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Originally Posted by Airw0lf
One further point - if they do decide to cease operating the smelter, it's not as simple as just walking away. If I remember correctly the exit costs are quite substantial (tens, if not more, of millions) - there's a fair bit of remediation work they need to do on the site. I stand to be corrected on this though as I am not an expert on the resource consents and such that they operate under.
Its an old article from 2015 but states the then past clean-up cost estimate was $200 to $400m. Add at least another 5-years of inflation and these are probably on the low side.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indu...-district-plan
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I am pretty sure Rio will have a very different viewpoint on the cost of the minimum amount of site rehabilitation that is legally required.
This isn't their first rodeo in that regard.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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Originally Posted by Beagle
Fair enough AirwOlf, its certainly a complex situation. The Government probably need to have a think about the bigger picture and what the cost is if a fair percentage of those 1000 workers end up on a benefit. Maybe some pragmatism is called for ?
Interesting point. What about the 500 workers at TV3 that end up on a benefit... more pragmatism and government intervention called for? Or is that different? Not that I do not want the smelter to carry on but sometimes we need to look at the bigger picture I feel. 1,000 jobs gone yes, but for the rest of NZ it will be a windfall in lower power prices etc and it means NZ inc will have more energy resource to supply anticipated increase in demand (that is contingent on energy being able to be transported North from Manapouri)
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Good point blackcap. Where do you draw the line in the sand ?
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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Dairy farmer spokesman on radio said collectively dairy farmers use more electricity than Tiwai and its one of their biggest input costs blah blah .....do they get government assistance?
When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself
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Originally Posted by winner69
Dairy farmer spokesman on radio said collectively dairy farmers use more electricity than Tiwai and its one of their biggest input costs blah blah .....do they get government assistance?
Drought relief when required. Payments to the income equalisation scheme allowing spreading of income. R&D tax credits.
Herd scheme stock valuation methodology that allows farmers to use stock values from 30 years ago, (who else can do that ?).
Only 5% of emissions will be included in the emissions trading scheme. I am sure I have forgotten many other forms of assistance.
Level playing field or does Govt pander to some forms of business because its politically expedient to do so ?
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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Member
Believe me Tiwai use transmission assets at Dunedin, North Makerawa , and lines from Twizel to Invercargill at least. The story they are putting out is false . They deliver no benefit to NZ and should have been gone years ago. The price they get energy for is cost and they cannot exist on Manapouri generation alone.
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Member
Perhaps southland can be the first to start using electric cars when Tiwai closes down. This could be a good thing for NZ.
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Originally Posted by Beagle
Drought relief when required. Payments to the income equalisation scheme allowing spreading of income. R&D tax credits.
Herd scheme stock valuation methodology that allows farmers to use stock values from 30 years ago, (who else can do that ?).
Only 5% of emissions will be included in the emissions trading scheme. I am sure I have forgotten many other forms of assistance.
Level playing field or does Govt pander to some forms of business because its politically expedient to do so ?
I just assumed Winner was joking when he asked that question
A little bounce for Genesis today so I took the opportunity to reduce my holding just a tad. I've sort of got it to that level that if Rio stays, that's great. If it doesn't, well at least I reduced a little and no hard feelings (I also own Rio Tinto directly). This approach means that I don't have to get all hot and bothered waiting until March next year.
I see my Devon Alpha fund has a swag of CEN - will be interesting to see what approach Devon takes on this.
I'm guessing the Government will do whatever it takes to Keep the smelter going. Losing 1000 jobs in Southland in an election year and the immense hit to Kiwisaver accounts (a lot of basic kiwisaver accounts have far too much in NZ shares and therefore far too much exposure to the gentailers) will give the Government plenty of incentive to sort this.
Last edited by Bobdn; 25-10-2019 at 04:31 PM.
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Originally Posted by Bobdn
I'm guessing the Government will do whatever it takes to Keep the smelter going. Losing 1000 jobs in Southland in an election year and the immense hit to Kiwisaver accounts (a lot of basic kiwisaver accounts have far too much in NZ shares and therefore far too much exposure to the gentailers) will give the Government plenty of incentive to sort this.
You will need to check with Winston. But personally I am not counting on the government doing very much at all.
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