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Thread: Predictions

  1. #16
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    My Prediction is that in 6 months we will be in a major global economic crisis. This one will be simular to 2008 in that banks will be hit, but the root problem will be due to a wider range of debt. I believe the banks have once again lent out to those who can't afford to pay and have been aggressive in getting people to take out mortages and loans for consumer items. This has been the driver of asset bubbles all around the world. On top of that Companies have been taking out cheap loans and paying dividents or buying their own stock. basically I believe we will hit the debt wall it will be the trigger the crisis.

  2. #17
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    I predict a recession is coming and that Trump will make it so much worse.

    · Trump’s trade war is the biggest threat to the U.S. economy in 2019.
    · Trump has already shot most of the fiscal bullets, leaving less ammunition when it’s actually needed.
    · Leadership - there’s the problem of USA’s deteriorating international standing. In the last financial crisis, having good relationships with foreign central banks, finance ministers and other leaders abroad proved crucial for coordinating fiscal and monetary responses.
    · Trump has picked trade wars with adversaries and allies alike. He’s insulted foreign leaders, proved himself an erratic, unreliable partner, with a dubious grasp of basic economics.
    · Trump views the world as zero-sum. Any time another country is improving, it must be at USA’s expense. Given this outlook, he may be suspicious of any multilateral response to a global downturn.
    · Finally, there’s this administration’s unusually shallow bench of economic talent. Consider the team that led us out of the 2007-2008 financial panic. Whatever their shortcomings — and not foreseeing the crisis was surely one of them — they collectively offered tremendous expertise, experience and relationships. Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke had spent his academic career studying the Great Depression. Bush’s treasury secretary, Henry Paulson, had been chief executive of Goldman Sachs; he knew the players on Wall Street, and they respected him. Timothy Geithner, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and later Obama’s treasury secretary, understood the plumbing of both the financial system and the federal government. (In an earlier stint at Treasury in the 1990s, he was involved in responses to financial crises in Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea and Thailand.)

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.1d64b066c8b7

  3. #18
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    Australia will see the world's biggest house price declines this year. In a research report released on Wednesday, Fitch Ratings forecast Australian house prices would decline a further 5 per cent this year, on top of a 6.7 per cent decline from the peak so far, making Australian housing the worst performer out of 24 countries for the second consecutive year. The report said high household debt amplifies risks, with debt-to-GDP ratios at or over 100 per cent in Australia, Canada, Denmark, the Netherlands and Norway, and over 85 per cent in New Zealand, South Korea, Sweden and the UK.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-...rices/10720406

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