sharetrader
Page 2 of 35 FirstFirst 12345612 ... LastLast
Results 21 to 40 of 692

Thread: Power shares

  1. #21
    Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2016
    Posts
    74

    Default

    For anyone interested in hearing some information from the horses mouth, Meridian held an investor call yesterday. You can listen to it here https://www.meridianenergy.co.nz/investors

  2. #22
    Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2012
    Posts
    344

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Arthur View Post
    Last time they tried this blackmail he folded like a wet newspaper
    Tiwai point is the worlds most inefficient aluminium plant. Closing it is pretty certain this time around. Might have to encourage oil exploration in the deep south to take up a bit of slack.....yeah right.

  3. #23
    Advanced Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Kerikeri
    Posts
    1,517

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by k14 View Post
    For anyone interested in hearing some information from the horses mouth, Meridian held an investor call yesterday. You can listen to it here https://www.meridianenergy.co.nz/investors
    Thanks. Appreciate the link.

  4. #24
    Guru
    Join Date
    Jul 2002
    Location
    New Zealand.
    Posts
    3,299

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Arthur View Post
    Last time they tried this blackmail he folded like a wet newspaper
    Arthur, Last time I heard Jacinda DID NOT have any balls, she has a lot of things, teeth etc , but NO BALLS !

  5. #25
    Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    245

    Default

    Hope never to check either of them myself, but he showed all the balls of a gelding when he folded to Rio's "Bluff"

  6. #26
    Doggedly sniffing out more food Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    16,592

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by k14 View Post
    For anyone interested in hearing some information from the horses mouth, Meridian held an investor call yesterday. You can listen to it here https://www.meridianenergy.co.nz/investors
    Welcome to the forum and thank you.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  7. #27
    Legend
    Join Date
    Jan 2002
    Location
    auckland, , New Zealand.
    Posts
    6,381

    Default

    if you think the smelter wont close , good opportunity? rates are not going higher anytime soon
    bull
    One step ahead of the herd

  8. #28
    Trying to get outta here
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    7,327

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    if you think the smelter wont close , good opportunity? rates are not going higher anytime soon
    Good opportunity for what, losing capital.

  9. #29
    Advanced Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Kerikeri
    Posts
    1,517

    Default

    Just listened to the investor presentation....Well worthwhile if you have the time.
    I was impressed by Neal Barclay.

    As an aside, but nevertheless interesting, everyone asking questions was male.

  10. #30
    Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2016
    Posts
    74

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Welcome to the forum and thank you.
    Thanks, long time lurker!

    Cliff notes of the call:
    - Meridian not going to "bend over" and take a hit for the rest of the market (those were the CEO's words not mine).
    - Sounds like Meridian do pretty extensive modelling to determine the financial position of the smelter and they believe it is cash flow positive at the current Alu prices.
    - Big lump of CAPEX ($63M) required to continue operation of one of their pot lines. Meridian seem quite skeptical at the quantum of CAPEX required and to a lesser extent the timing.
    - Around $110M of spend by Transpower required on lower south island grid improvements to allow the power to get out of Southland (this impacts both Manapouri and the Clutha stations). Then an additional $150M required to upgrade the HVDC link. Timing would be ~3 summers for lower south island upgrades and 5 years for HVDC upgrades. During this time the effect on all south island generators would be quite heavy with the stations further south effected the most.

    My take is this is just posturing by Rio Tinto to get a better deal. They are not going to shut down a factory that makes money. Time will tell (lets see how well this post ages!).

  11. #31
    Doggedly sniffing out more food Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    16,592

    Default

    https://www.marketscreener.com/MERID...933/consensus/
    Analysts fair value of $4.28 before this latest announcement by Rio Tinto. I think its clear the risk profile has changed and MEL will cop the most "treatment" if Rio Tinto pull the plug as it will take many years to divert the power north. Time will tell. $5 looks full value to me in this current landscape of heightened risk and uncertainty.

    k14 - Keep posting mate, I'm liking the effort you make to share your point of view. I agree its unlikely that Rio will pull the pin but what is clear is that they want a better deal which will cost someone a lot of annual earnings, probably MEL. Rio seem very unhappy about transmission pricing and I don't think Transpower's review of their pricing model is helpful enough. Despite Labour's massive surplus I don't think they are of a mind to be helpful either.
    Normally I would say site make good costs would make a favourable resolution more likely but if they're up for ~ $60 capex to overhaul one of the pot lines, then that's also a factor that makes the outcome less certain.
    Last edited by Beagle; 24-10-2019 at 12:42 PM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  12. #32
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2014
    Posts
    402

    Default

    Good to see Rio Tinto back for their regular top up of corporate welfare. Nice work if you can get it. Govt really needs a long term plan to reduce the effectiveness of this negotiating tactic.

  13. #33
    Membaa
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Location
    Paradise
    Posts
    3,184

    Default

    FWIW, MoaningStar downgrades big time, cites Tiwai effect.

    Moaning Star Ratings 23/10/2019



    $ at posting
    MS $Value
    Reco
    % diff
    $ diff
    GNE
    $ 3.07
    $ 2.40
    Reduce
    22%
    $ 0.67
    MCY
    $ 5.04
    $ 3.90
    Reduce
    23%
    $ 1.14
    MEL
    $ 5.00
    $ 3.70
    Sell
    26%
    $ 1.30
    TPW
    $ 8.40
    $ 6.30
    Reduce
    25%
    $ 2.10

  14. #34
    Trying to get outta here
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    7,327

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Baa_Baa View Post
    FWIW, MoaningStar downgrades big time, cites Tiwai effect.

    Moaning Star Ratings 23/10/2019



    $ at posting
    MS $Value
    Reco
    % diff
    $ diff
    GNE
    $ 3.07
    $ 2.40
    Reduce
    22%
    $ 0.67
    MCY
    $ 5.04
    $ 3.90
    Reduce
    23%
    $ 1.14
    MEL
    $ 5.00
    $ 3.70
    Sell
    26%
    $ 1.30
    TPW
    $ 8.40
    $ 6.30
    Reduce
    25%
    $ 2.10
    Lol Morningstar are shining stars for once.

  15. #35
    Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2017
    Posts
    136

    Default

    Market doesn't like uncertainty. So from now, till March when the review is out, the SP for the power shares ain't looking too bright. If going purely for the div, I would rather opt for HLG.

  16. #36
    Trying to get outta here
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    7,327

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by 44wishlists View Post
    Market doesn't like uncertainty. So from now, till March when the review is out, the SP for the power shares ain't looking too bright. If going purely for the div, I would rather opt for HLG.
    Absolutely.

  17. #37
    Doggedly sniffing out more food Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    16,592

    Default

    I don't put much stock in moaning-blackhole but the point is that its highly likely that most of the true professional analysts will be downgrading for the significant extra risk and all the gentailiers have enjoyed an exceptional run.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  18. #38
    Trying to get outta here
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    7,327

    Default

    Holders that paid near $5.50 are in for a whole lot of pain, capital loss will make divvies look miserable (Been there done that) PS-If it looks and smells overcooked then it is overcooked.

  19. #39
    Doggedly sniffing out more food Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    16,592

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    Holders that paid near $5.50 are in for a whole lot of pain, capital loss will make divvies look miserable (Been there done that) PS-If it looks and smells overcooked then it is overcooked.
    Like some other share at $18 eh mate...oh wait, that share pays no divvies to ease holders pain
    Anyway...aside from the fundamental change in the risk landscape its well worth noting that CEN, GNE and MEL have all broken down through their 100 day moving averages. For what its worth TPW and MCY haven't.
    Last edited by Beagle; 24-10-2019 at 01:31 PM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  20. #40
    Trying to get outta here
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
    Posts
    7,327

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Like some other share at $18 eh mate...oh wait, that share pays no divvies to ease holders pain
    Anyway...aside from the fundamental change in the risk landscape its well worth noting that CEN, GNE and MEL have all broken down through their 100 day moving averages. For what its worth TPW and MCY haven't.
    That sounds very much like a code that you've sold your holdings.

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •