Retirement village operators

[ronaldson]

Here’s 70 pages on retirement sector

https://nzaca.org.nz/wp-content/uplo...ofile-2024.pdf

Winner - I had a quick look and there are some revealing insights, although it deals with aged care beds (including those provided by RVs under ORAs) and not RV residents generally.

There is a great article in The Australian today examining the population demographics with respect to the massive increase in the 85+ cohort which must be expected when the first of the baby boomers (b1946) commence reaching that age in that country and the lack of any plan to address the consequences. The situation is/will be no different in NZ. Not only that but the proportion of the aged who can currently self fund their costs is falling incrementally.

The tsunami is coming. And RV operators are purposefully downsizing or exiting the provision of aged care beds as a matter of policy even now, with the intent of only providing for their own residents transition into care.

Our commitment to "short termism" isn't helping, with other more immediate crisis to focus upon.

[Bjauck]

Winner - I had a quick look and there are some revealing insights, although it deals with aged care beds (including those provided by RVs under ORAs) and not RV residents generally.

There is a great article in The Australian today examining the population demographics with respect to the massive increase in the 85+ cohort which must be expected when the first of the baby boomers (b1946) commence reaching that age in that country and the lack of any plan to address the consequences. The situation is/will be no different in NZ. Not only that but the proportion of the aged who can currently self fund their costs is falling incrementally.

The tsunami is coming. And RV operators are purposefully downsizing or exiting the provision of aged care beds as a matter of policy even now, with the intent of only providing for their own residents transition into care.

Our commitment to "short termism" isn't helping, with other more immediate crisis to focus upon.

A very interesting set of figures. Thanks W69. Years of underfunding are catching up. Those who can pay premium rates or stump up the cash for an ORA bed may be ok.

Otherwise in the absence of further boosts to funding, will Health Boards need to supply squalid dormitories/ doss houses for the rest? Will Rest homes in more prosperous areas decide to go private so they can charge more than the maximum contribution rate, as with OCA’s Helier.

[ronaldson]

Someone needs to talk to Sam Stubbs about being a first mover for constructing specially designed "Build to Rent" apartment blocks in main centres for those elderly 70+, with suitable support facilities included.

Cheaper for Government to pay an accommodation supplement to those needing assistance to afford occupation than any alternative. Of course when full aged/hospital type care is needed they would have to move on, but is that any different to now? And meantime tenure would be secure, in a community environment.

[kiora]

Or this model?
"Australia has 12 million empty bedrooms... So could this company crack the housing crisis code?
Empty nesters continue to stay put in their family homes, despite Australia's demand for housing skyrocketing.
6TH MAR, 24
PRINT WIRE

Matthew Kidman
Centennial Asset Management


FOLLOW
Affordable housing seems to be an elusive goal in Australia. However, Lifestyle Communities (ASX: LIC), which is celebrating its 21st birthday in 2024, might have just cracked the code."
https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wire...STEN%20%20READ

[Bjauck]

Someone needs to talk to Sam Stubbs about being a first mover for constructing specially designed "Build to Rent" apartment blocks in main centres for those elderly 70+, with suitable support facilities included.

Cheaper for Government to pay an accommodation supplement to those needing assistance to afford occupation than any alternative. Of course when full aged/hospital type care is needed they would have to move on, but is that any different to now? And meantime tenure would be secure, in a community environment.

The government for years has had tax and other policies in place that encourage households to over-invest in existing residential property, and then have a generous accommodation supplement benefit to enable some to rent the expensive residential investments.

So hey ho, income earners subsidise residential investors (both owner-occupiers and investors) and then subsidise those paying them rents. This continues because neither major political Party wants to face the electoral consequences of tackling this such massively government subsidised investment class, and the resulting effects on our capital markets and economy. A slow dismantlement of these large subsidies is needed.

Why doesn’t the government for a start, remove GST from building products and labour for new builds, and impose a stamp duty on purchases on second and subsequent exisiting houses, except perhaps for multiple dwelling blocks, and a CGT on all gains from investment in existing residential properties.

[bull....]

The housing market looks like it ended the peak summer selling season with new listings and average asking prices in March both down compared to February and a huge overhang of unsold stock as we head towards the quieter months of winter, according to the latest figures from property website Realestate.co.nz

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/...looking-buyers

[ronaldson]

The housing market looks like it ended the peak summer selling season with new listings and average asking prices in March both down compared to February and a huge overhang of unsold stock as we head towards the quieter months of winter, according to the latest figures from property website Realestate.co.nz

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/...looking-buyers

You could look at the number of new listings (which are sharply up from March 2023) as a positive indicator for the RV sector, that folk intent on entering a village are finally now listing their existing property so as to ultimately relocate into such a facility.

Similarly the article records that price expectations are adjusting lower, and we know downside adjustments are psycologically difficult and have a greater lag time in the market than upside movements. More sales will follow once vendors are more comfortable with meeting the current market.

Of course listings made with that underlying purpose will always be only a minor proportion of the total, but most RV operators are presently offering incentives to take up an ORA to better drive occupation decisions. Hence I don't put a negative spin for RV investors on the statistics reported above.

[bull....]

You could look at the number of new listings (which are sharply up from March 2023) as a positive indicator for the RV sector, that folk intent on entering a village are finally now listing their existing property so as to ultimately relocate into such a facility.

Similarly the article records that price expectations are adjusting lower, and we know downside adjustments are psycologically difficult and have a greater lag time in the market than upside movements. More sales will follow once vendors are more comfortable with meeting the current market.

Of course listings made with that underlying purpose will always be only a minor proportion of the total, but most RV operators are presently offering incentives to take up an ORA to better drive occupation decisions. Hence I don't put a negative spin for RV investors on the statistics reported above.

lower prices mean new unit's would have to be priced lower and re-sales as well surely unless you believe the people entering these units dont see price as a consideration, but then that would imply rv stocks are recession proof which stock prices dont seem to imply

anyway more headlines today compounding the negativity

Property listings hit near-decade high

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money...cade-high.html

[ronaldson]

Article today in "Business Desk" that tells it like it is for the aged care sector and highlights the ever declining number of basic beds given the underfunding.

References the policy decisionmaking of OCA and ARV to divest facilities that either exclusively comprise or are overweight in the care bed component as a canary for how it will be in future and the demographic increase in the 85+ age group coming as the boomer generation approach that age and need such care and the lack of any plan to address this. At a minimum 13000 new beds required and none being built and existing facilities closing!

[Bjauck]

Article today in "Business Desk" that tells it like it is for the aged care sector and highlights the ever declining number of basic beds given the underfunding.

References the policy decisionmaking of OCA and ARV to divest facilities that either exclusively comprise or are overweight in the care bed component as a canary for how it will be in future and the demographic increase in the 85+ age group coming as the boomer generation approach that age and need such care and the lack of any plan to address this. At a minimum 13000 new beds required and none being built and existing facilities closing!

Oldies will need to sell their over-priced houses and see their capital dwindle more quickly to get a premium bed when the basic beds have gone. What will happen to the poor oldies without their own homes? The knacker’s yard?