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Thread: Power shares

  1. #801
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    This is wrong, Blackrock are very active managers, they own iShares e.g. they are the index.[/QUOTE] Nope I'm correct. Have a read of Gaynor's article in Business Desk on Tuesday 12th.
    https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/p...-impact-on-nzx
    It might sit behind a firewall however, so you'll have to find it somehow from somewhere.

  2. #802
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    Contact 8m moves the needle one percent but Mel needs 24m currently holding 6.07%...

    Interesting times

  3. #803
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    I stand corrected, thanks for pointing that out KJM!

  4. #804
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    Quote Originally Posted by KJMLimited View Post
    Re thresholds, there is no 10% limit for Contact as they were sold off years ago. The upper barrier for Blackrock buying more Contact is therefore the 20% threshold at which a full takeover is triggered.
    KJM you are quite correct. Although, if you reread my post you will see I didn't say anything that contradicts what you said above. The 10% limit I mentioned relates to the state controlled gentailers, MEL, MCY and GNE only, and is a government imposed 'upper shareholding ownership limit' for any third party outside of government on 'just those three'.

    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; 15-01-2021 at 09:34 AM.
    Industry shorthand sees BNZ employees still called 'bankers' but ANZ employees now called 'anchors'. Westpac has opted out of banking industry shorthand...

  5. #805
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    KJM you are quite correct. Although, if you reread my post you will see I didn't say anything that contradicts what you said above. The 10% limit I mentioned relates to the state controlled gentailers, MEL, MCY and GNE only, and is a government imposed 'upper shareholding ownership limit' for any third party outside of government on 'just those three'.

    SNOOPY
    Thank you, I did know that. Just wanted to correct an assumption that Blackrock can just go and change the Index make up at their discretion.

  6. #806
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    Could NZ cope with this?
    "The extreme, widespread cold took markets by surprise. The spikes in energy demand during the bitter winter, coupled with weak wind generation, power plant closures and liquefied natural gas tanker delays highlighted the shortcomings of global energy systems in weather conditions that are only set to get more volatile.

    There could be more to come. A relatively rare weather phenomenon with the potential to disrupt the polar vortex -- the winds that usually keep cold air contained in the far north -- is threatening to send an Arctic blast across North America, Europe and Asia from late January"
    LNG price going through the roof too
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitte...072341642.html

  7. #807
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    Poorly, judging by the situation in early 2018 when lake levels fell to historic lows. As I recall they started the coal units at Huntley but spot prices still went wild. Luckily we where bailed out by early rain. The government made some noises at the time but basically did nothing which might be construed as constructive or useful.

    Fundamentally New Zealands infrastructure resilience model is based on the popular childrens game Jenga.

  8. #808
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    US of A of but applicable to NZ?
    "EOSE has a proprietary battery technology aimed at grid storage which is expected to grow significantly over the next decade. From a high level it’s fairly easy to understand that the more wind and solar energy that are deployed into the electricity grid the greater the demand for storage solutions given the uneven production of those power sources. This market is already large and growing rapidly. A report from Mackenzie called for grid storage to grow 13x in six years to 158 GWh in 2024. In the EOSE investor presentation from October they show market forecasts of 348 GWh our new build storage by 2030 or over $200 billion of storage investment"
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/439...content=link-3

  9. #809
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    Power companies on the up and up, gas out the back door in the low C world

    "Yates said an average home using gas for heating and cooking emits 1400 kilograms of carbon dioxide a year – about equal to 7500 kilometres in a small car.

    Provided by the national grid, the same amount of electricity would produce around 700 kilograms of carbon dioxide, according to Toitū Envirocare’s carbon calculator.?
    https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/...rgy-researcher

  10. #810
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    Quote Originally Posted by kiora View Post
    "Yates said an average home using gas for heating and cooking emits 1400 kilograms of carbon dioxide a year – about equal to 7500 kilometres in a small car.
    Well a typical, conventional small car (say a VW Golf 1.6) emits about 166g of Carbondioxde per Kilometer so this part is feasibly true.

    Per capita the average New Zealander emits approximately 9600 kg of carbon dioxide per year (about half that of an Australian or American, in line with someone in the UK or Germany) from fossil sources.
    Last edited by Tomtom; 20-01-2021 at 11:38 AM.

  11. #811
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    Tom I was more observing the C from using gas for home cooking & heating.
    I have always assumed it is more efficient to use gas directly in homes than using it to fire up a gas turbine for power generation

  12. #812
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    Per capita the average New Zealander emits approximately 9600 kg of carbon dioxide per year (about half that of an Australian or American, in line with someone in the UK or Germany) from fossil sources.
    Does that mean "New Zealanders" or (mainly) livestock on behalf of New Zealanders? The former would seem most unlikely, given that, eg 85-90% of our electricity is generated from renewable sources.

  13. #813
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    Quote Originally Posted by macduffy View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by Tomtom View Post
    ...from fossil sources.
    Does that mean "New Zealanders" or (mainly) livestock on behalf of New Zealanders? The former would seem most unlikely, given that, eg 85-90% of our electricity is generated from renewable sources.
    Well I'd imagine it's all the daily commuting livestock do. Unfortunately, with the way public transport is in rural areas, many can only really drive to work.

  14. #814
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    interesting ift are looking at selling trustpower as well as tllt. they must think the power sector not so good a sector to stay invested in anymore ? . the sector going to be disrupted thats why maybe. looking to re-enter one day
    bull
    One step ahead of the herd

  15. #815
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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    interesting ift are looking at selling trustpower as well as tllt. they must think the power sector not so good a sector to stay invested in anymore ? . the sector going to be disrupted thats why maybe. looking to re-enter one day
    I suspect IFT would love to keep TPW as it is a central part of their core cash generating business. This announcement is likely one or more of (a) pumping the valuation of IFT's assets as a defensive move for a potential takeover; (b) parts of TPW's business are earning insufficient returns - most likely the retail business - so any value from a one-off sale may exceed the forecast/expected returns; (c) TPW has some generation plans and needs capital to fund it, plus retail is relatively easy to re-enter at a later date; (d) government intervention in the sector has increased the risk of IFT owning TPW so they want to extract value while they can

    Also, the electricity retail sector is now so competitive I wouldn't be surprised to see some amalgamation over the next few years. Makes sense for TPW/IFT to have seen that coming and make the first move.

  16. #816
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    TPW only looking to sell its retail business, which contributes less profits than the generation side. Retail side of power business is arguably more exposed to disruption.

  17. #817
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    Just an interesting point (a bit off topic)...My solar power monitor informs me that our household has a total CO2 saving of 6.63 Tonnes to date (installed the panels 18 months ago).
    Admittedly our country emits less CO2 with hydroelectric power generation, but its interesting observing many countries of the world pushing consumers towards green micro-generation (subsidies etc) yet our so-called "green leaning"government of 4 years has been strangely silent..
    Perhaps one of the possible reasons .. After the installation of the import/export meter I questioned why I was only allowed to export a maximum of 3kw/hr back to the grid, only to be told that the run down state of the power lines in our area could not handle a higher amount..I was told I was lucky as if I lived a couple of kilometers further down the road I would have a limit of exporting only 1kw/hr..

    Sounds similar to what happened to our railway system...eh?
    Last edited by Hoop; Today at 11:03 AM.

  18. #818
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    The one thing with power retailers is the annual NZ market churn is ~20% per year, hence you are effectively buying an initial customer base of 231,000, of which this customer base you are expecting to lose 20% of those in the first year (probably higher when the name on the bill changes as people will look closer at them).

    Trustpower won't be the only boardroom discussing splitting their generation and distribution assets into two, however first mover advantage is definitely in their favour.

    With the power companies reselling internet connections, it would be an interesting play for an internet provider to buy TPW's retail customers and start selling power.

  19. #819
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hoop View Post
    Just an interesting point (a bit off topic)...My solar power monitor informs me that our household has a total CO2 saving of 6.63 Tonnes to date (installed the panels 18 months ago).
    Admittedly our country emits less CO2 with hydroelectric power generation, but its interesting observing many countries of the world pushing consumers towards green micro-generation (subsidies etc) yet our so-called "green leaning"government of 4 years has been strangely silent..
    Perhaps one of the possible reasons .. After the installation of the import/export meter I questioned why I was only allowed to export a maximum of 3kw/hr back to the grid, only to be told that the run down state of the power lines in our area could not handle a higher amount..I was told I was lucky as if I lived a couple of kilometers further down the road I would have a limit of exporting only 1kw/hr..

    Sounds similar to what happened to our railway system...eh?

    No sympathy from me regarding your solar panels I'm afraid.

    NZ has some of the cheapest and greenest power in the world. Your panels are more expensive relative to "conventional" energy delivery but also cause issues for network quality. Provided you still have a wire to your house you have the same fixed cost component as all other households. And you also create an additional problem because you'll be exporting power back into the grid at a time when it's not actually needed (hence why most other companies won't pay you much or anything to take it off you).

    The govt in NZ is absolutely right to steer well clear of propping up your private investment.

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