sharetrader
Page 24 of 25 FirstFirst ... 14202122232425 LastLast
Results 346 to 360 of 364
  1. #346
    Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2020
    Location
    In the trough
    Posts
    325

    Default

    Be interesting to see where interest rates bottom out. Since the GFC, it hasn't been hard to find sub 2% 2 year rates in the UK. Off the back of this event, is it too much to suggest we'll see rates in that vicinity here? For what it's worth, HSBC, who are often at the sharp end, service both markets. I'm waiting for them to ruffle some feathers with somewhere around 2.35-2.45. Expect asset prices are going to go crazy in a few years.

  2. #347
    Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2003
    Location
    Tauranga
    Posts
    240

    Default

    I think you may need more than just interest rates to stimulate real-estate growth. 20% unemployment won't help.

  3. #348
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    16,006

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by ynot View Post
    I think you may need more than just interest rates to stimulate real-estate growth. 20% unemployment won't help.
    We're nowhere near that yet. Treasury forecasts are for unemployment to max out at just on 10% but since then we're getting on top of this virus pretty well so far so maybe the economy can be kickstarted again...(Govt still have another $20 Billion up their sleeves from the budget and will print more if they have too).

    Maybe we have a nice little bubble of 5 million down the track and then another 25 million from Australia. Maybe CER with Aust will finally get some real meaning ?
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  4. #349
    Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2003
    Location
    Tauranga
    Posts
    240

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    We're nowhere near that yet. Treasury forecasts are for unemployment to max out at just on 10% but since then we're getting on top of this virus pretty well so far so maybe the economy can be kickstarted again...(Govt still have another $20 Billion up their sleeves from the budget and will print more if they have too).

    Maybe we have a nice little bubble of 5 million down the track and then another 25 million from Australia. Maybe CER with Aust will finally get some real meaning ?
    Yes, 20 is probably stretching it. I reckon it will definitely get to 15%

  5. #350
    A BEARISH BULL winner69's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    26,431

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by ynot View Post
    Yes, 20 is probably stretching it. I reckon it will definitely get to 15%
    NZ has got about 2.5 million beneficiaries at the moment

    That's a large chunk of the population
    Last edited by winner69; 23-05-2020 at 05:27 PM.

  6. #351
    Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2003
    Location
    Tauranga
    Posts
    240

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    NZ has got a out 2.5 million beneficiaries at the moment

    That's a large chunk of the population

    What are you implying ? You saying a lot
    could end up permanently
    unemployed. That's what I'm thinking.

  7. #352
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2016
    Location
    South Canterbury
    Posts
    539

    Default

    Care to explain this please?

    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    NZ has got about 2.5 million beneficiaries at the moment

    That's a large chunk of the population

  8. #353
    Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2020
    Location
    In the trough
    Posts
    325

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    NZ has got about 2.5 million beneficiaries at the moment

    That's a large chunk of the population
    Quote Originally Posted by ynot View Post
    What are you implying ? You saying a lot
    could end up permanently
    unemployed. That's what I'm thinking.
    Quote Originally Posted by justakiwi View Post
    Care to explain this please?
    I think Winner is referring to the fact that only about half of households are net income tax payers...

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opi...in-new-zealand

  9. #354
    Advanced Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2012
    Posts
    2,331

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclical View Post
    I think Winner is referring to the fact that only about half of households are net income tax payers...

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opi...in-new-zealand
    NZ has a narrow tax base with a reliance on income tax which has meant some try to structure their affairs to favour capital gains as opposed to earning income.

    I guess it also depends whether those in receipt of government superannuation are classified as beneficiaries too?

  10. #355
    Junior Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2020
    Location
    hamilton
    Posts
    50

    Default

    Since the GFC we have split investments up into seperate types of entities. Trusts for long term investment catergories and trading accounts for other stocks. Off market transfers to move stocks between the entities. of course it goes without saying that some aoftware is required to track transaction movements and provide extensive auditing even for small accounts but once that is in place the costs oof ADMIN come down sharply. OCA provided good short term profits.. unfortunately we lost them existing AIR a few weeks to late behind the remarkable Mr B.

  11. #356
    Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2020
    Location
    In the trough
    Posts
    325

    Default

    Things I consider with regards to the direction of property prices...

    Negative impact:
    - Increased unemployment.
    - Death of tourism in the short term at least, we don't know the mid to long term impact. Massive hit to Queenstown and surrounding areas, Rotorua, Taupo and plenty of other tourism dependent hot spots no doubt.
    - Slowdown in positive immigration in the short term. Not really sure what this looks like in terms of demographics. Student numbers and low paid labour will be well down (the sort that wouldn't normally be buying houses for a few years, but do impact the rental side of the market).
    - FHB's Kiwisaver deposits having been eroded (may not be that significant, if say KS made up ~half of their 20% deposit towards new home, then maybe they've only got an 18% deposit now).
    - Continued uncertainty around this virus. Could there be no cure, could we thus have further waves ultimately culling a chunk of the population (impacting property demand, in particular the RV sector)?
    - Banks more cautious.

    Positive impact:
    - Historically low interest rates (specifically there to prop it up).
    - Kiwis coming home (how many - pass).
    - Well off immigrants choosing to come here and make NZ their home (presumably renting until they are allowed to buy).
    - It appears we've smashed this virus out of the park in NZ, so could we see a post virus war boom, domestically driven (perhaps with the help of Oz)?
    - Kiwi Build has for the most part been a fail. Maybe in localised areas supply is better than it was, but to what extent?
    - Pent up demand by FHB's and investors looking to get into the market, seeing this as an opportunity and likely to jump in at the first whiff of a discount, or just as a result of more houses coming onto the market due to others losing jobs (they also still need to live somewhere, right?), former AirBnB stock being freed up etc. Think FOMO just like the share market in April.
    - LVR restrictions relaxed - there will be plenty out there that couldn't quite scratch together 20% (or 35 in the case of investors...has that restriction gone too?)
    - Watering down of money and anticipation of the inevitable asset price boom in a few years...more people (especially investors) will be wise to it now having seen it post dot com and GFC.
    - The government keen to throw anything and everything into keeping the economy going.
    - No CGT (for now)
    - Prior to the crash, unemployment was very low and it was difficult for employers to find good staff - those that can will be keen to snap up good people (some FOMO again).
    - The Auckland market had only just started to recover after a nice wee breather, so has less room to fall.
    - The first quarter was looking like a ~3 gain in Auckland (don't quote me), so that will help offset any fall over the remainder of the calendar year.
    - Great time for the well-heeled to pick up that holiday home they've always wanted.

    There are no doubt plenty of other things we could add to those two lists, but it's a weighing machine right, and at the end of the day I don't think the downside will be that great. I'll be surprised if we see greater than a 10% drop nationally, followed by 2 to 4 years of generally flat. Some areas won't drop at all, others will drop maybe upwards of 20%.

    Life goes on and we like our houses.
    Last edited by Cyclical; Yesterday at 10:06 AM.

  12. #357
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    16,006

    Default

    There are no doubt plenty of other things we could add to those two lists, but it's a weighing machine right, and at the end of the day I don't think the downside will be that great. I'll be surprised if we see greater than a 10% drop nationally, followed by 2 to 4 years of generally flat. Some areas won't drop at all, others will drop maybe upwards of 20%.

    Life goes on and we like our houses.
    Top post and I agree 100% with your conclusion. According to REINZ Auckland average was up 4.9% in the first quarter. In my opinion that probably corrects down and balances out by the end of the year and companies like MET with most of its assets in Auckland will see their NTA of $7.00 as at 31/12/2019 not materially different by the end of 2020.

    Earl Gasparich in his recent Macquarie presentation talked about how this virus has created a greater awareness of the value of retirement villages in the context of an integral part of the healthcare system and how he expected the penetration rate to continue to grow. I think its currently about 13%, (if my memory serves me correctly). My thoughts are that the way the vast majority of the industry has performed so well through this Covid 19 crisis so far and protected our vulnerable elderly folks so well, we could see the penetration rate materially increase in the years ahead. That and the population demographic indicate no shortage of demand for those retirement companies that focus on providing a full continuum of care.
    Last edited by Beagle; Yesterday at 11:37 AM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  13. #358
    Senior Member King1212's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2015
    Location
    Maori land
    Posts
    1,318

    Default

    Kiwis that came home....are actually straight to dole claiming benefits.. according the latest update from Ministry of social welfare.

  14. #359
    A BEARISH BULL winner69's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    26,431

    Default

    There are 1.7 million workers who are wage subsidy recipients; 781,000 people receiving New Zealand Superannuation; 175,000 Kiwis on jobseeker support; and 160,000 receiving other benefits.

    Take off the double dippers and you get 2.5 million plus
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  15. #360
    A BEARISH BULL winner69's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2001
    Location
    , , .
    Posts
    26,431

    Default

    My Dad kept telling me about this guy Savage ....our current PM obviously admired him because a photo of him was seen behind her in many of her recent press briefings

    Apparently he said - “Citizens of the Dominion are insuring themselves against the economic hardships that would otherwise follow those natural misfortunes from which no one is immune.”
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •