True indeed. but it's also around the long term average for house price increases so it isn't adding to extraordinary growth in any way.
as an aside
I recently told someone that the average house price will eventually be $5 million, they said that's impossible, I said it's mathematics. 7% compounding growth will get there eventually
whilst over the past 100 years we have seen this trend of house price growth, in the long run it is also a mathmatical impossibility for it to continue assuming gdp remains an average of 2% per year.
debt can expand which is what we’ve seen in the past but it has limits as we’re seeing with rising interest rates and rapidly deflating property prices
So tell me. Do you hold this sector and are you buying? Curious minds would like to know.
I bought back into RYM last week.
Was my first ever stock I purchased in 2009 for $2.10ish from memory and rode it up to $8 ish and sold to pay off rental property loans. Now just got a few thousand in the portfolio so low $6 seems very reasonable. Using the Buffett principles, the company still has amazing long term prospects, solid enough business structure (I think the debt levels will be able to ride out the current interest rates, property slump), I can understand the business it’s a pretty simple business model, the management is trustworthy enough and I deem the current prices attractive for a long term holder.
Only downside I see is the recent DRP I think is a ploy to issue capital to sure up their balance sheet, diluting shareholder value, but the optimist in me says they are just having forethought to ride out the storm for the next 1-2 years and sure up the balance sheet. The return on equity is in the mid-high teens most years so didn’t see this as a huge red flag.
worst could be to come next yr
property developers really struggle cashflow wise in a downturn some even may go bust discounted cabbage anyone?
As yet no one has managed to stop the aging process.Property prices adjust,but aging does not stop.
NZ has a huge growing number of people at retirement village entry age.
Also when Nana needs to go into care, the property market becomes irrelevant.
With the Govt and not for profit organisations unable to cope,the listed village operators have a solid future.
As yet no one has managed to stop the aging process.
NZ has a huge growing number of people at retirement village entry age.
The sector has a bright future.
Also when Nana needs to go into care, the property market becomes irrelevant.
yes many people entering retirement age but not all will want to go into a retirement village therefore you need to look at it in % terms of the pool of people and supply and demand
ie my parents want to stay in there home long as possible so they may just go from there home to rest home
if the sector had such a bright future stock prices would not have declined as much as value investors would have prevented this ... cashflow issues coming mean value investors are no where to be seen
of course but to companies property market is paramount
yes many people entering retirement age but not all will want to go into a retirement village therefore you need to look at it in % terms of the pool of people and supply and demand
ie my parents want to stay in there home long as possible so they may just go from there home to rest home
if the sector had such a bright future stock prices would not have declined as much as value investors would have prevented this ... cashflow issues coming mean value investors are no where to be seen
of course but to companies property market is paramount
Agree retirement village is not for everyone,however living alone is also not for everyone.
Security,and safety are big drivers of peoples' decision to enter a retirement village,more so than financial reasons.
All [most] Villages price their units well below their neighbourhood medium prices.
Wife and I looked at retirement villages 4 years ago,and decided to buy an over 60s unit instead.Mainly for privacy.We are 73.
I would expect if either of us have a health scare we will look at the situation again.Same goes for our friends.
We will most probably buy a unit/car suite, then sell our property "at market", whatever that is at the time.
Most commentators forget a great number of people do not have all their wealth tied up in their home.Some people own several houses,while others have substantial share portfolios..
Yes, but what rest home? A very basic, traditional rest home run by a not for profit organisation? (like the one I work in). Or maybe a standalone private one run by a nice couple? Or would you rather they moved into a modern, well equipped, well staffed OCA care suite?
In 5-10 years, what we consider a "Rest Home" now, will no longer exist. The one I work at is a 30 bed + 2 respite bed, home. Rest home level only, which means the residents have been assessed as needing the lowest level of residential care. Most require minimal assistance/supervision with showering. Some require assistance with toileting/personal cares and dressing. The rest are there because they were struggling with cooking, cleaning, gardening, property maintenance etc, or as one lovely gentleman keeps reminding me "I'm only here because I kept trying to burn the house down!" Ours is the only rest home level facility in our area. The vast majority of "Rest Homes" now have additional hospital level beds, and some have dementia wings. Those "extras" will very shortly be the minimal level of care needed. Our residents are coming into care at a much older age. Ours range from 62-106! But that will not be the norm down the track.
Which means, if your parents need to leave their home, the chances are very high that the larger providers will be the only ones providing the level of care they need. There will be no more local rest homes run by the nice couple down the road. The NFPs may stay afloat but there is no way they will be able to provide the level of care, and number of beds needed. They don't have the money.
I think part of the issue I see in these discussions, is a general lack of understanding of aged care, plus confusion over the terminology used. It is clear to me that many here do not understand what "care" actually means. Neither do they appear to understand the different levels of care.
Percy is 100% correct.
Originally Posted by bull....
yes many people entering retirement age but not all will want to go into a retirement village therefore you need to look at it in % terms of the pool of people and supply and demand ie my parents want to stay in there home long as possible so they may just go from there home to rest home
if the sector had such a bright future stock prices would not have declined as much as value investors would have prevented this ... cashflow issues coming mean value investors are no where to be seen
of course but to companies property market is paramount
Originally Posted by Relaxed
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discounted cabbage anyone?
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