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  1. #401
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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    Christchurch retirement village in lockdown after residents display 'symptoms of a respiratory illness

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/a...ectid=12355665
    It’s a good precaution to lockdown but it seems unlikely if we have no community spread that this is coronavirus. We will know soon…

  2. #402
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    Quote Originally Posted by tango View Post
    It’s a good precaution to lockdown but it seems unlikely if we have no community spread that this is coronavirus. We will know soon…
    didnt take long

    Coronavirus: Auckland moves to Level 3, rest of NZ to Level 2, as four Covid-19 cases confirmed in community

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/hea...d-in-community


    be hammer time tomorrow
    bull
    One step ahead of the herd

  3. #403
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    Will be some good buying shortly after open tomorrow, I wouldn't wait too long before buying though, expect retirement stocks to bounce back pretty quickly.

  4. #404
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    Quote Originally Posted by allfromacell View Post
    Will be some good buying shortly after open tomorrow, I wouldn't wait too long before buying though, expect retirement stocks to bounce back pretty quickly.
    so your betting it wont turn into something worse
    bull
    One step ahead of the herd

  5. #405
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    massive sells coming on all them
    bull
    One step ahead of the herd

  6. #406
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    Coronavirus: Residents from two Christchurch retirement villages test negative for Covid-19
    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/hea...ve-for-covid19
    Last edited by aquaman; 12-08-2020 at 08:52 AM.

  7. #407
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    breaking news all rest homes going into lock down due to covid
    bull
    One step ahead of the herd

  8. #408
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    Not a retirement village operator but a provider of finance to that industry is being wound up.
    SRF is winding up its listed fund.
    I have found them to be a good investment and will be misty eyed to see them go.

  9. #409
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    What im noticing in High needs care facilities.
    Covid has stressed out the system especially the carers.

    There is now a high turnover of staff happening, not good.some great long term staff have gone.
    Some of the staff are burnt out and have lost the empathy for residents
    Some new staff dont have empathy ,its certainly not their calling

    Have some staff gone back to their country or not had work visas extended?
    Despite access now being available to family members etc to come and help(eg feeding at meal times) clients are being neglected (due to overwork)

    Regulations like having to use a hoist for most clients means 2 staff are tied up for a while hence not getting to others in a timely way or at all.
    This means for ex toileting doesnt happen at times leaving people sitting in their you know what for hours or longer.

    A solution , one more staff member to take the ratio incrementally higher then current ratio (one staff to six clients i believe).
    I understand they move staff around the places to help in busy times but this is not happening/helping where i visit .
    Last edited by Joshuatree; 15-10-2020 at 10:57 AM.

  10. #410
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    either way you look at it its a very tough job for sure.

    member of the family made a short film about it a few years ago. It went to french film festival.

  11. #411
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blue Skies View Post
    Earlier this week was talking to an Auckland buyer ( going to a lot of auctions & missed out on a couple of properties due strong bidding ) who said the Auckland market has really ignited again with these low interest rates, dozens of people at open homes & property prices going up at rate of $20,000 per month. (this in the around $1M category).

    Looks like there's a revaluation of retirement sector which was so unloved in flat property market.

    Makes sense why Adrian Orr has not removed LVR's if market has taken off again.
    As an outsider (with no retirement village investments) I am going to stick my oar in for a single stroke in the expectation I will be pilloried and chased away by the believers. Since Blue Skies post, Covid-19 has come. LVRs have gone, interest rates have continued to fall and property prices have gone still higher - except in Christchurch where I live. My neighbour's son, who would be early 30s, with a wife and a young child and a good job, is looking to buy his first house in the city. He has found that a new build in Halswell (I mention that because Halswell is a relatively 'handy to the city centre' well thought of suburb - not somewhere out in the styx) significantly cheaper than buying an existing house. And buying new means your house is properly insulated and you can choose the bedroom, bathroom layout to be exactly what you want. And this new house pricing (under $500,000 for 3 bedrooms) has been achieved within all the existing planning rules, shortage of tradespeople and no mention of kit-set houses imported from China to save costs.

    I think, relative to average household salaries, Christchurch must be about the cheapest place to live in New Zealand right now. But even then it is not cheap. I realise to an Auckland domiciled worker, and retirement village investor, all this must sound fantastical. Yet even with the Adrian Orr stoked property price bonfire, even with all the price inflation levers pulled with interest rates at all time lows, you still think the average Auckland house will be worth $1m more in ten years time than it is today! And furthermore this 'wealth effect' will continue to ripple through retirement villages. I am here to tell you that the 'Christchurch effect' is coming to your town. The only way I can see your $1m house incremental price rise over the next ten years coming is through massive wage inflation (forget about small businesses grizzling about paying $20 per hour minimum wage, it will have to be $40) which means $12 lattés (starting price) for your morning fix. Before the nationwide (except Christchurch) rising of property prices in 2019 and the subsequent price stoking of 2020 I had hoped a decade of zero to no property price inflation might sort things out. But the reserve bank will not allow 7.5% wage/price inflation every year for ten years, and even Jacinda won't oversee a minimum wage of $40/hour.. So I am afraid the only option to correct things is a property crash. But that I mean a minimum 30% price collapse and probably more. I know that those of you who live in Auckland can't see it, but believe me it is coming because the population of NZ won't tolerate being priced out of a home forever. I invite you to contemplate what that might do the balance sheets of those over-leveraged property developers that call themselves 'retirement villages'.

    Ok I feel better now. back into my kennel.

    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; 15-10-2020 at 12:25 PM.
    Industry shorthand sees BNZ employees still called 'bankers' but ANZ employees now called 'anchors'. Westpac has opted out of banking industry shorthand...

  12. #412
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    even if the prices stay here for 10 years the retirement operators will make money.

    Property prices in auckland go down? well its possible but in history of records that has only happened when again? GFC?

    someone remind me that happens in the golden triangle.. when those roads are all linked in later 2021 the roads will be packed... the number of cars travelling last weekend over the huntly hump was impressive.. wait till you can connect 4 lanes to south of karapiro..

    they will leave the south island to the tourists ... live in one island and send the tourists to the south.. thats was almost what was starting to happen.

    I see property prices widening across the divide.
    Last edited by Waltzingironmansinlgescul; 15-10-2020 at 12:24 PM.

  13. #413
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    Sorry for the vague question, but what retirement villages is everyone most bullish on?

  14. #414
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    Quote Originally Posted by Captain View Post
    Sorry for the vague question, but what retirement villages is everyone most bullish on?
    See Oceania tread. Quite a few people think they will outperform the others and others have a different view.

    I doubt you'll find a consensus of what everyone is most bullish on as almost everyone has their own opinion on what's the best one.
    Last edited by Beagle; 18-10-2020 at 12:59 PM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  15. #415
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    Screenshot 2020-10-19 133824.jpg

    The numbers show the trend.

  16. #416
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    thats a really nice presentation flyinglizard
    thanks for sharing
    does it include cents per share because npat can be diluted i.e are you aware of any increase in the number of existing shares for Arvida
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  17. #417
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    Quote Originally Posted by peat View Post
    thats a really nice presentation flyinglizard
    thanks for sharing
    does it include cents per share because npat can be diluted i.e are you aware of any increase in the number of existing shares for Arvida
    I do keep lots of info not for sharing. I had a look at the PE, PB, underlying PEG ratio for those four, still having the same conclusion. I prob will hold it for 3-5 years. Time will tell.

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