sharetrader
Page 17 of 115 FirstFirst ... 71314151617181920212767 ... LastLast
Results 161 to 170 of 1147

Thread: Power shares

  1. #161
    Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2019
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    481

    Default

    I see aluminium prices are currently at their lowest in 3 years and on a steep downward trajectory... wonder if this and the current economic crisis will be the catalyst for Rio Tinto pulling the plug so to speak on Tiwai

  2. #162
    Guru
    Join Date
    Jul 2004
    Location
    Bolivia.
    Posts
    4,855

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by 850man View Post
    I see aluminium prices are currently at their lowest in 3 years and on a steep downward trajectory... wonder if this and the current economic crisis will be the catalyst for Rio Tinto pulling the plug so to speak on Tiwai
    Remediation costs for closure would be significant. Might close down a few potlines......?

  3. #163
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    21,362

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Sideshow Bob View Post
    Remediation costs for closure would be significant. Might close down a few potlines......?
    That's spooky, you read my mind. I was thinking exactly the same thing earlier today.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  4. #164
    Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2016
    Posts
    91

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by 850man View Post
    I see aluminium prices are currently at their lowest in 3 years and on a steep downward trajectory... wonder if this and the current economic crisis will be the catalyst for Rio Tinto pulling the plug so to speak on Tiwai
    Yes, but if you convert them to NZD then they are not much different to 6 months ago. I am sceptical that Rio would change their decision of staying open/closing due to COVID19. They would have largely already made up their mind prior to the outbreak. One theory I heard recently is that they will announce closure but just to get more leverage with the power companies for a better deal then later this year they will reverse their decision and stay open. Pretty risky strategy though. If they didn't already have enough of the general population against them, this would cement them as public enemy #1.

  5. #165
    Legend Balance's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2003
    Posts
    21,489

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by 850man View Post
    I see aluminium prices are currently at their lowest in 3 years and on a steep downward trajectory... wonder if this and the current economic crisis will be the catalyst for Rio Tinto pulling the plug so to speak on Tiwai
    Like good farmers know that droughts do happen but we are okay in a country blessed with plentiful rain , Rio Tinto does not make multi-billion investment decisions based upon short term events.

  6. #166
    IMO
    Join Date
    Aug 2010
    Location
    Floating Anchor Shoals
    Posts
    9,698

    Default

    according to industry
    More smelters announce possible closure due to high power costs

    Pacific Aluminum, a division of Rio Tinto Group, recently reported a loss due to high power and transmission costs at its Tiwai Point aluminum smelter in New Zealand, according to industry reports.
    The company noted rising power costs were more harmful than weak aluminum prices, which dropped by around 15% last year.
    The company previously announced it would make a decision on whether to keep the smelter operating by the end of March 2020.
    Australian operations face similar issues.
    According to a recent report from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, Australia’s four major aluminum smelters all face critical power issues that could result in closures.

  7. #167
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2002
    Location
    auckland, , New Zealand.
    Posts
    10,993

    Default

    aluminium at new lows today in US dollars

    Coronavirus is double shock for China's giant aluminium sector

    https://www.reuters.com/article/chin...-idUSL8N2AL4O8


    Aluminium producer Norsk Hydro says coronavirus will likely impact demand, activities

    https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/alum...ctivities-2020

    will the lower dollar and power company subsidies ( if they do it ) be enough to keep tiwai open against the backdrop of lower world demand. Rio is due to announce soon there decision.
    one step ahead of the herd

  8. #168
    Advanced Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2001
    Location
    chch, , New Zealand.
    Posts
    2,494

    Default

    No doubt an impossible question to answer, but if Tiwai does close then how much more could it knock off the current prices? They are starting to look pretty beat up, and could closure already be partly built in?

  9. #169
    Advanced Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Location
    Wellington
    Posts
    2,451

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by ratkin View Post
    No doubt an impossible question to answer, but if Tiwai does close then how much more could it knock off the current prices? They are starting to look pretty beat up, and could closure already be partly built in?
    We would all be winners , just as with the reduced prices at the pump due to less oil demand . If they toss the toys out of the cot and go home , we can distribute that power
    to NZ consumers at maybe 14 cents a unit instead of the 18-23 odd we all pay now . Rumour has it Rio was maybe paying 5 cents a unit , so its a win ,win.

  10. #170
    Advanced Member trackers's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Location
    Christchurch, , New Zealand.
    Posts
    2,227

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by ratkin View Post
    No doubt an impossible question to answer, but if Tiwai does close then how much more could it knock off the current prices? They are starting to look pretty beat up, and could closure already be partly built in?
    I've got a friend fairly high up in Meridian, so I've got an insight to this.

    Essentially from what I understand, Rio want to negotiate now, whilst they still have leverage. Their operation here is profitable (note: pre this disaster), and is 'eco friendly' so what they are saying is largely bluster.

    At the moment the hydro station is connected directly to tiwai, and not anywhere else. There is a 2 year programme to link it to the main grid, which will then have dual power supplies north and be great to the country.

    So if Rio walk away, Meridian take a 2 year max hit which is very doable for them in what is a highly profitable period. Rio know this and are trying to lock something in while they still have some power ( yay pun!)

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •