Retirement village operators

[winner69]

With thoughts like that, the human race is “done.” We are our own worst enemies

...and we never seem to learn and are nearly always unprepared for the next disaster

Tim Harford did a good piece about this

http://timharford.com/articles/otherwriting/

[macduffy]

This thread has strayed a long way from "Retirement village operators" but thanks, winner, for the link to Tim Harford's writings. Good stuff!

[Cyclical]

This thread has strayed a long way from "Retirement village operators" but thanks, winner, for the link to Tim Harford's writings. Good stuff!

Well, if the Stuff article regarding Sweden's take on it and the notion that we (NZ) are effectively backing ourselves into a corner with this thing for years to come, then I would expect that to have a pretty negative impact on this sector, or at least hold it back from performing to its potential. Because (a) we Kiwis won't be able to tolerate being isolated from the international community for a lengthy period of time, (b) because of (a), we will continue to have outbreaks in NZ, and (c) that means a rough ride for the RV sector with lockdowns, visitor restrictions and general nervousness.

[Blue Skies]

Well, if the Stuff article regarding Sweden's take on it and the notion that we (NZ) are effectively backing ourselves into a corner with this thing for years to come, then I would expect that to have a pretty negative impact on this sector, or at least hold it back from performing to its potential. Because (a) we Kiwis won't be able to tolerate being isolated from the international community for a lengthy period of time, (b) because of (a), we will continue to have outbreaks in NZ, and (c) that means a rough ride for the RV sector with lockdowns, visitor restrictions and general nervousness.

Important to note, this is a single persons opinion, not Swedens take on it.
To provide some balance to this former Chief epidemiologist & single experts opinions (which seems to me to be by far the most pessimistic opinion of the many 'experts' opinions being expressed), Swedens current Chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnal in charge of Swedens response & who had previously defended the countries decision not to impose a lockdown, is now saying he is not at all convinced the anti lockdown strategy was the best option to take after all.
'We are starting to near 3000 deceased, a horrifyingly large number. Im not convinced at all, we are constantly thinking about this' he said.

IMO theres no doubt lockdowns work for Retirement villages, its the breaches that need to be fixed,
e.g. the one healthcare worker who had contact with an infected person on the Ruby Princess resulting in the Rosewood Rest home cluster & 11 deaths, & the healthcare workers at Waitakere whose PPE was not changed often enough & whose masks became damp from exertion & therefore useless.
Both of these breaches could easily have been avoided if we had known at the time, what we know now.

[Scrunch]

Well, if the Stuff article regarding Sweden's take on it and the notion that we (NZ) are effectively backing ourselves into a corner with this thing for years to come, then I would expect that to have a pretty negative impact on this sector, or at least hold it back from performing to its potential. Because (a) we Kiwis won't be able to tolerate being isolated from the international community for a lengthy period of time, (b) because of (a), we will continue to have outbreaks in NZ, and (c) that means a rough ride for the RV sector with lockdowns, visitor restrictions and general nervousness.

If you are referencing the article I think you are, it has some extremely strange statistics embedded within it. I'd be very cautious using it to make any decisions. A better explanation is that Sweden is needing to discredit anyone taking a different approach and appearing to have success with this different approach so NZ is among the top of this list to discredit. Sweden has a population double ours and has had over 2,000 people aged 80+ die (or circa 1,000 if scaled to NZ's size). To suggest NZ's approach is problematic and will create a rough ride for retirement villages is .... !!!

[Cyclical]

If you are referencing the article I think you are, it has some extremely strange statistics embedded within it. I'd be very cautious using it to make any decisions. A better explanation is that Sweden is needing to discredit anyone taking a different approach and appearing to have success with this different approach so NZ is among the top of this list to discredit.

Agreed.

To suggest NZ's approach is problematic and will create a rough ride for retirement villages is .... !!!

I hope you don't think that is what I'm suggesting? If so, then clearly I didn't do a good job of writing it, as that definitely isn't what I meant. In fact the post above that i said: "I find that article a bit sickening TBH. Their approach (Sweden's) seems to be one of "who cares about the vulnerable?""

For the record, I am very happy with NZ's approach to date.

What I was basically getting at in a long winded way was that if this virus is a big problem for potentially the next 10 years, as suggested by the character in the Stuff article, then it will be a rough ride for the RV sector (and NZ as a whole), due to all the restrictions and trying to prevent it from getting into rest homes and associated nervousness around that.

[Scrunch]

Agreed.



I hope you don't think that is what I'm suggesting? If so, then clearly I didn't do a good job of writing it, as that definitely isn't what I meant. In fact the post above that i said: "I find that article a bit sickening TBH. Their approach (Sweden's) seems to be one of "who cares about the vulnerable?""

For the record, I am very happy with NZ's approach to date.

What I was basically getting at in a long winded way was that if this virus is a big problem for potentially the next 10 years, as suggested by the character in the Stuff article, then it will be a rough ride for the RV sector (and NZ as a whole), due to all the restrictions and trying to prevent it from getting into rest homes and associated nervousness around that.

On the current trajectory NZ is on, its only going to be a month or two (if not less) before we are again having only imported cases. At this stage there won't be a need for any retirement village movement restrictions, other than the NZ border restriction that applies to everyone. This should lead NZ to be at L0 (or at worst L1).

I suspect that this hard border will get a bit softer in that people can travel if they accept a two-week quarantine back in NZ as part of that travel (and potentially 1+ month quarantine plus large costs if they do catch covid-19 overseas).

[nztx]

On the current trajectory NZ is on, its only going to be a month or two (if not less) before we are again having only imported cases. At this stage there won't be a need for any retirement village movement restrictions, other than the NZ border restriction that applies to everyone. This should lead NZ to be at L0 (or at worst L1).

I suspect that this hard border will get a bit softer in that people can travel if they accept a two-week quarantine back in NZ as part of that travel (and potentially 1+ month quarantine plus large costs if they do catch covid-19 overseas).

Agreed .. more imported cases is very likely .. then what ?

[Brain]

If a person or family wants to come to NZ permanently than a 14 day quarantine should not be a deal breaker. There is probably a good opportunity for a hospitality business to offer a bells and whistles wilderness quarantine.

[Balance]

If a person or family wants to come to NZ permanently than a 14 day quarantine should not be a deal breaker. There is probably a good opportunity for a hospitality business to offer a bells and whistles wilderness quarantine.

Good point, Brain.

Used to be the case in the old days in US & a few other countries, I believe?