Retirement village operators

[mike2020]

100% agree with you Beagle. My daughter has worked in a few new BUPA villages and care homes and they are a joy to visit. I have family members buying into a 'keep your capital" group of homes and we are all a bit worried about the lack of support. They live in a small town away from the rest of the family and one has serious future care needs. Its a very short term plan with a lot of risk as far as I can tell.

[bull....]

Bull - I visited the Summerset village in Hobsonville as part of a small project I was working on and I must say I was very impressed. Everyone I met there seemed really happy and it had a wonderful ambience. Coincidentally this is the same village that this little marketing video with Jude Dobson was filmed at so you can see for yourself. This is what I call a full feature retirement village with all the bells and whistles.
It might interest you to know that based on my interview with the village manager there most people who move in are quite well heeled and have other investments, other than the home they sell.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cHC3TithchU&t=4s I fancy myself as more than a little handy with a table tennis paddle... Hmmm...I think I would really enjoy a village championship competition...something to look forward too when I retire They might even host inter-village competitions or if they didn't I might organize it. Believe me Bull, people don't feel ripped off there. They feel happy, connected, content, secure and enjoy wonderful community facilities and the camaraderie of fellow residents. Its vastly better than being stuck alone, isolated and unsupported in suburbia somewhere wondering what to do each day ? there's always something happening in a vibrant village like this and people can choose how much or how little they feel like being involved with. I stood on the front deck of a waterfront unit on a beautiful sunny morning and the tide was in... chatting away with management about how the development had gone for SUM. Its been a very successful village for them AND the residents and frankly I can see why. This dog thought it was "purrfect"

with fbu now getting in i imagine when you retire the retirement village market will have evolved into a market catering for everyones wallet size

[artemis]

At some stage you have to ask what's the point though, without amenities or care they are better off keeping their existing free hold residential property if they value their capital the most.

That's a good point, and an option. Pay for in home care, financial support from family with expectations (or not). Reverse mortgage if no family.

[mike2020]

That's a good point, and an option. Pay for in home care, financial support from family with expectations (or not). Reverse mortgage if no family.

The family member I mentioned has a half acre garden and a two story house. The move is still worthwhile.

[Beagle]

with fbu now getting in i imagine when you retire the retirement village market will have evolved into a market catering for everyones wallet size

Yes but as Couta1 mentioned there are already quite a number of very low amenity villages doing deals that allow residents to keep a share of the capital gain. Horses for courses. I'd rather retire in a happy vibrant community with lots of things to do. Top of the list will be becoming village champion at Bowls and table tennis

[trader_jackson]

Goodness me, as we inch closer to the end of the year, I nearly fell of my chair to see ARV is on track for another winning year! Winning at least in terms of producing the best return of the listed retirement stocks...

You wouldn't read about it but I think the oldest dog in the book - Arvida - has ended up having the best return of the listed retirement stocks for the 3 out of the almost exactly 7 years its been listed... if that's true, it certainly has been no dog!

NZX website telling me the below (52 Week Change):
RAD: -74.00%
RYM -17.92%
OCA: -1.47%
TAH: no change
SUM: +16.85%
ARV: +22.50%

One thing is for sure - gone are the days when some (most?) didn't even use to consider ARV as a listed retirement village operator.

[Beagle]

For sure t.j. I have a good sized ARV holding and am expecting good things going forward.
House prices going gang busters but expected to moderate going forward.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...5VA43YYZNKQUQ/

[artemis]

Interesting article at below link - What baby boomers want in retirement living.

More technology, less lawn bowls.

Also numbers living in Australian RVs and projected numbers for 2025. Up 30%. That's more than 50,000, looks good for some of our sector expanding across the ditch. Similar % here?

https://www.yourlifechoices.com.au/l...illage-living/

[flyinglizard]

Screenshot 2021-12-31 141012.jpg

Updated key summary in retirement village sector.

OCA is at the position where it should be, for a slow growth rate. Its div is 4.14%, highest in the setcor.

ARV is in line with historical high growth rate, PE ratio is similar to SUM. PB RATIO is 1.26, lower than SUM of 1.89. ARV is in its early growth stage, far away from being matured.

SUM meets expectation of growth, high earning, low PE, low PB, lowest div reflecting its successful growth model.

RYM has highest PE of 12.45 Highest PB of 2.06, a respected matured company.

The average PE for those big four companies is 8.59. ARV and SUM are super stars in the industry. Sorry, cannot find out BUPA financial figure. RAD has been removed from my watchlist due to its leasehold business model.

[Charlie]

Is PHL Promisia too small to add to the group.?
new director ex Ryman might make a few changes . SP is as low as it can go between -001 and -002 c
It will be interesting where it might be in 3-4 yrs time.