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Member
Originally Posted by xafalcon
Your link is not working for me, could you please repost it
Nothing really interesting just a quick graph I made from MBIE declared reserves. Hopefully it works below.
Kupe_gas_forecast.JPG
Otherwise source data from here:
https://www.mbie.govt.nz/building-an...reserves-data/
Always fun to play around with to try and guess at what production level does someone start decommissioning their field. I suspect once the companies realise they will never be able to sell (due to ongoing liability conditions from Crown Minerals act) it will happen sooner than most people expect.
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Thanks, it's working now
I thinks it's always good to listen to others comments, so I can learn more about a situation
Does methanex still run their original site and the synfuel front end? I visited both sites in the late 80's as a university student studying industrial chemical engineering. I think methanex was called petralgas back then. And the synfuel plant was making high quality branched chain synthetic petrol with ZSM5 zeolite catalyst
I tend to think gas production will be extended as much as possible as LNG is an expensive option for late-stage (10 years time) fossil fuel use
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Member
Originally Posted by xafalcon
Thanks, it's working now
I thinks it's always good to listen to others comments, so I can learn more about a situation
Does methanex still run their original site and the synfuel front end? I visited both sites in the late 80's as a university student studying industrial chemical engineering. I think methanex was called petralgas back then. And the synfuel plant was making high quality branched chain synthetic petrol with ZSM5 zeolite catalyst
I tend to think gas production will be extended as much as possible as LNG is an expensive option for late-stage (10 years time) fossil fuel use
Methanex has its Waitara Valley permanently idled. Motunui swings between its trains swapping gas with Genesis in winter and running full bore over wet summers.
Petrochemical production underpins all investment in continued production. With out Methanex et al taking all the excess gas from the market, producing fields would need to have stop and start production seasonally. Which at their later life stage means big technical problems. Purchases on the spot out side those contracts, means industrial users pay unbelievable high prices (up to 25 $/GJ). Luckily the spot is a tiny percentage of the market.
Quarterly_gas_prices_NZ.JPG
Most likely the system runs until untidy failure and sky high gas prices start forcing out the last major customers. Too late to build an LNG facility to bridge the reserve gap and no way residential demand can justify the infrastructure needed. If one of the big producers drops out of the market and there is no industrial petrochemical users to swap gas, all cards off the table. Just look at the field declines despite the recent development drilling at Maui, onshore and interventions at Pohokura. From July 2022 to July 2023 Pohokura production dropped from ~110 TJ to under 80 TJ. That is in just one year!
Gas_production_by_field.JPG
Producers will eek out their last reserves and if behind close doors Methanex is still willing to sign long contracts, should give us a little time. Going to be interesting.
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