PYS - PaySauce

[etrader]

Just a side note around daily volume and today’s standout trade.

This tends to be a very low volume tightly held stock with 150k a big day, largest in the last few years was 350k so today’s one off trade of 500k parcel certainly is a sign that word has got out there for someone to commit $150k.

I’ve analysed the Q1 and happy to commit another 5 figure sum for a bottom draw investment.

[winner69]

Sponsoring the Wellington rugby teams

A bit of exposure on national TV - hope punters don't get confused and think its a tasty sauce to go on the pie and chips.

Pity they are backing a losing team in the Lions ..... but the Pride are pretty good.

https://wellington.scoop.co.nz/?p=146318

[silverblizzard888]

This is slowly looking like a company worth investing into, but still a cash burning furnace for the time being. I'm looking for them to reach $7m ARR for my entry.

[etrader]

Should be hitting ARR of $7 mill by Q4 and the following 3 quarters if the growth holds.

Looks like 28c baseline is now forming and seems to have moved up from 26c levels.

Now above MA100 and holding, not expecting anything big news in near future but the 6 months annual report due mid to late October should indicate where it’s heading as their best growth generally happens in Q1.

I’ve sat out my time waiting on the sideline snapping up the dips and confidently increased substantially during the last week.

I have funds still set aside for a capital raise if required, they’re now cashflow positive and reinvesting funds in growth but a 1/7 around 22c will allow a $5 mill purchase if and when the ideal bolt on happens

[silverblizzard888]

Should be hitting ARR of $7 by Q4 and the following quarters if the growth holds.

Looks like 28c baseline is now forming and seems to have moved up from 26c levels.

Now above MA100 and holding, not expecting anything big in near future but the 6 months annual report due mid to late October should indicate where it’s heading as their best growth generally happens in Q1.

I’ve sat out my time waiting on the sideline snapping up the dips and confidently increased substantially during the last week.

I have funds still set aside for a capital raise if required, they’re now cashflow positive and reinvesting funds in growth but a 1/7 around 22c will allow a $5 mill purchase if and when the ideal bolt on happens

I'll make sure to keep tabs on this for Q4, this could become quite the company if they can prove they can consistently grow and expand. Their purchase of Smooth pay definitely sets them up to expand to Aus. Reason I need $7m ARR is because at that level they can begin to prove that they can scale and also look towards profitability if they wanted.

[etrader]

$4.4 mill was their revenue in FY2022 and putting the first 1/4 into context I’ve taken a conservative 50% growth this year giving a base of $6.6 mill.

Interest rates have great upside with each 100 basis point movement having a $250k gain PA, today’s OCR will only accelerate the 330% surge in Q1 interest received as term deposits roll over.

ASM is hosted in AKL next month and although they can only still report up to Q1 unless there’s any major news a lot of the meeting will simply be a formality around FY2022.

With q4 becoming cashflow positive if this is maintained the flow on to the growth will mean a deeper investment into culture, key staff and increased markets.

There’s only one or two on the forum who show an interest in this stock and I value input if I’m missing any key metrics.

6 months to end of Sep should be a telling sign of organic growth including OCT flow through

[etrader]

PYS hit 32.5c which looks to almost be at breakout if the trickle of volume continues.

6 Month period has passed with Q2 generally out early next week and off the back of Q1 vs Q4 2021 a 12% rise which is modest I’d be hoping for another 15% up from Q1.

My estimate of $6+ mill IRR from Q4 and the following 3 quarters should be on track assuming no new companies are purchased.

Ceo has clearly noted in the delivery of results given q4 was in surplus that no capital raise is needed unless “an appropriate target” is found that will add scale and fair multiples.

I’ve taken a collect and hold ethos during the last year when dips happen and remain passionate that patients in the next 3 - 5 years could pay off

[Rawz]

PYS hit a low of 24.5c 24TH Aug and now 32.5c? On no news and during a wider market sell off??? hmmm 33% up.

Whats going on here?

Always hung around 27 cents.

I am still thinking there will be a cap raise and this nice jump in SP of late will allow for a nice discount so that it is fully subscribed

[etrader]

Rawz nice grab on that dip but from memory it was an instraday low on small volume, still seemed to track closer to the .26.6c to .27c most of the time but recently there’s been very small increases half to 1c at a time.

Like you point out no news and a declining market but are a few investors collection for a positive 6 month earnings ? Or is it a fair price for a SAAS that’s moved from a startup to a scale up.

I’m also picking by bundles of 12 plus trades that get pumped into one buy is that from a Sharesies style platform where the volume came yesterday right on close.

If they hit a IRR of $6 mill plus and grow at say 33% the following would you think a share like this would price in the late 30’s assuming no big capital raise.

I still figure a 1:7 at 20% discount to now would bring in $5mill new capital and based of their last phrase of 1.5 multiple of turnover over that could find a 2.5 - 3.25 mill revenue business if my math is right.

[Rawz]

I reckon FY23 revenue will be $5.5m so today they are trading 8x FY23 revenue. This will represent 61% revenue growth.
By Q4 ARR should be $6.1m if they do $5.5m.

How do you value this? I have no idea tbh.

They should raise capital and buy more payroll companies like they did last year. that worked very well.