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Member
 Originally Posted by dubya
A nice cash boost courtesy of the US government.
I'm looking forward to this "significant" increase of MCP volumes now that we are in FY22.
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Originally Posted by dubya
In my view, not really. Covid subsidies increase $1.1m and the forecast range goes from$10-$11 to $11-$11.5. Unless at the bottom of the forecast range, the increase in EBITDA is less than the increase in covid subsidies. Existing activities have gone backwards but oneoff support payments have increased.
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I've held since day one and not startling news. Certainly not sufficient to cover my $50k+ loss. I concur with dubya's sentiments that listing on the US market is still the appropriate path going forward.
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It's been along time between drinks but finally something positive....https://www.directbroking.co.nz/Dire...spx?id=5695251
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Member
It has always been hard to gauge how much margin expansion MCP will actually drive, I was pleasantly surprised with the following statement:
"The margin growth potential for ArborGen is substantial as MCP margins are 6-8 times higher than OP margins on an absolute basis."
I don't believe the market has fully acknowledged the potential impact on earnings growth here, particularly looking at the MCP supply forecast for FY23 (almost 2x FY22).
If delivered, I wouldn't be surprised to see EBITDA in the mid 20's for CY23.
Last edited by TheHunter; 17-06-2021 at 02:48 AM.
Reason: CY not FY*
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Member
Originally Posted by ari
Originally Posted by TheHunter
It has always been hard to gauge how much margin expansion MCP will actually drive, I was pleasantly surprised with the following statement:
"The margin growth potential for ArborGen is substantial as MCP margins are 6-8 times higher than OP margins on an absolute basis."
I don't believe the market has fully acknowledged the potential impact on earnings growth here, particularly looking at the MCP supply forecast for FY23 (almost 2x FY22).
If delivered, I wouldn't be surprised to see EBITDA in the mid 20's for FY23.
I agree.
Their extensive genetic database built up over many years must be extremely valuable as intellectual property.
So when I see them say "Excellent progress was made on ArborGen's core strategy to grow supply and sale of its proprietary advanced genetic products (MCP seedlings) in its llargest market, the US, where it is the unparalleled leader" I can only think of the MOAT they have in comparison to any competitors.
Last edited by dubya; 28-05-2021 at 12:08 PM.
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Member
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Member
Yelp dubya 10.5% today time to sell me thinks
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Member
Originally Posted by ralph
Yelp dubya 10.5% today time to sell me thinks
Based on what Mr Ralph?
It's always good to hear opposing views but they do require explanation.
Last edited by TheHunter; 31-05-2021 at 07:30 PM.
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Member
Opposing views to what the hunter ! ,that may require explanation first.
Don't seem to be opposing anyone .
Last edited by ralph; 31-05-2021 at 10:29 PM.
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