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irrational exuberance ...
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Saw this jump right infront of my eyes. Overeaction to the XERO deal or actual substance ? I want to say it's an over-reaction but there seems to be some liquidity to support the rise..
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For what its worth, I have one client who uses them and he tells me he is very impressed with how good and efficient they are.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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Originally Posted by Beagle
For what its worth, I have one client who uses them and he tells me he is very impressed with how good and efficient they are.
Beagle been buying and thats why the price is sky rocketing
At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.
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LOL no thanks. Reading their financials is sobering stuff. http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...084/312883.pdf
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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their financial reports are beyond horrendous. This is probably a great example of how you can't always make logical deductions for why or when a stock will rise lol
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Lol. You saw what I saw a few months ago. There growth looked amazing. But checked it out realised I'd brought a mistake. Sold out thinking the share would drop. Oops I was wrong. Maybe xero will buy them out
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Originally Posted by Beagle
For what its worth, I have one client who uses them and he tells me he is very impressed with how good and efficient they are.
Originally Posted by Cadalac123
their financial reports are beyond horrendous. This is probably a great example of how you can't always make logical deductions for why or when a stock will rise lol
I looked at what they do for 'Johnny" and what they charge him for it and I have serious questions as to whether their business model will ever be profitable taking into account the total overheads of running the business.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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The idea of them being bought out by someone would make some sense otherwise this is incredibly strange 40% rise in one day with no real news.
NZX slow to react as usual.
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Reminds me of a company that use to be listed called GeoOp that did invoicing software, listed $1, went to a high of $4.49 then traded less than a tenth of that then delisted.
Went up along the tech wave because Xero had been doing really well, but its own numbers were never convincing.
I think the Paysauce business is a good one given the recent changes in PAYE and requirements for employers to report more regularly with the IRD, but I'm not sure it can be a big one and theres a good difference there. When you consider a business like Xero, everyone needed it and there weren't many competitors at the time thinking about cloud accounting.
Payroll software of course everyone needs it too, but it is a bit different, theres many competitors and theres nothing these guys are doing thats a technological advantage.
In reality if we normalise their expenses, they have actually have tripled while there revenue has only doubled. Until revenue growth outpaces expenses I'd be fearful of the financials. They have got a decent amount of cash in the bank to last 2-3 years so thats not too bad, but I still question the valuation, I only saw it been worth 30 odd million, not the $156 million for a business with about $1.6 million revenue and $2 million in losses.
Last edited by silverblizzard888; 05-01-2020 at 11:48 AM.
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