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Thread: Power shares

  1. #401
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    All power companies valuations goes up from marketscreener.com, because of removing uncertainty?
    Last edited by Master98; 10-07-2020 at 04:53 PM.

  2. #402
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rep View Post
    Rio Tinto operates 4 aluminium smelters to produce their RenewAL brand of low carbon aluminium claiming a carbon footprint that is a third of the industry (noting many have electricity from coal powered thermal stations).
    Tiwai is one of the smelters with the other three - one is located in Iceland with the other two in North America. My understanding that these three smelters are supplied by hydro plants that are owned by Rio Tinto - bearing in mind that I think originally Comalco had intended to build Manapouri along with the Tiwai Smelter but couldn't fund both so the Muldoon administration stepped in.

    Manapouri is owned by Meridian and so Rio Tinto has to effectively pay a market competitive rate for their hydro power (less any subsidy) rather than the cost of generation at the other 3 smelters if my understanding around their ownership of the hydro schemes is correct.

    Even if the Tiwai aluminium has a higher purity, the low carbon credentials are matched at the other plants and the North American production might be closer to the end user of the aluminium products (reducing shipping and inventory holdings for Rio Tinto and the end user). We also don't have a huge domestic use of the aluminium from the plant unlike the American smelters as I understand Rio Tinto has got a lot of assistance from the Canadian and Quebec Government around the smelter and producing a low carbon product that can be used in their domestic car assembly industry and exported to US plants. That makes hard to justify a premium for the production at Tiwai as a low carbon, high purity product compared to Rio Tinto's own hydro electric powered smelters.

    Also I'm fairly sure we don't import bauxite - it should be alumina by the time it gets here having been processed using the Bayer Process. I think the byproduct of that process is something we'd want to avoid as it makes the ouvea dross at Mataura look like a pond compared to a lake of the byproduct of making alumina.
    This is not correct Rep. All the large hydro plants in Iceland, including all supplies to ALCAN (Rio Tinto), are owned by a State Owned Enterprise (Landsvirkjun).
    They are having exactly the same discussion up there as has been had here regarding Tiwai. Word for word the same arguments.

  3. #403
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aaron View Post
    It would be interesting if you had the time and could access financial statements for Tiwai Point to see if they are paying fair prices for their other inputs. Rio Tinto would be providing the Bauxite (I guess) I don't suppose they would be using transfer pricing to take profits offshore. What about debt, do they have any? is thin capitalisation an issue. I guess pointless now but if you had the time it would be interesting to know. I'm sure if that were the case someone would have brought it up by now while they debate the price of power.
    https://coys.co.nz/:entity?no=156735...ELTERS+LIMITED

    NEW ZEALAND ALUMINIUM SMELTERS LIMITED

    Pick out the links to the Financial Statements in the list, right click to view from Companies Office site

    I see the latest is year to 31 Dec 2019 with 2018 comparatives


    2019 FY Loss ($355m) after Tax - but that was after ($455m) in Other Losses booked on Derivatives at Fair Value upstairs
    2018 FY Surplus $220M After Tax - but after $333m Other Income booked on Derivatives at Fair Value upstairs

    Note 4 (page 23) as I posted earlier "TOLLING REVENUE" 2019 FY $725m 2018 FY $698m

    If I'm not wrong - "An Outfit deriving it's Revenue from processing Stuff for Others"

    Why does a TOLLING Outfit billing "participants" for it's major Revenue Source have a hefty Derivatives exposure ?

    It can't be - surely - north of $500 M in Derivative Assets at 2018 Y/e in relation to Power ??

    Not much Change in "Raw Materials, Energy & Consumables" for the 3.72% Revenue increase between 2018 & 2019 years
    either -

    2019 $523.066 M v 2018 $523.517 M

    Included in Non Current Receivables is this Gem:

    Note 12:

    'Environmental Restoration account 2019 $47.98 m 2018 $ 47.98 m'

    'This is a deposit held with NZ IRD in relation to future environmental restoration cost which can be withdrawn when the environmental closure costs are incurred''


    That's it - that's all the Bucks that have been put aside towards the Larger environmental costs now coming out in recent announcements

    Where is the rest coming from ? $2.7 m in the bank aint going to go far
    What is the turf (badly environmentally impaired presumably when close down occurs) this outfit sits on, or the blocks & four walls of improvements going to be worth in a depressed Southland economy after close down ?
    Last edited by nztx; 10-07-2020 at 09:02 PM. Reason: add more

  4. #404
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    Do a chernobyl and just cover it in concrete, by heavy lift helicopters. The concrete dome will then become a tourist drawcard. That would cost 48 mill. A proper cleanup would cost a lot more. Of course, the chernobyl option, would be a disaster, just like chernobyl.
    Last edited by bottomfeeder; 11-07-2020 at 12:51 PM.

  5. #405
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    Quote Originally Posted by iceman View Post
    This is not correct Rep. All the large hydro plants in Iceland, including all supplies to ALCAN (Rio Tinto), are owned by a State Owned Enterprise (Landsvirkjun).
    They are having exactly the same discussion up there as has been had here regarding Tiwai. Word for word the same arguments.
    I stand corrected (memory going in old age) - That’s the smelter that Norske Hydro looked at buying a couple of years ago.

    The Alcan smelter in British Columbia at Kitimat is powered by the Kemano Power House which is operated by Rio Tinto.

    The Saguenay - Lac-Saint-Jean region has four smelters, an alumina refinery and six hydro electric plants all operated by Rio Tinto. It appears to get a fair bit of assistance from the Quebec and Canadian Government for operations and makes up half of their global output.

    So the Iceland smelter, Tiwai and the small one at Bell Bay (in Tasmania) are all powered by Hydro but not from a Rio Tinto powerplant - unsurprising that the Iceland was up for sale and Tiwai looking at closure and I’m wondering if Bell Bay isn’t next.

  6. #406
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    As I understand it, in the short term, there seems to be no way that the electricity produced at Manapouri can be incorporated into the national power supply. It is effectively “stranded” somewhere down in the deep south.

    To “free” it will require a decent-sized piece of work from TransPower, which is likely to lead to a decent-sized bond issue.

    Hoorah!” cried the fixed-interest enthusiasts. “A new issue to stag!”

    Then in the medium term, perhaps Manapouri has a strategic role as a big wet storage battery to cover for those days when the wind isn’t blowing. In some ways comparable to the “standby” thermal power stations of the 1990s.

    And finally in the long term, the electrification of the transport sector of the economy (road, rail, and scooter), and possibly a hydrogen-production industry may well gobble up all of Manapouri’s output once it's available.

  7. #407
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    Quote Originally Posted by GTM 3442 View Post
    As I understand it, in the short term, there seems to be no way that the electricity produced at Manapouri can be incorporated into the national power supply. It is effectively “stranded” somewhere down in the deep south.

    To “free” it will require a decent-sized piece of work from TransPower, which is likely to lead to a decent-sized bond issue.

    Hoorah!” cried the fixed-interest enthusiasts. “A new issue to stag!”

    Then in the medium term, perhaps Manapouri has a strategic role as a big wet storage battery to cover for those days when the wind isn’t blowing. In some ways comparable to the “standby” thermal power stations of the 1990s.

    And finally in the long term, the electrification of the transport sector of the economy (road, rail, and scooter), and possibly a hydrogen-production industry may well gobble up all of Manapouri’s output once it's available.
    Hopefully some of the dairy factories that are still using coal powered stations will move to clean hydro. It would be the right thing to do.

  8. #408
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    Quote Originally Posted by GTM 3442 View Post



    Then in the medium term, perhaps Manapouri has a strategic role as a big wet storage battery to cover for those days when the wind isn’t blowing. In some ways comparable to the “standby” thermal power stations of the 1990s.
    .
    Sadly not. It's a run of river station due to strict controls on lake level.

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    Quote Originally Posted by haewai View Post
    Sadly not. It's a run of river station due to strict controls on lake level.

    In which case I assume that it just continues to run with the river allowing some combination of other, storage-based, power stations to assume the role of being that big wet battery?

  10. #410
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    Quote Originally Posted by haewai View Post
    Sadly not. It's a run of river station due to strict controls on lake level.
    Whilst in the long term any hydro is a 'run of the river' station the combination of manapouri & te anau give it 660M cubic metres of head room, enough to run the station flat out for two weeks (assuming 0 inflows).
    [ I hope I have got that right ]


    However, the design lends itself to continuous base load scenarios and in the short term, as has been commented widely, the inability to feed the maximum power output into the main grid limit how it can be used efficiently.
    om mani peme hum

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