ARB-ArborGen Holdings Ltd

[TheHunter]

ARB have been promoting their growth in coming years. Is it that the growth isn't understood by the market or just that the market is wary of over promising and under delivering, as they have done for many many years.

ARB is saying that this time is different but understandably the market doesn't yet believe the promises.

Completely agree there is negative sentiment based on historic performance but here lies the opportunity.

The data gives me confidence that this time is different. Two key points:

#1 it is only until very recently you have been able to derive from the announcements how profitable MCP actually is compared to OP.

#2 The seedling growth cycle takes around three years, meaning the 2021 pollination activity which makes up the seedling supply for 2023 is already taking place. As per the results announcement, the activity saw an unprecedented number of flowers, giving a significant boost to 2023 volumes. This is of course subject to inherent weather risk but does provide confidence that MCP supply is indeed increasing and this is the key driver of earnings.

Take the time to put some numbers behind these two points and their impact on earnings, I think you'll be pleasantly surprised.

[biker]

I like the quote below, from the annual report. Who knows where this will lead.
The previous Rubicon CEO, (still a related top 20 shareholder as is the previous company secretary) had the vision (or fantasy?) of ArboGen becoming the next Monsanto. Hopefully there are parties looking more closely at the potential.

“Outside of forestry, our somatic embryo capabilities, genomics and tissue culture expertise create a number of opportunities for us in other crop species. We have already deployed our technology in sugar cane, developed tissue culture protocols for cannabis and are evaluating other opportunities including coffee and cocoa production. We are also evaluating opportunities to license elements of our technology platform in areas that are not competitive with us.”

[biker]

Double post

[ralph]

https://www.odt.co.nz/business/share...Vv9ynJYuHfPFrE looks like a big move indeed

[ari]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...674/350360.pdf

[TheHunter]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...674/350360.pdf

Slide 13 sums it all up nicely

Exciting times ahead.

[ari]

Slide 13 sums it all up nicely

Exciting times ahead.

20+ and coming to fruition....as long as I have been invested in company (Rubicon). Bought on hype early on then chased down to protect....to now requiring a further .09c on todays price to just break even!!!

[ari]

Require a crystal ball on this one....will Arborgen hold>sell>or list? From history shareholders have been sold out on most occasions...Fletcher Challenge>Fletcher Paper>Fletcher Energy>Capstone etc

[TheHunter]

Require a crystal ball on this one....will Arborgen hold>sell>or list? From history shareholders have been sold out on most occasions...Fletcher Challenge>Fletcher Paper>Fletcher Energy>Capstone etc

Hard to say but I struggle to see why you would sell right before MCP volumes finally increase. This is the opportunity for mgmt to finally walk their talk from the last few years.

I see it as good timing for a US listing.

[ari]

Hard to say but I struggle to see why you would sell right before MCP volumes finally increase. This is the opportunity for mgmt to finally walk their talk from the last few years.

I see it as good timing for a US listing.

Yep, all the factors that were against attempted IPO back in 2011 have certainly turned....