where the future opportunities are to come from when 90% of the world lives in poverty and there is no economic growth. Yes, they are operating out of self-interest and they have been big players in the creation of these problems.
However I am pleased they are pointing out there is a serious problem because they have more credibility than the average man in the street who is suffering. These investors are very successful because they understand macroeconomics and the world of finance so well. So I commend them for speaking out and going against the current trend of denial. Printing money, keeping interest rates low which helps create more debt is unsustainable.
My point in doing these posts is to point out that there is a serious problem. Many economic leaders refuse to accept there is a problem. Only when the problem is acknowledged at the highest level at forums like the Davos Economic Summit can we start to look at solutions. We are not there yet.

[moka]

If you are doing okay then other people’s or countries’ pain tends to get ignored. Let’s hope it is not austerity for us all.
The leaders of Germany, Italy and Spain each offered a different view on the future of Europe when they delivered their messages to participants at Davos.
"A sense of despair is spreading," said Italy's Giuseppe Conte. "Even the middle class is facing poverty. Everyone feels that tomorrow will be worse than today ... Our experience might be an indication of what Europe will look like tomorrow," the Prime Minister said.
Germany's Chancellor took a more optimistic view, pointing to the fact that the world is a much better place with far less poverty than in 1971. And she urged people to think beyond their narrow national interests and to reform global institutions with a view to achieving “win-win” outcomes.
Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez started his speech by warning that we are in danger of forgetting the lessons learnt from the 2008 financial crisis.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/...hree-at-davos/

[moka]

A bit of positive news - New Zealand featured in the 8 top stories from Davos 2019.
4. New Zealand has a well-being budget.
Jacinda Ardern has unveiled a new approach to running New Zealand’s finances. "We need to address the societal well-being of our nation, not just the economic well-being,” she said during a discussion on More than GDP.
This means that from 2019, her government will present a “well-being budget” to gauge the long-term impact of policy on the quality of people’s lives.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/...om-davos-2019/