2020 Predictions

[value_investor]

Just read this on the Herald, and would be interested to get your opinions on what could happen in 2020 in terms of the market and wider economy. Things change so fast in a year and based on what happened in 2019, there's definitely things that could happen that catches everyone off guard.

In 2019, The trade deal surprised me, the lack of effect on the market of the trump impeachment. The local markets getting incredibly over valued as people chased yields due to the 50 basis point cut.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12292126

Here's mine for 2020:

- I see the markets chugging along to ATHs again, breaking the 13000 barrier on the local market with a lot of talk about a impending recession from naysayers. The thing that could change everything is if the reserve bank tries to increase rates which could be a thing later in the year.

- House prices keep hitting new records, kiwibuild continues to fail and the govt continues to struggle reigning things in. The commercial property stocks (GMT, PCT, KPG etc) continue growing and the retirement stocks continue to post record profits.

- Jacinda wins the election narrowly, despite Labour losing the common vote, they just about get it on seats. Their biggest asset is the fact Bridges is the leader on the opposite side. He resigns and Judith Collins takes them further right.

- Trade deal happens but US have to concede a bit to get it done. Trump wins the election, after Biden becomes the primary. Trump brings out all skeletons in Biden's closet and verbally destroys him on the campaign trial. Expect the US market to be more volatile in 2020 with the election swinging.

- Brexit continues to be in limbo for the UK and the country is more volatile during the year.