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Thread: M7t

  1. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by RupertBear View Post
    Down 13% to 0.54 OUCH!
    The drop is nothing more than market sentiment in action. I am happy to see it drop as it allows me to buy more now at a better price.
    It really amazes me sometimes how much the market is impacted by short-term thinking.

    In the absence of any more news M7T's price will continue to steadily decline. But by holding off, the risk is that any form of good news (which could be announced at any time) will mean missing the boat.

    Any purchase price under $1 for this share today will reap great rewards easily within a few years from now imho.

  2. #12
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    Yep the Bear is floating in a sea of red at the moment but I am not drowning (yet) as I see lots of future potential here so I will float it out and if it keeps dropping (heaps) I will probably buy a few more

  3. #13
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    I doubt it'll go much (if any) below these lows. $80m for a growth company with an ARR model is cheap imo. Im buying at this price.

  4. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lewylewylewy View Post
    I doubt it'll go much (if any) below these lows. $80m for a growth company with an ARR model is cheap imo. Im buying at this price.
    The Bear is pleased to have your company

  5. #15
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    It'll be nice to have someone to share tme success with

  6. #16
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    Hey all. What do you suppose sales growth will look like next year? This is the big question. Will they be subdued at $0.5m, or in the low tens of millions like last year?

    I have a concern that the recent sales growth is a one off, due to getting all the clients from their new partner arrangement with Client Outlook.

  7. #17
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    Just spitballing half-baked ideas here:

    I've been re reading the reports and giving this some more thought. I think we over paid.

    The reason i say this, is that it'll take another ~$7.5m contract to reach break even (doable), giving an extra ~$3m on the ARR for the year. The following year could be the same. Assuming no additional cost, that's $3m profit before tax. They probably are carrying a tax loss, so let's be generous and say that it's $3m NPAT.

    At a PE of 25, that's a MC of $75m. About where the SP is now. If we say that the SP is always forward looking, then today's value should be a MC of $75m.

    I use a PE of 25, as a PE of 20 assumes that 100% of NPAT is paid out as dividend, with the share yielding 5% ROI, plus 5 PE because it's a growth share. (Maybe the PE should be higher to consider the following years growth, or lower because the assumption of paying out 100% of NPAT is unreasonable? Perhaps the PE should be between 15-25?).

    Linear future growth prediction below:

    The following year, they may get $4m NPAT (say ~$6m ARR with no tax losses left), then ~$6m NPAT, then ~$8m the year after.

    Unless sales increase, i think it's double your money at today's prices in 3-4 years, not in 1-2 years as I had previously predicted.

    So today's price, i think is ok buying at $0.54, but they really need to continue to grow rate of sales in a non linear fashion to make this thing worthwhile. Probably need to do a bit more work on calculating an appropriate future PE to justify that.

  8. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lewylewylewy View Post
    Just spitballing half-baked ideas here:

    I've been re reading the reports and giving this some more thought. I think we over paid.

    The reason i say this, is that it'll take another ~$7.5m contract to reach break even (doable), giving an extra ~$3m on the ARR for the year. The following year could be the same. Assuming no additional cost, that's $3m profit before tax. They probably are carrying a tax loss, so let's be generous and say that it's $3m NPAT.

    At a PE of 25, that's a MC of $75m. About where the SP is now. If we say that the SP is always forward looking, then today's value should be a MC of $75m.

    I use a PE of 25, as a PE of 20 assumes that 100% of NPAT is paid out as dividend, with the share yielding 5% ROI, plus 5 PE because it's a growth share. (Maybe the PE should be higher to consider the following years growth, or lower because the assumption of paying out 100% of NPAT is unreasonable? Perhaps the PE should be between 15-25?).

    Linear future growth prediction below:

    The following year, they may get $4m NPAT (say ~$6m ARR with no tax losses left), then ~$6m NPAT, then ~$8m the year after.

    Unless sales increase, i think it's double your money at today's prices in 3-4 years, not in 1-2 years as I had previously predicted.

    So today's price, i think is ok buying at $0.54, but they really need to continue to grow rate of sales in a non linear fashion to make this thing worthwhile. Probably need to do a bit more work on calculating an appropriate future PE to justify that.
    Thanks for posting LewyLewyLewy, probably a bit of a gamble at this point in time I guess

  9. #19
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    Up 7% today! Boom! Probably be down again tomorrow but hey today is a good day so no worries

  10. #20
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    😭😓 i was wanting to buy more. Hopefully down tomorrow

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