Power shares

[Beagle]

Yeah they have been a great bond alternative and I think a lot of people have viewed them as such and invested on that basis but long dated bonds can go down in value as interest rates rise, and so can the gentailiers. Been a fantastic run this past year especially and still could be going forward but its less clear now which way they will go in the next 12 months, in my opinion.

Agreed Percy, Manopouri is a very special place. I've done the doubtful sound full day tour and highly recommend it for anyone wanting a taste of this wonderful place https://www.realjourneys.co.nz/en/de...und/more-info/ Not sure if they still go down into Manopouri power station to see the generators at work or not, anyone know ? but that was a real treat as was doubtful sound and lake Manopouri is absolutely awesome too, possibly the best part of the trip. Not cheap but a trip well and truly worth doing !

[Grimy]

We did a half day tour about 10 years back which included going down the underground power station access road to a viewing point of the generators/turbine shafts.
Not near as exciting as when I was about 12 and Dad worked for the NZED and on a South Island holiday we were able to travel to the power station on the workers boat and wander around on the generator floor. No H&S issues then!

[Airw0lf]

Thanks for posting Beagle. Found this interesting ...."S&P Global Ratings said Genesis Energy and Contact Energy would face a higher degree of risk because of their exposure to thermal generation, while Meridian Energy and Mercury NZ would face less risk given their portfolios fully consist of renewable generating assets."

Except that Meridian are at the bottom of the South Island so will face considerable bottlenecks in getting their generation to market for ~5 years whilst the necessary grid upgrades are performed. Depending on your investment horizon, this may or may not matter.

[percy]

Today's announcement from bauxite producer Metro Mining [MMI.asx] gave a positive outlook for bauxite.In fact they are looking to ramp up their production.
So perhaps Rio are playing games.?

[Sideshow Bob]

No, they no longer take the tours into the powerhouse at Manapouri. Stopped in 2015, after concerns from Worksafe.

Interesting article here https://www.odt.co.nz/regions/southl...ts-engineering

[GTM 3442]

Out of a mixture of ignorance and idle curiosity, when the Bluff smelter does finally close, does the Manapouri power plant have a future as a big wet storage battery, able to balance the load or take up the slack on calm days when all those clean green windmills aren't turning?

If it does, then would Meridian be the right entity to own it?

[Beagle]

No, they no longer take the tours into the powerhouse at Manapouri. Stopped in 2015, after concerns from Worksafe.

Interesting article here https://www.odt.co.nz/regions/southl...ts-engineering

Many thanks indeed. What a fabulous summary of the history behind the Manapouri power station.

[percy]

Out of a mixture of ignorance and idle curiosity, when the Bluff smelter does finally close, does the Manapouri power plant have a future as a big wet storage battery, able to balance the load or take up the slack on calm days when all those clean green windmills aren't turning?

If it does, then would Meridian be the right entity to own it?

They do own.
Most probably for the next one thousand years too.

[GTM 3442]

They do own.
Most probably for the next one thousand years too.

They most assuredly do, percy.

But at the end of the day, the current configuration of the New Zealand electricity network, environment, and market is the result of a series of political decisions.

And what the Minister giveth, the Minister may also take away.

There's that quote from a British PM (Wilson, I think) - "A week is a long time in politics" - so a thousand years may be slightly on the optimistic side.

[Beagle]

We are starting to see emerging signs of optimism (yes again) over a possible trade deal between the US and China. Time will tell on that front.
S&P 500 hit an all time record and various experts on CNBC reported they now see the possibility of a recession in the US in 2020 or 2021 as slim.
10 year US govt stock rate up 10 basis points overnight and a breakout from the recent low range.
Its could be an interesting few months ahead for the power shares if defensive shares are no longer flavour of the month, (year ?), and with Rio's feral approach and all.
Some have had a truly fantastic run (total shareholder return for MEL was about 85% for the year to early September) and it would appear to be (at the very least) time for a breather.