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Thread: Power shares

  1. #31
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    https://www.marketscreener.com/MERID...933/consensus/
    Analysts fair value of $4.28 before this latest announcement by Rio Tinto. I think its clear the risk profile has changed and MEL will cop the most "treatment" if Rio Tinto pull the plug as it will take many years to divert the power north. Time will tell. $5 looks full value to me in this current landscape of heightened risk and uncertainty.

    k14 - Keep posting mate, I'm liking the effort you make to share your point of view. I agree its unlikely that Rio will pull the pin but what is clear is that they want a better deal which will cost someone a lot of annual earnings, probably MEL. Rio seem very unhappy about transmission pricing and I don't think Transpower's review of their pricing model is helpful enough. Despite Labour's massive surplus I don't think they are of a mind to be helpful either.
    Normally I would say site make good costs would make a favourable resolution more likely but if they're up for ~ $60 capex to overhaul one of the pot lines, then that's also a factor that makes the outcome less certain.
    Last edited by Beagle; 24-10-2019 at 11:42 AM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  2. #32
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    Good to see Rio Tinto back for their regular top up of corporate welfare. Nice work if you can get it. Govt really needs a long term plan to reduce the effectiveness of this negotiating tactic.

  3. #33
    Membaa
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    FWIW, MoaningStar downgrades big time, cites Tiwai effect.

    Moaning Star Ratings 23/10/2019



    $ at posting
    MS $Value
    Reco
    % diff
    $ diff
    GNE
    $ 3.07
    $ 2.40
    Reduce
    22%
    $ 0.67
    MCY
    $ 5.04
    $ 3.90
    Reduce
    23%
    $ 1.14
    MEL
    $ 5.00
    $ 3.70
    Sell
    26%
    $ 1.30
    TPW
    $ 8.40
    $ 6.30
    Reduce
    25%
    $ 2.10

  4. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Baa_Baa View Post
    FWIW, MoaningStar downgrades big time, cites Tiwai effect.

    Moaning Star Ratings 23/10/2019



    $ at posting
    MS $Value
    Reco
    % diff
    $ diff
    GNE
    $ 3.07
    $ 2.40
    Reduce
    22%
    $ 0.67
    MCY
    $ 5.04
    $ 3.90
    Reduce
    23%
    $ 1.14
    MEL
    $ 5.00
    $ 3.70
    Sell
    26%
    $ 1.30
    TPW
    $ 8.40
    $ 6.30
    Reduce
    25%
    $ 2.10
    Lol Morningstar are shining stars for once.

  5. #35
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    Market doesn't like uncertainty. So from now, till March when the review is out, the SP for the power shares ain't looking too bright. If going purely for the div, I would rather opt for HLG.

  6. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by 44wishlists View Post
    Market doesn't like uncertainty. So from now, till March when the review is out, the SP for the power shares ain't looking too bright. If going purely for the div, I would rather opt for HLG.
    Absolutely.

  7. #37
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    I don't put much stock in moaning-blackhole but the point is that its highly likely that most of the true professional analysts will be downgrading for the significant extra risk and all the gentailiers have enjoyed an exceptional run.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  8. #38
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    Holders that paid near $5.50 are in for a whole lot of pain, capital loss will make divvies look miserable (Been there done that) PS-If it looks and smells overcooked then it is overcooked.

  9. #39
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    Holders that paid near $5.50 are in for a whole lot of pain, capital loss will make divvies look miserable (Been there done that) PS-If it looks and smells overcooked then it is overcooked.
    Like some other share at $18 eh mate...oh wait, that share pays no divvies to ease holders pain
    Anyway...aside from the fundamental change in the risk landscape its well worth noting that CEN, GNE and MEL have all broken down through their 100 day moving averages. For what its worth TPW and MCY haven't.
    Last edited by Beagle; 24-10-2019 at 12:31 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  10. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Like some other share at $18 eh mate...oh wait, that share pays no divvies to ease holders pain
    Anyway...aside from the fundamental change in the risk landscape its well worth noting that CEN, GNE and MEL have all broken down through their 100 day moving averages. For what its worth TPW and MCY haven't.
    That sounds very much like a code that you've sold your holdings.

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