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Thread: SZL Sezzle

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    2019 NZ Stock Picking Winner silverblizzard888's Avatar
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    Default SZL Sezzle

    One stock that sparks my attention is Sezzle they have just grown from last quarter by 50% which is amazing growth for just one quarter never mind a year. The valuation is slightly high at $390 million, but I feel it has huge potential and here are my estimated numbers that back it up. Current share price $2.20

    https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/201907...r23wv91d25.pdf page 2
    A company to compare it with would be Afterpay (APT)

    Its not necessarily overvalued since you are paying for some incredible growth. For such a company the lead indicator will the be the merchant count as past history shows customers have no problem signing up and using their services if its available. As long as merchant count growth is high then likely will be correlated with increased growth of users.

    The difference here is Afterpay go after the big merchants in the US and Sezzle go after the small to medium hence why they will have larger merchant numbers.

    Next quarterly release
    Expect 7000 Merchants, 600,000 customers, $60 million merchant sales, $2.88 million fees

    Quarter after that (christmas quarter)
    Expect 9000 Merchants (likely start targeting medium merchants), 1 million customers, $100 million merchant sales, $4.8 million fees

    For 2019 calender year expecting $11 million revenue in merchant fees.

    Quarter after that will be slower, merchants will be desperate to increase sales, they will sign more up, customer growth will slow, merchant sales will be down and sale with merchant sales fees.
    Expect 11,000 merchants, 1.2 million customers, $90 million merchant sales, $4.32 million fees

    Quarter after that, these guys will want to go for the even bigger fish.
    Expect 12,500 merchants, 1.6 million customers, $130 million merchant sales, $6.24 million fees

    I'll skip the rest, but ...2020 calender year revenue for fees would be about $30 million (compared to $11 million prior)
    2021 fee revenue would be $75 million
    2022 fee revenue would be $200 million

    With about a 3 year projection we would have a $2 billion company based on 10x revenues. $11.25 per share at 2022
    *likely more capital raising and dilution during that time.
    Last edited by silverblizzard888; 31-07-2019 at 08:33 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by silverblizzard888 View Post
    One stock that sparks my attention is Sezzle they have just grown from last quarter by 50% which is amazing growth for just one quarter never mind a year. The valuation is slightly high at $390 million, but I feel it has huge potential and here are my estimated numbers that back it up. Current share price $2.20

    https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/201907...r23wv91d25.pdf page 2
    A company to compare it with would be Afterpay (APT)

    Its not necessarily overvalued since you are paying for some incredible growth. For such a company the lead indicator will the be the merchant count as past history shows customers have no problem signing up and using their services if its available. As long as merchant count growth is high then likely will be correlated with increased growth of users.

    The difference here is Afterpay go after the big merchants in the US and Sezzle go after the small to medium hence why they will have larger merchant numbers.

    Next quarterly release
    Expect 7000 Merchants, 600,000 customers, $60 million merchant sales, $2.88 million fees

    Quarter after that (christmas quarter)
    Expect 9000 Merchants (likely start targeting medium merchants), 1 million customers, $100 million merchant sales, $4.8 million fees

    For 2019 calender year expecting $11 million revenue in merchant fees.

    Quarter after that will be slower, merchants will be desperate to increase sales, they will sign more up, customer growth will slow, merchant sales will be down and sale with merchant sales fees.
    Expect 11,000 merchants, 1.2 million customers, $90 million merchant sales, $4.32 million fees

    Quarter after that, these guys will want to go for the even bigger fish.
    Expect 12,500 merchants, 1.6 million customers, $130 million merchant sales, $6.24 million fees

    I'll skip the rest, but ...2020 calender year revenue for fees would be about $30 million (compared to $11 million prior)
    2021 fee revenue would be $75 million
    2022 fee revenue would be $200 million

    With about a 3 year projection we would have a $2 billion company based on 10x revenues. $11.25 per share at 2022
    *likely more capital raising and dilution during that time.
    SB, Thank you for your posting, interesting share launched yesterday and a huge variety of comments on H C as you also posted , hard for a unimformed follower to make a judgement call here apart from " investing " a small parcel on the suckitandsee basis.

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    Sb, dipped my foot in here today, partly you, APT, and FOMO, TWT.

  4. #4
    2019 NZ Stock Picking Winner silverblizzard888's Avatar
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    Should be a good one for the long term if it performs as it has

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    Quote Originally Posted by silverblizzard888 View Post
    Should be a good one for the long term if it performs as it has
    Yes and that most important word in the English language , "if " !!

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    Aren't we likely to see margin pressure now there is all this competition coming through emulating afterpay. I think the flexigroup has a payment system, and when I bought on super cheap the otherday there was 2 options, (one afterpay, and another one)

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    Other one was zip asx z1p

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    Biggest risk for sezzle I see is that they really only have mostly smaller merchants, who the majority seem to be using Shopify. Wouldn't take much for Shopify to flick a switch to integrate installment payments natively, which would stop their growth instantaneously.

    Afterpay is somewhat protected from this risk, as they are going after the big name merchants who are outside the Shopify eco-system, and use custom CMS's, Demandware etc, and need instore integrations as well.

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    SZL Hit $8-00 today ( don't mention APT!! )

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    Now in a TRADING HALT, announcement coming

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