Power shares

[Balance]

Sorry, article is wrong and I was in charge in most of the SI for electricity in the 90's etc. The NZ electricity Industry is only 65 % non CO2 , the renewable bit isnot so important. Shows how good the PR people are doesn't it. That is fact.

So hydro-power supplied to Tiwai does not change its green credentials relative to say, China’s coal fired aluminium plants?

[bull....]

although caution is warranted in regard to tiwai , seems like a lot of over reaction to bail out of all power stocks.

cen - 14%
mel - 13%
mcy - 4%
gne - 4%
tpw + 3%
vct - 1%
ift + 1%

highlights that cen and mel have had quite a sell down last month but others have not , hardly a massive sell down occurring of the sector for the last month. looks like mel and cen have re rated the most due to profit taking on there out performance based on the news event. at the end of the day most people i would imagine are still well in the money and enjoying a good income from divs.

if tiwai were to close i would imagine a bigger correction were to occur to stock prices and dividends

[Blue Skies]

I see the drop in aluminium prices is being reported as a 'slump in prices', by implication providing justification for Tiwai closing the plant if they don't get an even better deal from Govt.
In a recent interview with Rod Oram, among other points he raised was that although prices have dropped, they are still right on the 10 year average. Prices have dropped from a recent peak to an average, they've been higher but also been lower.
Presumably the plants viability is based on averages rather than the peaks.
This seems fairly significant but doesn't seem to get a mention in any of the articles I've read in the main papers.
More pre negotiation PR spin?

[stoploss]

I see the drop in aluminium prices is being reported as a 'slump in prices', by implication providing justification for Tiwai closing the plant if they don't get an even better deal from Govt.
In a recent interview with Rod Oram, among other points he raised was that although prices have dropped, they are still right on the 10 year average. Prices have dropped from a recent peak to an average, they've been higher but also been lower.
Presumably the plants viability is based on averages rather than the peaks.
This seems fairly significant but doesn't seem to get a mention in any of the articles I've read in the main papers.
More pre negotiation PR spin?

Its PR spin , surely such a large company would have a forward hedging policy in the Aluminium market ...they obviously negotiate a long term price on the electricity so why wouldn't they marry that up on the other side.....

[Balance]

although caution is warranted in regard to tiwai , seems like a lot of over reaction to bail out of all power stocks.

cen - 14%
mel - 13%
mcy - 4%
gne - 4%
tpw + 3%
vct - 1%
ift + 1%

highlights that cen and mel have had quite a sell down last month but others have not , hardly a massive sell down occurring of the sector for the last month. looks like mel and cen have re rated the most due to profit taking on there out performance based on the news event. at the end of the day most people i would imagine are still well in the money and enjoying a good income from divs.

if tiwai were to close i would imagine a bigger correction were to occur to stock prices and dividends

Tiwai will NOT close - for 2 reasons :

1. It's election year in 2020 and this government of misfits is not going to lose an election for the sake of $30m to $50m - which it will happily throw Tiwai's way. If National and John Key can do it, why not Labour? Tiwai has timed its scare tactics to perfection - with the grubby one losing some of her gold dust with her u-turns and broken promises.

2. Rio has had to cease negotiations about building a replacement aluminium plant to utilize spare hydro-power in Malaysia because the Malaysians decided they can sell the power at higher prices than to attract a long term power guzzling plant . Also, the replacement cost for a new aluminum plant is estimated to be in excess of $2 billion.

[sb9]

Tiwai will NOT close - for 2 reasons :

1. It's election year in 2020 and this government of misfits is not going to lose an election for the sake of $30m to $50m - which it will happily throw Tiwai's way. If National and John Key can do it, why not Labour? Tiwai has timed its scare tactics to perfection - with the grubby one losing some of her gold dust with her u-turns and broken promises.

2. Rio has had to cease negotiations about building a replacement aluminium plant to utilize spare hydro-power in Malaysia because the Malaysians decided they can sell the power at higher prices than to attract a long term power guzzling plant . Also, the replacement cost for a new aluminum plant is estimated to be in excess of $2 billion.

Agree with that, just the usual scaremongering by Tiwai to twist Govt's arm in an election year and get a handout...

[Snow Leopard]

...2. Rio has had to cease negotiations about building a replacement aluminium plant to utilize spare hydro-power in Malaysia because the Malaysians decided they can sell the power at higher prices than to attract a long term power guzzling plant ....

Yes, they sell it to me at RM0.27/kWh (delivered to the air-con).

I thought the Rio negotiations ceased in early 2012.

I could bore the pants off you with details of the Sarawak electricity system and it's future aspirations, but if you are interested it is on that internet thingy.

[Beagle]

although caution is warranted in regard to tiwai , seems like a lot of over reaction to bail out of all power stocks.

cen - 14%
mel - 13%
mcy - 4%
gne - 4%
tpw + 3%
vct - 1%
ift + 1%

highlights that cen and mel have had quite a sell down last month but others have not , hardly a massive sell down occurring of the sector for the last month. looks like mel and cen have re rated the most due to profit taking on there out performance based on the news event. at the end of the day most people i would imagine are still well in the money and enjoying a good income from divs.

if tiwai were to close i would imagine a bigger correction were to occur to stock prices and dividends

Has been a sizeable correction and some more today as well. The market has long exhibited a strong dislike for fundamental uncertainty and until this Tiwai point thing is resolved...

[Balance]

Has been a sizeable correction and some more today as well. The market has long exhibited a strong dislike for fundamental uncertainty and until this Tiwai point thing is resolved...

Therein lies the opportunities in the market?

Think ATM, Serko, Xero, Synlait and FBU (Ralph Waters' time) when uncertainty allowed shrewd investors to buy in and make mega returns.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/117...minium-smelter

To me, it's very clear that Rio Tinto has the full measure of this current pathetic U-turning Labour government - they will win the concessions they want - because it's election year in 2020.

It's that simple.

So happy to add to my power shareholdings on the backfoot as the 'frightened' ones sell out.

[Airw0lf]

Therein lies the opportunities in the market?

Think ATM, Serko, Xero, Synlait and FBU (Ralph Waters' time) when uncertainty allowed shrewd investors to buy in and make mega returns.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/117...minium-smelter

To me, it's very clear that Rio Tinto has the full measure of this current pathetic U-turning Labour government - they will win the concessions they want - because it's election year in 2020.

It's that simple.

So happy to add to my power shareholdings on the backfoot as the 'frightened' ones sell out.

Just watch out - this government is a big fan of exporting hydrogen from NZ one day and zero carbon electricity. They might see Tiwai exiting as a great way to kill off Huntly and also start producing green hydrogen.