Power shares

[horus1]

Jantar have alook at the estimates by Transpower to justify the 400KV line to AK . That was the last overoptimistic estimation I was talking about,it only meant that customers are now paying for about $ 600m of redundant assets which should not have been built and will never be used. I have been at the top of this industry for 35 to 40 years , the engineers always want to spend capital and you have to be very careful that you are going to get a commercial return. I believe that rates of return now considering the risks are to low to commit any meaningful capital . The same argument applies to distribution and Transmission. New technologies are making it cheaper for domestic customers to go on there own than use the energy from the grid and that will get worse as the industry changes pricing to make the charges unavoidable . At least some will leave.

[Davexl]

Looks like Tiwai ain't over 'til it's over...Maybe I missed this...

New 'final decision' on aluminium smelter in four to six weeks, says Forsyth Barr

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/122...s-forsyth-barr

[Jantar]

Jantar have alook at the estimates by Transpower to justify the 400KV line to AK . That was the last overoptimistic estimation I was talking about,....

Those estimates were put forward in 2004 - 2005 following the 2002 drought. That is a bit more than 10 years ago, and it was very Auckland centric. The real increase in demand is due to the dairy conversions needing irrigation in the central South Island.

[bull....]

Looks like Tiwai ain't over 'til it's over...Maybe I missed this...

New 'final decision' on aluminium smelter in four to six weeks, says Forsyth Barr

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/122...s-forsyth-barr

at over til the fat lady sings as they say and this could be just what winston peters needs just before the election to crow about how he saved the smelter

check out the dow jones utilities big ascending triangle in play when it breaks upside should be a massive rotation into utilities . probably flow into our utilities although i see there has been a sustained investment in the likes of vct , spk , cnu already so leaves plenty of catchup for the gentailers

[fish]

Looks like Tiwai ain't over 'til it's over...Maybe I missed this...

New 'final decision' on aluminium smelter in four to six weeks, says Forsyth Barr

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/122...s-forsyth-barr

This sounds true- there is still a chance that commonsense will prevail .

[bull....]

i see meridan has put out a statement on the smelter

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/357659

the key points

they do not know about a decision in 4 - 6 weeks

but


this is the important bit

As has been widely reported, Meridian has put a confidential proposal to NZAS with the objective of allowing NZAS to close down the smelter over a longer period of time - Meridian has proposed up to four years

it hasnt been accepted yet but that is not a definitive no

also today we have contact saying

Contact was also “actively engaged” in negotiations for revised terms for electricity supply to the Tiwai smelter.

so judge for yourself , i read it as very much still under negotiation

[tango]

It makes sense that the power companies would try to negotiate a longer exit, particularly as Fonterra has been playing hardball and reportedly wants an even lower price for electricity supply than Meridian and contact were getting from NZAS.

[gains]

https://www.sharesies.nz/ourblog/202...-energy-sector - article posted on sharesies website. There's one thing I wanted to high light:

"Meridian’s portfolio is underpinned by renewable hydro-electricity, resulting in lower generation costs than other gentailers. As less generation is required nationally, that puts the company in a good position to maintain most of its current generation volumes. But this relies on being able to send its power north, which Transpower’s planned investment should enable."

A friend pointed me to this. Basically, sharesies is suggesting that Meridian will not be the losers from Tiwai closing.

From that new media release, I interpret it as NZAS has the offer on the table and it's stumped their plans. They're now reconsidering...

[macduffy]

Yes, the consensus is that MEL will be a long term winner from the closure of Tiwai. The question is, though, how long will it be before transmission lines are able to take the "surplus" power North where it is needed? Personally, I don't put a lot of store on a renegotiation with NZAS providing an answer to fill the complete period of surplus.

[bull....]

the herald is saying the 4 - 6 week decision is real on the smelter

Last week the Herald reported that Rio Tinto's global head of aluminium had told staff that a final decision on the future of the smelter would be announced in the next four to six weeks.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12355074