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Thread: Power shares

  1. #91
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    I have seen 2-3 studies on the benefit to NZ of Tiwai. All have been negative for NZ. Get rid of it.

  2. #92
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    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/pol...onsensus-grows

    This quote made me laugh. "..investors who bought shares in the power companies partially privatised by the previous government would be burnt badly". Even today, even after the announcement, we've all still made a ton of money and people could lock in profits now if they want. So, badly burnt really doesn't apply. I mortgaged my house to the tune of $240,000 to buy power shares (something I won't do again!). It just seemed like one of those one in 30 to 40 year opportunities like when Labour privatized Telecom. I've recently reduced my position

    I'll keep my more modest Genesis holding for some years yet, regardless of Rio Tinto. This Labour Government's oil and gas policy has made Kupe a more valuable asset. Sadly I sold my CEN shares before they really took off over the last year. Oh well, it wasn't actually my money anyway and I felt I should give it back to the bank.
    Last edited by Bobdn; 30-10-2019 at 03:06 PM.

  3. #93
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    Yes Bobdn it makes you wonder how such uninformed people get to write major articles in our main newspapers !

  4. #94
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    Recent investors will be burnt, fair comment for those poor suckers.

  5. #95
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    Can't see how " "recent investors" can be classed as " investors who bought shares in the power companies partially privatised by the previous government would be burnt badly". Stretching it a bit there me thinks.
    Last edited by iceman; 30-10-2019 at 08:45 PM.

  6. #96
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Its not $30,000 per job. It seems widely accepted that the smelter is responsible for about 1000 employees and another 2,000 contractors and employees of other business's that rely on the smelter for their income. So its really about $10,000 per family as a one-off grant from National that supported families for many years now, much cheaper than the unemployment benefit which is a recurring benefit not a one-off. I wonder how these families who enjoy housing at some of the cheapest prices in New Zealand will cope having to shift elsewhere ? 3,000 families deeply affected....hmmmm, that's pretty significant !

    Secondly it won't be anything like as cheap as $200m to upgrade the transmission lines. That was a 2012 dollars estimate and that doesn't take into account the upgrade in transmission line between the south and north island. I think the true cost is likely to be much higher.
    If ever there was a time to close down Tiwai, it is now when NZ is enjoying full employment and there are employers screaming out for workers.

    Also, there are 235,000 migrant workers on temporary work visas - the Tiwai affected workers will be absorbed into the workforce in no time.

    As for the usual pathetic stories about them having to retrain or relocate elsewhere, tough cheese - most of us in our life time have had to do that to better our prospects - sometimes to other countries.

    When the car assembly industry in NZ was shut down over the 1990s, there were cries of anguish that the tens of thousands employed were doomed forever. Did not turn out that way and NZ benefited as consumers did not have to pay horrendous prices for poorly assembled cars from a protected industry.

    Same thing will happen with Tiwai closure - rest of the country will get cheaper electricity and businesses will become more competitive.

    BTW - I do own power company shares.

  7. #97
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    Interesting Balance but not sure it is that simple. Tiwai doesn't just employ an ex number of people. They provide a significant economic boost to a geographical area that is under utilised but contributes a significant amount to our national economy, from agriculture, fishing. and natural tourism. It also helps maintaining a reasonable population in the area, to support the vital primary industries down there.

    You say power will become cheap for Kiwis if Tiwai closes, but transporting all that electricity to the top of the North Island where you and Beagle live, from our environmentally friendly production in the South Island is expensive and would require a lot of money spent on upgrading transmission infrastructure in a safe and efficient manner. We do not want to end up like California that has annual fire disasters largely due to old, outdated and inefficient electricity infrastructure due to the population having grown to fast in relatively small geographical area far away from electricity generators.

    After spending the last couple of weeks in the crazy and stupid mess that is Auckland roading today, I personally think we should adjust our immigration laws to make the top of the North Island out of bounds for immigrants and send them down south for at least the first 5 years of their residency in NZ and allow them to buy only fully electric cars. Minimal time travelling to work (no traffic jams) and close to a huge source of cheap and environmentally friendly power supply and ample opportunity to work in primary (natural) industries. Ship them in from countries that are largely producing electricity from coal and we have done our bit for the environment.
    Also make it a condition of residency permit that a couple have only 2 children, to avoid unnecessary consumption and emissions.

    I digress :-)
    Last edited by iceman; 30-10-2019 at 10:09 PM.

  8. #98
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    Quote Originally Posted by iceman View Post
    Interesting Balance but not sure it is that simple. Tiwai doesn't just employ an ex number of people. The provide a significant economic boost to a geographical area that is under utilised but contributes a significant amount to our national economy, from agriculture, fishing. and natural tourism. It also helps maintaining a reasonable population in the area, to support the vital primary industries down there.

    You say power will become cheap for Kiwis if Tiwai closes, but transporting all that electricity to the top of the North Island where you and Beagle live, from our environmentally friendly production in the South Island is expensive and would require a lot of money spent on upgrading transmission infrastructure in a safe and efficient manner. We do not want to end up like California that has annual fire disasters largely due to old, outdated and inefficient electricity infrastructure due to the population having grown to fast in relatively small geographical area far away from electricity generators.

    After spending the last couple of weeks in the crazy and stupid mess that is Auckland roading today, I personally think we should adjust our immigration laws to make the top of the North Island out of bounds for immigrants and send them down south for at least the first 5 years of their residency in NZ and allow them to buy only fully electric cars. Minimal time travelling to work (no traffic jams) and close to a huge source of cheap and environmentally friendly power supply and ample opportunity to work in primary (natural) industries. Ship them in from countries that are largely producing electricity from coal and we have done our bit for the environment.
    Also make it a condition of residency permit that a couple have only 2 children, to avoid unnecessary consumption and emissions.

    I digress :-)
    Agree with you re Auckland and immigration policies - if only it is possible and as simple in the real world to attract quality migrants to live in Southland!

    As for infrastructure upgrade, it can be done and we should not wait for a crisis like when Auckland nearly ran out of power in 1998* to put in the transmission grid.

    *https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/a...ectid=12033654
    Last edited by Balance; 31-10-2019 at 07:26 AM.

  9. #99
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    Interesting perspective Balance thanks for sharing your viewpoint. Bogey in the room we haven't talked about is transmission losses. Even if the ALL the infrastructure was put in place to transport Manopouri power to Auckland what percentage gets lost in transmission losses ?

    Agree Iceman, Auckland roads are diabolically bad.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  10. #100
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Interesting perspective Balance thanks for sharing your viewpoint. Bogey in the room we haven't talked about is transmission losses. Even if the ALL the infrastructure was put in place to transport Manopouri power to Auckland what percentage gets lost in transmission losses ?

    Agree Iceman, Auckland roads are diabolically bad.
    Be better once the port is moved !

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