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  1. #231
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    Cluster in a rest home in Christchurch.

    Why does it always end up in the resthomes? There is hardly any community spread, and they are being very careful yet it is straight in there. Same in other countries too.

    Makes me wonder if there are loads of really mild cases everywhere, and it only gets noticed when it infects an old person as they are more symptomatic.

  2. #232
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    Quote Originally Posted by ratkin View Post
    Cluster in a rest home in Christchurch.

    Why does it always end up in the resthomes? There is hardly any community spread, and they are being very careful yet it is straight in there. Same in other countries too.

    Makes me wonder if there are loads of really mild cases everywhere, and it only gets noticed when it infects an old person as they are more symptomatic.
    Yes, talking to a tradie I know working in construction a month back said a lot of young guys he had come across on the job earlier in the year had varying symptoms of a mild flue. Unusual for Feb /march !

  3. #233
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    Quote Originally Posted by ratkin View Post
    Cluster in a rest home in Christchurch.

    Why does it always end up in the resthomes? There is hardly any community spread, and they are being very careful yet it is straight in there. Same in other countries too.

    Makes me wonder if there are loads of really mild cases everywhere, and it only gets noticed when it infects an old person as they are more symptomatic.
    There was a very good article in the Daily Telegraph a day or two ago about a different approach and much wider testing regime in Iceland. There they have found over 50% of confirmed cases asymptomatic. I think that answers your question. It was time consuming to set up a "free trial" account so I've copied the article below for those that are interested :

    How Iceland turned into the world's biggest study of Covid-19 - and what it's teaching us
    Mass testing has avoided lockdowns - but does this tiny island nation have all the answers?

    By
    Thor Fanndal
    REYKJAVIK
    4 April 2020 • 2:09pm
    Premium
    At the latest count 22,195 people had been tested - amounting to six per cent of the population. 1,364 have tested positive and four people have died.
    At the latest count 22,195 people had been tested - amounting to six per cent of the population. 1,364 have tested positive and four people have died.

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    You would be forgiven for thinking the tiny island nation of Iceland is being ravaged by coronavirus.

    Raw data shows the highest proportion of confirmed cases anywhere in the world - 1,300 among a population of 365,000.

    But step outside into the bright spring sunshine and you won't see ghostly quiet streets and shuttered businesses like in Italy and Spain.

    Instead the cafes, pubs and shops are doing a gentle trade, while schools remain open and travel is unhindered - even tourists are welcomed, the ones that manage to book a flight.

    The reason behind the high numbers is the most aggressive Covid-19 testing regime anywhere in the world.

    In proportion to population, Iceland has now screened five times as many as in South Korea - the poster country for a national Covid response - and 30 times as many as the UK has managed.

    At the latest count 22,195 people had been tested - amounting to six per cent of the population. 1,364 have tested positive and four people have died.

    With the results authorities are able to pursue aggressive quarantines for those with a higher statistical chance of infection, to slow the spread without a draconian nationwide shutdown.


    Across the world, countries tend to have settled into two camps in fighting the virus: containment or mitigation, Thorolfur Gudnason, the government's chief epidemiologist, tells The Telegraph.

    "It's like you would choose one or the other," he says. "Iceland is doing both."

    Mr Gudnason's team of 60 police investigators and healthcare workers act as detectives on each confirmed case, tracking down those they have come in contact with.

    Testing is carried out by The National Health Service on those showing symptoms. But on top of this, a biopharma company, deCODE Genetics, has been screening random samples of the population to build the world's most extensive study yet of how the virus behaves in a population
    Testing is carried out by The National Health Service on those showing symptoms. But on top of this, a biopharma company, deCODE Genetics, has been screening random samples of the population to build the world's most extensive study yet of how the virus behaves in a population
    Testing is carried out by The National Health Service on those showing symptoms. But on top of this, a biopharma company, deCODE Genetics, has been screening random samples of the population to build the world's most extensive study yet of how the virus behaves in a population.

    Early results show 50 per cent of carriers of the virus are asymptomatic. It has also revealed up to 40 'mutations', or strains, of the disease.

    “We can determine the geographic origin of the virus in every single [virus] in Iceland,” Kári Stefánsson, founder of deCODE says.

    They claim to have traced strains back to Italy, Austria, the US, and seven cases in particular to one undisclosed football match in the UK.

    Crucially, all the testing has meant Iceland has been able to avoid a lockdown or quarantine as cases are tracked, traced and isolated before spreading rapidly - thus alleviating pressure on the hospitals.


    The data rolling in has meant authorities can "more accurately design methods" of controlling the virus, Mr Stefánsson says.

    So far there is a government ban on gatherings of more than 20 people and light guidelines on social distancing.

    The guidance is imposed not by force but by trust, Katrín Jakobsdottir, Iceland's prime minister, tells The Telegraph .

    "Iceland has a history of socially liberal culture," she says. "That means acceptance of differences and minorities, but in this case, it means to trust, not to force. We have no tradition of militarism or an army. We ask for cooperation, rather than force it."

    She adds that the science approach allows her to leave the virus policy "out of the battlefield of politics".

    The limited guidelines means business is slow for most shops, but with few exceptions the country is open for business.

    Icelanders can still get their morning coffee, sit down at local bookshops. Even stop at a local ice-cream parlour.

    Citizens going about their business in Reykjavik
    In Reykjavik, life goes on as normal
    At Reykjavík Roasters, a small but popular independent cafe in Reykjavík's centre, customers trickle in despite the pandemic. The city's centre is unusually calm.

    “Honestly, what I miss more than anything are the public pools” pensioner Auđur Styrkásdóttir says apologetically, adding “this is a luxury.”

    One of the main benefits of Iceland's system is the school programme has been largely unaffected.

    Pre-schools, primary, and secondary schools have stayed open while higher education has moved online.

    Some people have taken to social media asking why children's safety is perhaps taken less seriously than those of adult students.

    Mr Gudnason points out that closing down institutions that serve children has a more significant social impact

    "Our study suggests that children are less effective in spreading this virus than adults. We measure every decision with it's effectiveness and closing these institutions is unlikely to produce meaningful results at this time."

    Part of Iceland's success story is it's readiness.

    "We realised at the end of 2019 that we should prepare for a pandemic," Mr Gudnason says.

    "Our emergency system is clear, it is efficient and importantly frequently in use. Be it storms, avalanches, volcanic eruptions or a pandemic the system is the same. Health authorities step into a well-oiled machine, highly trained infrastructure and years of experience in building communication channels and trust."

    On Friday the head of Iceland's response, Víđir Reynisson, warned against drawing too much from the Iceland model, pointing out that the country's size, strong channels of communication and social cohesion helped.

    "There are many factors that make things easier on us," he said.

  4. #234
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    "Early results show 50 per cent of carriers of the virus are asymptomatic. It has also revealed up to 40 'mutations', or strains, of the disease.

    “We can determine the geographic origin of the virus in every single [virus] in Iceland,” Kári Stefánsson, founder of deCODE says.

    They claim to have traced strains back to Italy, Austria, the US, and seven cases in particular to one undisclosed football match in the UK. "

    Thanks Iceman....the above bit really interesting.
    Total population less than 400K makes it a lot easier to manage as well I think.
    I expect quite a bit of scrutiny about the speed and ability of our traceback and what the government is doing in this area. This bit is critical.

  5. #235
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    Quote Originally Posted by ratkin View Post
    Cluster in a rest home in Christchurch.

    Why does it always end up in the resthomes? There is hardly any community spread, and they are being very careful yet it is straight in there. ...
    Rest home residents and rest home hospital residents require fairly comprehensive care by carers and nurses. This is unavoidable. Consequently it puts both employees and residents at risk of viral transmissions and communicable diseases. Even when care is taken to prevent spread.

    Unlike both the young and elderly people who are able to live independently, the elderly (and those who have debilitating conditions) who need to live in care, cannot self isolate. Likewise those who are employed in care and nursing cannot self-isolate; they can only try their darnedest to self-protect, whist still imparting the necessary care for their clients/patients.

  6. #236
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    We are all doing out best to keep it out. Staff are going to work and going home to lockdown, just as everyone else is. Some staff however, will have partners or adult children working in essential services, just as they are. They still have to live under the same roof. I am one of the lucky ones, living alone so my “home” bubble consists of just myself. Not everyone is in that situation however.

    You also need to remember that there are no guarantees about the 15 days incubation period. Who knows exactly what it is and whether it is the same for everyone? We have only been in lockdown for 18 days - so the virus could have been incubating in those rest homes from before lockdown.

    Either way, residents in rest homes are being cared for as always and will continue to be. I guarantee if you walked into our rest home today, and asked our residents if they would prefer to be moved elsewhere for the lockdown, they would say “No. This is my home and I am as safe here as anywhere right now.”

    We are experiencing a unique situation globally. We have never experienced anything like this before, so there is no rule book to follow. Humans are not infallible. Not politicians, not medical professionals, not share traders/investors, not you and definitely not me. Lessons will be learned and hopefully if we are ever unfortunate enough to go through something like this again in the future, we will have a better understanding and we will be better prepared. Globally, nationally and as individuals.

    Quote Originally Posted by ratkin View Post
    Cluster in a rest home in Christchurch.

    Why does it always end up in the resthomes? There is hardly any community spread, and they are being very careful yet it is straight in there. Same in other countries too.

    Makes me wonder if there are loads of really mild cases everywhere, and it only gets noticed when it infects an old person as they are more symptomatic.
    Last edited by justakiwi; 06-04-2020 at 01:46 PM.

  7. #237
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    Quote Originally Posted by justakiwi View Post

    Either way, attacking or judging rest homes right now, is unfair and serves no useful purpose. Residents in rest homes are being cared for as always and will continue to be. I guarantee if you walked into our rest home today, and asked our residents if they would prefer to be moved elsewhere for the lockdown, they would say “No. This is my home and I am as safe here as anywhere right now.”
    I did not attack rest homes, I am just wondering how they are so over represented in case numbers world wide.

  8. #238
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    Quote Originally Posted by ratkin View Post
    I did not attack rest homes, I am just wondering how they are so over represented in case numbers world wide.
    I think justakiwi has summed up the challenges pretty well. When you consider there ~3000 staff at OCA alone, most of which don't have the luxury of working from home, the odds of it getting into some rest homes is pretty high, especially if there are asymptomatic carriers out there.

  9. #239
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    Quote Originally Posted by ratkin View Post
    I did not attack rest homes, I am just wondering how they are so over represented in case numbers world wide.
    They are also over-represented in the particularly vulnerable groups - elderly, other health conditions, lower resistance to disease.

  10. #240
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    Yes, I realised that so edited my post straight away. Apologies.

    Quote Originally Posted by ratkin View Post
    I did not attack rest homes, I am just wondering how they are so over represented in case numbers world wide.

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