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Thread: Power shares

  1. #31
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    https://www.marketscreener.com/MERID...933/consensus/
    Analysts fair value of $4.28 before this latest announcement by Rio Tinto. I think its clear the risk profile has changed and MEL will cop the most "treatment" if Rio Tinto pull the plug as it will take many years to divert the power north. Time will tell. $5 looks full value to me in this current landscape of heightened risk and uncertainty.

    k14 - Keep posting mate, I'm liking the effort you make to share your point of view. I agree its unlikely that Rio will pull the pin but what is clear is that they want a better deal which will cost someone a lot of annual earnings, probably MEL. Rio seem very unhappy about transmission pricing and I don't think Transpower's review of their pricing model is helpful enough. Despite Labour's massive surplus I don't think they are of a mind to be helpful either.
    Normally I would say site make good costs would make a favourable resolution more likely but if they're up for ~ $60 capex to overhaul one of the pot lines, then that's also a factor that makes the outcome less certain.
    Last edited by Beagle; 24-10-2019 at 11:42 AM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  2. #32
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    Good to see Rio Tinto back for their regular top up of corporate welfare. Nice work if you can get it. Govt really needs a long term plan to reduce the effectiveness of this negotiating tactic.

  3. #33
    Membaa
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    FWIW, MoaningStar downgrades big time, cites Tiwai effect.

    Moaning Star Ratings 23/10/2019



    $ at posting
    MS $Value
    Reco
    % diff
    $ diff
    GNE
    $ 3.07
    $ 2.40
    Reduce
    22%
    $ 0.67
    MCY
    $ 5.04
    $ 3.90
    Reduce
    23%
    $ 1.14
    MEL
    $ 5.00
    $ 3.70
    Sell
    26%
    $ 1.30
    TPW
    $ 8.40
    $ 6.30
    Reduce
    25%
    $ 2.10

  4. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Baa_Baa View Post
    FWIW, MoaningStar downgrades big time, cites Tiwai effect.

    Moaning Star Ratings 23/10/2019



    $ at posting
    MS $Value
    Reco
    % diff
    $ diff
    GNE
    $ 3.07
    $ 2.40
    Reduce
    22%
    $ 0.67
    MCY
    $ 5.04
    $ 3.90
    Reduce
    23%
    $ 1.14
    MEL
    $ 5.00
    $ 3.70
    Sell
    26%
    $ 1.30
    TPW
    $ 8.40
    $ 6.30
    Reduce
    25%
    $ 2.10
    Lol Morningstar are shining stars for once.

  5. #35
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    Market doesn't like uncertainty. So from now, till March when the review is out, the SP for the power shares ain't looking too bright. If going purely for the div, I would rather opt for HLG.

  6. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by 44wishlists View Post
    Market doesn't like uncertainty. So from now, till March when the review is out, the SP for the power shares ain't looking too bright. If going purely for the div, I would rather opt for HLG.
    Absolutely.

  7. #37
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    I don't put much stock in moaning-blackhole but the point is that its highly likely that most of the true professional analysts will be downgrading for the significant extra risk and all the gentailiers have enjoyed an exceptional run.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  8. #38
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    Holders that paid near $5.50 are in for a whole lot of pain, capital loss will make divvies look miserable (Been there done that) PS-If it looks and smells overcooked then it is overcooked.

  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    Holders that paid near $5.50 are in for a whole lot of pain, capital loss will make divvies look miserable (Been there done that) PS-If it looks and smells overcooked then it is overcooked.
    Like some other share at $18 eh mate...oh wait, that share pays no divvies to ease holders pain
    Anyway...aside from the fundamental change in the risk landscape its well worth noting that CEN, GNE and MEL have all broken down through their 100 day moving averages. For what its worth TPW and MCY haven't.
    Last edited by Beagle; 24-10-2019 at 12:31 PM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  10. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Like some other share at $18 eh mate...oh wait, that share pays no divvies to ease holders pain
    Anyway...aside from the fundamental change in the risk landscape its well worth noting that CEN, GNE and MEL have all broken down through their 100 day moving averages. For what its worth TPW and MCY haven't.
    That sounds very much like a code that you've sold your holdings.

  11. #41
    The Kid
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arthur View Post
    Hope never to check either of them myself, but he showed all the balls of a gelding when he folded to Rio's "Bluff"
    Can't see the Government caving in to Rio Tinto this time. Southland is a true blue National seat (so there's little for them to lose in the way of votes) and the Greens will look at this as an opportunity to shut down all the dirty thermal power stations.

  12. #42
    percy
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    That sounds very much like a code that you've sold your holdings.
    Cashed up to buy your PAZ shares.?

  13. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by percy View Post
    Cashed up to buy your PAZ shares.?
    Yes please !
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  14. #44
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    Tiwai have exceptional security of supply and that requires a lot of xtra transmission assets specifically put in for them. They pay 5.5c/Kwh which must be about cost for energy and should not get reductions for transmission. They have to be faced down. Their profit all depends on the bauxite price which they control so it is a question of transfer pricing . This is written by an x TP CEO and senior manager of NZED in Dunedin who had a lot to do with Comalco . Remember Muldoon doubled the price a long time ago . You have to be tough with them.

  15. #45
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    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

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