ARB-ArborGen Holdings Ltd

[percy]

The selling pressure is curious. Volume is relatively light, but someone is motivated to sell and keeps hitting the bid.

The conspiracy theorist in me fears the price is being driven down on purpose so that when the buyout announcement comes, it can be at a premium to last trade. That would get the deal done but still undervalues the shares relative to what we all believe is the potential. Hope I'm wrong.

Go to www.hotcopper.com.au PTG thread and read Madamswer post ;Post #57998396 2/12/2021

[Maxtrade]

Looks like a trough at around the 24-25c level. It's very tempting to buy at those levels, even though I hold a reasonable amount already. The lower volumes tends to put downward pressure on the SP and sellers outweigh buyers by 3:1 at the moment. We are well below the highs of a few months ago but this plateau is still 5c up on where the stock was only 6 months ago. Fundamentally nothing has changed - the reasons for buying in 6 months ago still hold. I'd only sell if I had to as I think it will kick up again once the strategic direction of the company becomes clear.

In comes the cavalry. bids starting to stack up on the buy side with some volume. Took a while but has signs of a rally about to start.

[Thistle72]

Go to www.hotcopper.com.au PTG thread and read Madamswer post ;Post #57998396 2/12/2021

Point taken, and I largely agree. It is foolish to speculate too wildly on light volume, small dollar movements. My frustration that we have not heard any result from the Strategic Review (5 months now) got the better of me.

Though the June 29 Strategic Review announcement implies that the acquisition proposal was rejected, it is not stated explicitly. Does anyone recall Arborgen mgmt actually saying "we rejected the bid"?

[Maxtrade]

Point taken, and I largely agree. It is foolish to speculate too wildly on light volume, small dollar movements. My frustration that we have not heard any result from the Strategic Review (5 months now) got the better of me.

Though the June 29 Strategic Review announcement implies that the acquisition proposal was rejected, it is not stated explicitly. Does anyone recall Arborgen mgmt actually saying "we rejected the bid"?

Maybe just part of negotiation tactics.

[Thistle72]

Interesting to look back on this analysis done by Sandell Asset Management in 2011, when they owned 14.4% of Rubicon.

https://www.10xebitda.com/wp-content...n-Oct-2011.pdf

At that time, they outlined a strategy to boost the share price (then $0.40 NZD) by either putting the entire company on the block, or selling the controlling interest in Tenon and then listing ArborGen on Nasdaq. Their “normalized valuation” forecast for ArborGen was $500m USD.

10 long years later, Sandell has lost its patience (sold out in 2017), and we are still waiting to find out if a US-listing is a remotely feasible outcome.

[THEONE]

They have been talking allot more about carbon capture lately. Apparently their trees capture allot more carbon.
With all the green money from Companies and Governments, this could be a real game changer.

Seems like something is going to happen in near future..Without NZ operations, no point being based in NZ.

[Maxtrade]

If those last 2 sticky sell bids were to be removed, only the 1 seller at 0.255 and the other at 0.27, then looks like building support could lead to a pretty swift rally pushing back up to where it was previously maintaining above 0.315. Until we then get further updates to push SP to next level.

[biker]

Deleted post

[biker]

Great news. ARB pointing towards reaching its potential at last. A slow burner but anticipating the share price catching fire at some stage down the track.


MKTUPDTE: ARB: ArborGen Holdings Updates Market

29 December 2021

ArborGen Holdings Limited (NZX: ARB) (the Company or ArborGen) announced
today that following completion of the sale of ArborGen's New Zealand and
Australian businesses for NZ$22.25 million (the ANZ Transaction), it has
repaid the US$2.88 million of sub-ordinated debt raised in 2019 from certain
directors / major shareholders and senior management needed to fund the
US$14.4 million acquisition of ArborGen's headquarters in Ridgeville, South
Carolina. The Company has also reduced its Synovus working capital facility
by US$5.5 million, which combined with the sub-ordinated debt repayment, will
result in annual cash interest cost savings of approximatively US$0.4
million.

The Company also announced that its business in Brazil (ArborGen do Brazil)
has executed an agreement to acquire an 8-10 million capacity pine nursery
located in Canoinhas, Santa Catarina, Brazil. The acquisition cost is
estimated at BR$5 million (US$0.7 million) including certain capital
expenditure items.

ArborGen's CEO, Andrew Baum, said "Increasing domestic and export demand, new
pulp mills and strong charcoal markets resulting from increasing iron ore
demand, are collectively driving strong demand for eucalyptus and softwood in
Brazil. ArborGen has grown to become one of the largest commercial suppliers
of eucalyptus and loblolly pine seedlings in the Brazilian market,
replicating its US strategy to convert the market to products with superior
genetics in Brazil."

"We are projecting Brazil's earnings to more than double next fiscal year
(fiscal year ending March 2023) driven primarily by stronger pricing for both
our eucalyptus and pine seedlings, and increased sales. The acquisition of
the Canoinhas nursery will further accelerate this earnings growth and
strengthen ArborGen's position as the leading supplier of pine genetics in
Brazil."

[LoungeLizzard]

Great news. ARB pointing towards reaching its potential at last. A slow burner but anticipating the share price catching fire at some stage down the track.


MKTUPDTE: ARB: ArborGen Holdings Updates Market

29 December 2021

ArborGen Holdings Limited (NZX: ARB) (the Company or ArborGen) announced
today that following completion of the sale of ArborGen's New Zealand and
Australian businesses for NZ$22.25 million (the ANZ Transaction), it has
repaid the US$2.88 million of sub-ordinated debt raised in 2019 from certain
directors / major shareholders and senior management needed to fund the
US$14.4 million acquisition of ArborGen's headquarters in Ridgeville, South
Carolina. The Company has also reduced its Synovus working capital facility
by US$5.5 million, which combined with the sub-ordinated debt repayment, will
result in annual cash interest cost savings of approximatively US$0.4
million.

The Company also announced that its business in Brazil (ArborGen do Brazil)
has executed an agreement to acquire an 8-10 million capacity pine nursery
located in Canoinhas, Santa Catarina, Brazil. The acquisition cost is
estimated at BR$5 million (US$0.7 million) including certain capital
expenditure items.

ArborGen's CEO, Andrew Baum, said "Increasing domestic and export demand, new
pulp mills and strong charcoal markets resulting from increasing iron ore
demand, are collectively driving strong demand for eucalyptus and softwood in
Brazil. ArborGen has grown to become one of the largest commercial suppliers
of eucalyptus and loblolly pine seedlings in the Brazilian market,
replicating its US strategy to convert the market to products with superior
genetics in Brazil."

"We are projecting Brazil's earnings to more than double next fiscal year
(fiscal year ending March 2023) driven primarily by stronger pricing for both
our eucalyptus and pine seedlings, and increased sales. The acquisition of
the Canoinhas nursery will further accelerate this earnings growth and
strengthen ArborGen's position as the leading supplier of pine genetics in
Brazil."

Agreed. ARB is still under the radar but the stars seem to be aligning in its favour. It's only a matter of time before the ratings agencies pick up on it and the SP rockets.