SZL Sezzle

[silverblizzard888]

One stock that sparks my attention is Sezzle they have just grown from last quarter by 50% which is amazing growth for just one quarter never mind a year. The valuation is slightly high at $390 million, but I feel it has huge potential and here are my estimated numbers that back it up. Current share price $2.20

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/201907...r23wv91d25.pdf page 2
A company to compare it with would be Afterpay (APT)

Its not necessarily overvalued since you are paying for some incredible growth. For such a company the lead indicator will the be the merchant count as past history shows customers have no problem signing up and using their services if its available. As long as merchant count growth is high then likely will be correlated with increased growth of users.

The difference here is Afterpay go after the big merchants in the US and Sezzle go after the small to medium hence why they will have larger merchant numbers.

Next quarterly release
Expect 7000 Merchants, 600,000 customers, $60 million merchant sales, $2.88 million fees

Quarter after that (christmas quarter)
Expect 9000 Merchants (likely start targeting medium merchants), 1 million customers, $100 million merchant sales, $4.8 million fees

For 2019 calender year expecting $11 million revenue in merchant fees.

Quarter after that will be slower, merchants will be desperate to increase sales, they will sign more up, customer growth will slow, merchant sales will be down and sale with merchant sales fees.
Expect 11,000 merchants, 1.2 million customers, $90 million merchant sales, $4.32 million fees

Quarter after that, these guys will want to go for the even bigger fish.
Expect 12,500 merchants, 1.6 million customers, $130 million merchant sales, $6.24 million fees

I'll skip the rest, but ...2020 calender year revenue for fees would be about $30 million (compared to $11 million prior)
2021 fee revenue would be $75 million
2022 fee revenue would be $200 million

With about a 3 year projection we would have a $2 billion company based on 10x revenues. $11.25 per share at 2022
*likely more capital raising and dilution during that time.