Retirement village operators

[Brain]

If we many years of isolating arrivals like this guy implies property market will be affected
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/hea...ating-arrivals

Migration has been a big driver of growth and property last few years so this leads to much lower migration no doubt property values and how many houses we need to build will be impacted

If a person or family wants to come to NZ permanently than a 14 day quarantine should not be a deal breaker. There is probably a good opportunity for a hospitality business to offer a bells and whistles wilderness quarantine.

[Onion]

https://www.ft.com/content/c7e2863b-...d-bc8766545e97

Note: FT.com have made their coronavirus coverage free to access.

Investors rushed into sector hoping to profit from greying of baby boom generation ...

But the senior care business has never been easy. With coronavirus, it is becoming far more difficult: occupancy levels are falling at many senior communities and nursing homes as potential residents shy away from facilities that have been ravaged by the virus — and many that have not. According to a New York Times tabulation, at least 27,600 residents and staff have died so far, accounting for about a third of all US fatalities.

[Beagle]

...……......…………...

[justakiwi]

The whole aged care sector is very different here. Our residents have felt safer with us over lockdown than they would have anywhere else. We are operating at our own 2.5 level currently, with visitors now allowed, but only one nominated visitor per resident and visits 2 x a week, in the resident’s room. We will revise this in two weeks, but our residents are very accepting of how we are managing things, and they appreciate why we are doing it. I do not think NZ will see any mass exodus of our elderly, any form of care, including villages.

https://www.ft.com/content/c7e2863b-...d-bc8766545e97

Note: FT.com have made their coronavirus coverage free to access.

[Joshuatree]

Yes im very impressed with the conditions around visiting. Its tough and a bit sad i cant see my relative because im not the one with the enduring power of attorney but i fully support these actions and hopefully in afew weeks things will change. I read awhile back where over 2,500 care villages in the UK had Covid!!. We dont know how lucky we are folks...

[cymonger]

I'm an American with previous experience working as a psychologist with the elderly. Comparing the American and New Zealand systems right now is like comparing Apples to Bowling balls. The pervasive anti-science leadership in the US had led to a disastrous spread of the virus that will rage on for months if not years.

It is unfair to apply the same standard to New Zealand, who have embraced the science behind virus prevention, and are in many ways the envy of the world (there are some other factors such as size and isolation, but I digress). I hate it when people spread news that creates fear in seniors, as they are already a very vulnerable population prone to anxiety around health and financial matters. When you have a parent that can no longer take care of themselves, the most humane decision is often to understand they need help that you can no longer provide. I have seen far too many people in their 60's try and be a full-time nurse to their elderly parents, which often then affects their physical and mental health. The retirement homes and villages have done an excellent job thus far, and I'm sure will continue to do so. I have invested in this sector without reservation.

[Beagle]

The whole aged care sector is very different here. Our residents have felt safer with us over lockdown than they would have anywhere else. We are operating at our own 2.5 level currently, with visitors now allowed, but only one nominated visitor per resident and visits 2 x a week, in the resident’s room. We will revise this in two weeks, but our residents are very accepting of how we are managing things, and they appreciate why we are doing it. I do not think NZ will see any mass exodus of our elderly, from elderly in any form of care, including villages.

Thank you for your hard work and excellent post. Caregivers are hero's !

I'm an American with previous experience working as a psychologist with the elderly. Comparing the American and New Zealand systems right now is like comparing Apples to Bowling balls. The pervasive anti-science leadership in the US had led to a disastrous spread of the virus that will rage on for months if not years.

It is unfair to apply the same standard to New Zealand, who have embraced the science behind virus prevention, and are in many ways the envy of the world (there are some other factors such as size and isolation, but I digress). I hate it when people spread news that creates fear in seniors, as they are already a very vulnerable population prone to anxiety around health and financial matters. When you have a parent that can no longer take care of themselves, the most humane decision is often to understand they need help that you can no longer provide. I have seen far too many people in their 60's try and be a full-time nurse to their elderly parents, which often then affects their physical and mental health. The retirement homes and villages have done an excellent job thus far, and I'm sure will continue to do so. I have invested in this sector without reservation.

Excellent post, I couldn't agree more.

[bull....]

fletcher forecasting 30% reduction in building consents wow cant be good for village re-sales and building

[trader_jackson]

fletcher forecasting 30% reduction in building consents wow cant be good for village re-sales and building

Actually, I think it will be (good for village re-sales and building). A reduction in supply will almost certainly put upward pressure on prices (as I doubt demand for housing will suddenly drop by 30% like consents could do). And regardless, the population is only getting older, not all people move into villages because they like to, but some have to, and those with quality continuum of care will experience higher demand than those without such quality I would think.

[bull....]

Actually, I think it will be (good for village re-sales and building). A reduction in supply will almost certainly put upward pressure on prices (as I doubt demand for housing will suddenly drop by 30% like consents could do). And regardless, the population is only getting older, not all people move into villages because they like to, but some have to, and those with quality continuum of care will experience higher demand than those without such quality I would think.

be interesting to see in time what happens. your view not my view though im for retirement village operators to suffer lower re-sales , higher building costs , wage costs and reduced earnings and nta values in the next year and also no divs or at the least lower divs.