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Thread: Power shares

  1. #61
    Dilettante
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    Quote Originally Posted by horus1 View Post
    Believe me Tiwai use transmission assets at Dunedin, North Makerawa , and lines from Twizel to Invercargill at least. The story they are putting out is false . They deliver no benefit to NZ and should have been gone years ago. The price they get energy for is cost and they cannot exist on Manapouri generation alone.
    Tiwai uses about 13% of our national generation 24/7, 365 days a year, EVENLY. Peak to trough ratio 1 to 1. How on earth are we going to turn that into domestic consumption that sucks most of it between 5Pm-8Pm each day, peak to trough ratio something like 1 to 6 ? We need big steady users like Tiwai or we will pay dearly for the transmission.

  2. #62
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    Quote Originally Posted by iceman View Post
    Tiwai uses about 13% of our national generation 24/7, 365 days a year, EVENLY. Peak to trough ratio 1 to 1. How on earth are we going to turn that into domestic consumption that sucks most of it between 5Pm-8Pm each day, peak to trough ratio something like 1 to 6 ? We need big steady users like Tiwai or we will pay dearly for the transmission.
    Hi iceman, the NZ dairy industry uses a lot of large coal boilers to create heat for the milk powder production, I would think that a lot of Tiwai's electricity use can be consumed by new replacement electrical boilers.
    They are also likely to run 24 hours a day. The Dairy industry would love cheaper clean energie.
    Last edited by forest; 26-10-2019 at 06:54 AM.

  3. #63

  4. #64
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  5. #65
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  6. #66
    The Kid
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    Thanks for posting Beagle. Found this interesting ...."S&P Global Ratings said Genesis Energy and Contact Energy would face a higher degree of risk because of their exposure to thermal generation, while Meridian Energy and Mercury NZ would face less risk given their portfolios fully consist of renewable generating assets."

  7. #67
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    I think many people, myself included forgot about the risk of the gentailiers with Rio's right at any time to pull the plug with 12 months notice.
    What I also didn't realise because I got so lazy with the predictable steady rise of these shares was that since a year ago when for example MEL was $3.10, was that at the peak of $5.54 in early September the shares were up a whopping 79% plus dividends for a total shareholder return of approx. 85% in just the last year, on top of good gains in previous years.

    I think people, (myself included) have really flocked to the gentailiers as a haven of safety in such uncertain times. Some REIT's like GMT for example are also trading at extraordinary premiums of circa 30% to their NTA based on a what is probably a perception of real safety.

    Food for thought...What happens to REIT and Utility prices if there's no recession and China and the USA reach a trade deal and growth and risk are on again and interest rates rise... What happens if Rio really does pull the plug this time ?
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  8. #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    I think many people, myself included forgot about the risk of the gentailiers with Rio's right at any time to pull the plug with 12 months notice.
    What I also didn't realise because I got so lazy with the predictable steady rise of these shares was that since a year ago when for example MEL was $3.10, was that at the peak of $5.54 in early September the shares were up a whopping 79% plus dividends for a total shareholder return of approx. 85% in just the last year, on top of good gains in previous years.

    I think people, (myself included) have really flocked to the gentailiers as a haven of safety in such uncertain times. Some REIT's like GMT for example are also trading at extraordinary premiums of circa 30% to their NTA based on a what is probably a perception of real safety.

    Food for thought...What happens to REIT and Utility prices if there's no recession and China and the USA reach a trade deal and growth and risk are on again and interest rates rise... What happens if Rio really does pull the plug this time ?
    These thoughts have already been alluded to by some of us for quite a while now, like I said if it smells and looks overcooked it is indeed overcooked.

  9. #69
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    There was no point in selling while they were in a clear uptrend.
    Last edited by Beagle; 28-10-2019 at 01:19 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  10. #70
    percy
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    I prefer GNE and MEL shares to holding bonds.
    The future of electricity looks sound in NZ.
    Manapouri is a great asset for MEL and NZ.
    Last edited by percy; 28-10-2019 at 01:33 PM.

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