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 2020 Predictions
Just read this on the Herald, and would be interested to get your opinions on what could happen in 2020 in terms of the market and wider economy. Things change so fast in a year and based on what happened in 2019, there's definitely things that could happen that catches everyone off guard.
In 2019, The trade deal surprised me, the lack of effect on the market of the trump impeachment. The local markets getting incredibly over valued as people chased yields due to the 50 basis point cut.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12292126
Here's mine for 2020:
- I see the markets chugging along to ATHs again, breaking the 13000 barrier on the local market with a lot of talk about a impending recession from naysayers. The thing that could change everything is if the reserve bank tries to increase rates which could be a thing later in the year.
- House prices keep hitting new records, kiwibuild continues to fail and the govt continues to struggle reigning things in. The commercial property stocks (GMT, PCT, KPG etc) continue growing and the retirement stocks continue to post record profits.
- Jacinda wins the election narrowly, despite Labour losing the common vote, they just about get it on seats. Their biggest asset is the fact Bridges is the leader on the opposite side. He resigns and Judith Collins takes them further right.
- Trade deal happens but US have to concede a bit to get it done. Trump wins the election, after Biden becomes the primary. Trump brings out all skeletons in Biden's closet and verbally destroys him on the campaign trial. Expect the US market to be more volatile in 2020 with the election swinging.
- Brexit continues to be in limbo for the UK and the country is more volatile during the year.
Last edited by value_investor; 14-12-2019 at 05:03 PM.
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Member
I expect stock market will continue to rise as Trump won't let it down because he needs to be re-elected.
Some fundamentals support stock rising: Solid US economy, strong corporate profit, good consumer sentiment, etc.
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Member
 Originally Posted by value_investor
Just read this on the Herald, and would be interested to get your opinions on what could happen in 2020 in terms of the market and wider economy. Things change so fast in a year and based on what happened in 2019, there's definitely things that could happen that catches everyone off guard.
In 2019, The trade deal surprised me, the lack of effect on the market of the trump impeachment. The local markets getting incredibly over valued as people chased yields due to the 50 basis point cut.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12292126
Here's mine for 2020:
- I see the markets chugging along to ATHs again, breaking the 13000 barrier on the local market with a lot of talk about a impending recession from naysayers. The thing that could change everything is if the reserve bank tries to increase rates which could be a thing later in the year.
- House prices keep hitting new records, kiwibuild continues to fail and the govt continues to struggle reigning things in. The commercial property stocks (GMT, PCT, KPG etc) continue growing and the retirement stocks continue to post record profits.
- Jacinda wins the election narrowly, despite Labour losing the common vote, they just about get it on seats. Their biggest asset is the fact Bridges is the leader on the opposite side. He resigns and Judith Collins takes them further right.
- Trade deal happens but US have to concede a bit to get it done. Trump wins the election, after Biden becomes the primary. Trump brings out all skeletons in Biden's closet and verbally destroys him on the campaign trial. Expect the US market to be more volatile in 2020 with the election swinging.
- Brexit continues to be in limbo for the UK and the country is more volatile during the year.
Agree with most of this .....US Election the event to watch. Retirement stocks in NZ a no brainer winner. Wish we had more to pick from in that sector. New entrants would be welcomed.
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Dow to climb to over 33,000 next year. (Forward PE of their market is very reasonable at around 17.5 times) their consumer confidence is much stronger and as trade tensions ease global mega stocks should do very well. NASDAQ to also rise 20%+
ASX also likely to have a big 20%+ year in 2020 as their market is also quite inexpensive for where interest rates are and will be a major beneficiary of easing trade tensions.
NZX will struggle to gain 10% in 2020 as its already very expensive on an average forward PE of 29 and will be affected by gradually rising long term interest rates.
Utilities and REIT's to have a poor year due to gradually rising interest rates.
Bonds a very bad place to be as interest rates have already bottomed and will rise later in 2020.
Trump to get into power again, likewise Jacinda.
Retirement sector to have a big year in 2020, MET to disappear from the NZX early in 2020 as its taken over or merged.
No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).
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Some predictions
2020 budget will deliver a helicopter rebate drop of money to every individual tax payer between $500-$700.
Blis Technologies will be the star performer on the NZX .
TOWER will be taken over.
Port Otago will announce plans for IPO
UK Pound will makes significant gains on Forex market
Scottish Government will announce it intends to proceed with Independence referendum despite British government refusal to authorize
A scandal will arise concerning an New Zealand MP who will go to a certain overseas country and not return.
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Jacinda to win, trump to win, brexit will happen causing markets to fall then rise. Dow to rise
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Member
I'm predicting Trump will be found guilty in the House of running an extortion racket on the Ukraine and the turd will be tossed on November the 3rd. That will have a temporary effect on the Dow but it will rebound quickly. MSFT Azure will be continue to be a huge wealth generator for shareholders.
Brexit will continue to be a festering debacle with the Northern Ireland issue being insoluble and Boris will quickly lose his moJo.
The Nats will win outright
The real share market gains will be in OZ with CSL and the retirement sector making the biggest.
Meanwhile Climate Change will continue to accelerate and deniers will become as rear as Labour supporters.
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Originally Posted by Sgt Pepper
A scandal will arise concerning an New Zealand MP who will go to a certain overseas country and not return.
Interesting prediction there Sarge!
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Originally Posted by Sideshow Bob
Interesting prediction there Sarge!
Yeah - who is she?
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Originally Posted by Lewylewylewy
Jacinda to win, trump to win, brexit will happen causing markets to fall then rise. Dow to rise
Ah, Little Miss Talkalot !
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Originally Posted by Sgt Pepper
Some predictions
2020 budget will deliver a helicopter rebate drop of money to every individual tax payer between $500-$700.
Blis Technologies will be the star performer on the NZX .
TOWER will be taken over.
Port Otago will announce plans for IPO
UK Pound will makes significant gains on Forex market
Scottish Government will announce it intends to proceed with Independence referendum despite British government refusal to authorize
A scandal will arise concerning an New Zealand MP who will go to a certain overseas country and not return.
BLT making a bit of a move today at 5.1 and already up over 200% from a 52 week low of 1.6. I hope the Sarge's "star performer" prediction for 2020 comes true - another 200%+ gain or more for next year will be a fantastic outcome.
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Member
Originally Posted by Sgt Pepper
Some predictions
TOWER will be taken over.
Probably right and about par for the course for the NZX. Just as a business is turning around and has years of steady growth in front of it. Someone could offer 30% more and long suffering shareholders will jump at it. Any guess who might be interested?
Alternatively, I predict Tower pays a 1 cent dividend and attracts more interest.
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Originally Posted by Sgt Pepper
Some predictions
2020 budget will deliver a helicopter rebate drop of money to every individual tax payer between $500-$700.
Blis Technologies will be the star performer on the NZX .
TOWER will be taken over.
Port Otago will announce plans for IPO
UK Pound will makes significant gains on Forex market
Scottish Government will announce it intends to proceed with Independence referendum despite British government refusal to authorize
A scandal will arise concerning an New Zealand MP who will go to a certain overseas country and not return.
A little bit spooky, you might know something overs don't right now. Perhaps a national MP in China?
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i will probably over eat during the xmas period
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With Reserve Bank requiring higher capital ratios ANZ will announce partial share float in New Zealand.
Winston Peters will step down as NZ First leader in July
ACT will rise to 3% prior to the election
NZ General election will be held in August.
Tiwai Point smelter will stay open
Dunedin residential property will have the highest growth rate in NZ
NZ Navy will announce procurement plan for two ice breaker Naval vessels which will be based at Port Chalmers Dunedin
Donald Trump will easily win in November Presidential election
Democrats will capture both House of Representatives and the Senate
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