Power shares

[Davexl]

genesis boss reckons smelter might not close

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/122...r-hydro-spills

"Transpower said on Thursday that it intended to complete an upgrade of the South Island transmission network a year earlier than planned, by May 2022.

That will bring forward by a year the time when power from Meridian’s Manapouri hydro scheme could be redirected to other power users in the South Island, in the event that the Tiwai smelter does close."

That's a big improvement...

[Jantar]

...
To adhere to Jantars formula, does this mean the normal DEPTH within each pipe can vary at each site, eg 40% of capacity at one site, And say 90% at another?

Also curious why MereMere was only intended to last 20yrs, was it because the coal was expected to run out?

From my recollection I cannot confirm that the same diameter penstock was used at most stations, but I would not be surprised to find that at least Ohakuri, Atiamuri and Whakamaru all used the same diameter. That is because they were all designed to use the same flow of water. Each penstock is designed to carry 80 cumecs of water, so would use the same diameter pipe.

The difference is in the head, or height of the dam. Ohakuri has a working head of 40 m and generates 28 MW per generator, but down stream at Atiamuri the dam only has a working head of 30 m and generates 21 MW per generator. The flow of water is same, but the head is different.

Meremere, like most thermal power stations had a design life of 30 years. It actually lasted 33 years, so slightly longer than expected. Thermal stations are cheap to build compared to hydro, but have a short life and are generally much more expensive to run. Hydro is very expensive to build, but costs almost nothing to run and tend to last a long time.

Consider Coleridge. Commissioned in 1914 and still going strong. Waipori, first commissioned in 1904, and still running last year. There are now questions being asked about the seismic rating of the No 1 dam and whether to rebuild, carry out remedial work, or abandon it.

[Getty]

thank you for your help, Jantar

[Getty]

I must say, I was glad to be proved wrong, with my comments about turbo'ing those old hydros.

What a great credit to the engineers of the time, using the technology of the time, to design and build something so efficient, and enduring.

[tommy_d]

which gentailers own air dams in oz?
just curious....

[dibble]

To add to this, I think what you're really asking dibble is whether adding more head to a hydro-scheme will decrease efficiency?

.

Aha, yes that's closer. Thanks...and to Jantar and Snoopy. Learnt a little more than expected about physics, not sure how I will use it to boost my loot but understanding more about the industry cant be a bad thing.

[bull....]

"Transpower said on Thursday that it intended to complete an upgrade of the South Island transmission network a year earlier than planned, by May 2022.

That will bring forward by a year the time when power from Meridian’s Manapouri hydro scheme could be redirected to other power users in the South Island, in the event that the Tiwai smelter does close."

That's a big improvement...

rein forces my thinking that not much impact on bottom lines then

[Snoopy]

rein forces my thinking that not much impact on bottom lines then

I don't know how you can conclude that. All it means is that with Tiwai telling us they are going, there will be power stranded at the bottom of the South Island. There is no guarantee that power can be immediately deployed elsewhere. Indeed Fonterra in the South Island have shown little interest and are planning to transition from coal to wood chips to fuel their boilers and dryers.

This is sounding like a repeat of your 'get your income while you can' campaign to urge people to buy up gentailers last year. Those who rushed in on FOMO would have found the actual result of doing that was 'lose your capital while you can'. It was certainly disastrous advice for any investor, although maybe the real agenda was trying to entice the kind of share price movements that could be utilised by a trader like yourself?

SNOOPY

[Jantar]

rein forces my thinking that not much impact on bottom lines then

In the very long term you may be right. New Zealand's demand is growing at around 2% per annum. That equates to an increase in peak demand of around 130 MW per year. So in a less than 5 years the national peak demand will have grown by around the amount consumed by Tiwai, and in around 7 years the average demand will be there as well.

However looking at averages just hides the situation. We can still not get that extra energy north of Roxburgh due the power lines just not being big enough. Transpower have announced that they are fast tracking their CUWLP (Clutha Upper Waitaki Lines Project) and aiming for a completion date of May 2022. That will still not allow for all of that energy to be transferred north.

"CUWLP will increase capacity on transmission lines between Clutha and the Upper Waitaki Valley so additional generation can be exported from Southland. Its completion would enable about half of the electricity now used by Tiwai to be transmitted to Cook Strait."

From Energy News https://www.energynews.co.nz/news-st...e-now-may-2022

I can see that there will be some strange pricing signals over the next 5 to 7 years. The stranded energy in the lower South Island will cause wholesale prices there to fall dramatically. The extra transfer over the HVDC will see extra reserve requirements in the North Island and that will push up North Island whole sale prices so that there will be times with huge price spikes in the north. This will benefit Mercury and Genesis, Contact will probably be fairly neutral, and the loser will be Meridian.

Some of this disconnect in pricing can be recovered by the South Island generators purchasing FTRs (Financial Transmission Rights). These FTRs are sold via an auction process and there is no guarantee that any generator will get anywhere near the amount of rights they require.

[horus1]

remember about 10 years ago the electricity industry estimated load would increase by 50 % by 2020 . IT DIDN'T . It was flat . the Electricity load will be down for at least 5-6 years ,i.e. load below the present level. Prices will be held up domestically but drop on the spot at times.Watch the pressure to change the way the market works to the advantage of the generators.
With new technology , hydrogen ,solar , watch customers leave the wires as they have done in AU.