Retirement village operators

[Bjauck]

Good to get the views from someone at the coal face. Possibly the Oceania model may be better in the long run with their greater emphasis on care as opposed to independent living.

I agree. However a caveat for that may be the adequate funding for such long term care. A great proportion of those higher needs residents may require government assistance. There will always be pressure on government to contain the cost of Health care. In the face of the continued absence of a general CGT, how much extra tax on Income will be necessary to fund the medical cost of the oncoming grey tsunami? Will the government need to revisit the means testing threshholds for single and married people?

[trader_jackson]

Good to get the views from someone at the coal face. Possibly the Oceania model may be better in the long run with their greater emphasis on care as opposed to independent living.

you mean the Oceania/Arvida/Ryman model?
aka not just Oceania... in fact by mid next year summerset will be the only listed 'retirement operator' that doesn't have a serious focus on care (and also the only ones that lose money on their care operation they say)... and I think sum people haven't realized that it is the focus on care that is beginning to drive demand for units more and more, not just units pumped out annually in nice places - all the listed operators can do this.

To expand on the critical point above, on a report produced by FNZ (now Jarden) 27 July 2018: "... significant difference between those operators with a focus on care (OCA & RYM) and those that have a greater retirement weighting. Both OCA and RYM have sufficient earnings from care to offset overheads and village services deficits while SUM and MET do not. We also note the high quality of OCA’s disclosure by segment, which provides greater confidence in understanding the core profitability of the business. We highlight that similar analysis is not possible for aged care counterpart ARV, given its financial and operating disclosure is more limited." Further analysis (and disclosures) by ARV would indicate they too "have sufficient earnings from care to offset overheads and village services deficits."

[Beagle]

The Dogs of the Dow is used by some to base their investments on

So in this sector 2020 will the year for the ‘dogs’ ....go SUM and OCA

Agree. Some companies have got ahead of themselves in terms of share price relative to earnings while SUM others have heaps of capital gain potential in 2020.
SUM's turn for 50%+ gain coming right up.

[Beagle]

I think a certain percentage of Australians are going to give up on retiring in Australia with the heat and bushfire risks and retire here instead.
Unprecedented bushfires and global warming a long term tailwind to retirement stocks in N.Z. with our much more moderate climate ?

[RTM]

I think a certain percentage of Australians are going to give up on retiring in Australia with the heat and bushfire risks and retire here instead.
Unprecedented bushfires and global warming a long term tailwind to retirement stocks in N.Z. with our much more moderate climate ?

OOOooooooops

[couta1]

I think a certain percentage of Australians are going to give up on retiring in Australia with the heat and bushfire risks and retire here instead.
Unprecedented bushfires and global warming a long term tailwind to retirement stocks in N.Z. with our much more moderate climate ?

It would help immensly if they ignorned the global warming impact bs and developed comprehensive fire break and controlled burn off systems instead, fires can only thrive if given fuel.

[RTM]

I think a certain percentage of Australians are going to give up on retiring in Australia with the heat and bushfire risks and retire here instead.
Unprecedented bushfires and global warming a long term tailwind to retirement stocks in N.Z. with our much more moderate climate ?

Retirement stocks and real estate in general.

[Beagle]

Retirement stocks and real estate in general.

Yes, fair comment which is a roundabout way is also good for retirement stocks here. Its always been a very hot and dry continent, much more so now days.

[winner69]

A CSIRO study from 10 years ago concluded that recent events in Australia more likely to happen 2020 onwards ....and continue to get worse

Interestingly the same report said such events are likely on the East Coast areas of NZ, Wellington and Nelson/Marlborough by 2030

Didn’t Nelson have a big fire last year?

[Beagle]

Might be a good time for a bunch of retirement villages in Dunedin...a high of only 14 today in the middle of summer probably gives residents every chance of dodging global warming completely, in fact they might welcome it lol