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Thread: Coronavirus

  1. #1
    2019 NZ Stock Picking Winner silverblizzard888's Avatar
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    Default Coronavirus

    Since this virus is only getting more serious, we should build out a discussion thread of its own since it has stock market implications for the overall market. I feel like many threads will discuss this so might as well put it all into one.

    China makes up about 11.5% of NZ's total travel numbers (450k out of 3.8 million visitors), currently it has restricted travel on tour groups from monday onwards.

    Here are some of the stocks likely to be affected (price tracking makes for a good case study too):

    AIR
    24/1/20 -$2.98

    THL
    24/1/20 -$3.00

    AIA
    24/1/20 -$8.88


    SKC
    24/1/20 -$4.07


    MCK
    24/1/20 - $2.72

    Stocks that could benefit from it:

    BLT
    24/1/20 -0.068

    AFT
    24/1/20 - $3.80

    FPH
    24/1/20 - $22.77


    Other potential impacts:
    ATM (May sell more or less milk powder into china)
    SML (May sell more or less milk powder into china)
    POT (shipments carry China ordered goods)
    SPN (shipments carry China ordered goods)
    NPH
    MMH
    QEX (NZ to China exports)

    Coronavirus Confirmed cases:30,827
    Deaths: 635
    Recovered: 1,615
    Last edited by silverblizzard888; 07-02-2020 at 12:42 PM.

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    A big benificiary is CSL. Its cancelled my trip to China.

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    In my city Tauranga chinese folk have cancelled celebrating chinese NY together.

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    Not sure whether BLT would be one though. May be the Chinese or anyone can buy them as a deterrent...

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    Another stock which I expect will benefit strongly from it is FPH, (anything to do with medical respiratory devices.)

    BTW, good post Silver Blizzard
    Last edited by Blue Skies; 26-01-2020 at 12:22 PM.

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    2019 NZ Stock Picking Winner silverblizzard888's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by carrom74 View Post
    Not sure whether BLT would be one though. May be the Chinese or anyone can buy them as a deterrent...
    BLT benefits cause it helps your immune system. Its products currently sell in quite a few places where the Coronavirus is in like China and Australia.
    Something like this could be good seller https://blis.co.nz/collections/home-...-with-blis-k12

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    2019 NZ Stock Picking Winner silverblizzard888's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blue Skies View Post
    Another stock which I expect will benefit strongly from it is FPH, (anything to do with medical respiratory devices.)

    BTW, good post Silver Blizzard
    Quite true, good mention, I'll add it to the above list.

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    Just noting that there is another Coronavirus thread on "Off Market Discussions".

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    2019 NZ Stock Picking Winner silverblizzard888's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by horus1 View Post
    A big benificiary is CSL. Its cancelled my trip to China.
    Is that the ASX listed company? Makes sense, not sure you want to take the risk.

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    Quote Originally Posted by macduffy View Post
    Just noting that there is another Coronavirus thread on "Off Market Discussions".
    ..but viruses spread like wildfire - so new threads could pop up anywhere
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

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    Pharmacies are doing a roaring business here in HK as people have stocked up on N95 face masks and hand sanitiser. Many have sold out of the former and jacked up prices (in some cases prices are reported to have trippled).

    It's possible MCK may be another potential loser?

  12. #12
    2019 NZ Stock Picking Winner silverblizzard888's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by traineeinvestor View Post
    Pharmacies are doing a roaring business here in HK as people have stocked up on N95 face masks and hand sanitiser. Many have sold out of the former and jacked up prices (in some cases prices are reported to have trippled).

    It's possible MCK may be another potential loser?
    Happening here in NZ too, everyones buying out the N95 face mask. True MCK will lose out a bit on the reduced tourist numbers.

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    Quote Originally Posted by silverblizzard888 View Post
    Other potential impacts:
    ATM (May sell more or less milk powder into china)
    SML (May sell more or less milk powder into china)
    POT (shipments carry China ordered goods)
    SPN (shipments carry China ordered goods)
    QEX (NZ to China exports)
    Are POT and SPN more affected than MMH and NPH?

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    massive news just out

    Coronavirus Spurs China to Suspend Tours Abroad and Xi to Warn of a ‘Grave Situation’






    China said on Saturday that it would suspend all tour groups and the sale of flight and hotel packages for its citizens headed overseas, starting on Monday.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/25/w...ronavirus.html



    wall st futures are implying a big fall monday

    bull
    One step ahead of the herd

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    Corona vs measles vs influenza,influenza beats the all
    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...se/4564133002/

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    president Xi Jinping ordered a faster response at home as the death toll in his country rose to at least 56
    More deaths were reported in regions outside of the epicenter of the virus and the number of confirmed infections surged to 1,975, with 324 people considered to be in severe condition.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...d=premium-asia


    only matter of time before hits NZ i reckon and appears at the moment if you are old you should be more worried
    bull
    One step ahead of the herd

  17. #17
    2019 NZ Stock Picking Winner silverblizzard888's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by turnip View Post
    Are POT and SPN more affected than MMH and NPH?
    Those could be affected too, just a bit of oversight on my part.

  18. #18
    2019 NZ Stock Picking Winner silverblizzard888's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    president Xi Jinping ordered a faster response at home as the death toll in his country rose to at least 56
    More deaths were reported in regions outside of the epicenter of the virus and the number of confirmed infections surged to 1,975, with 324 people considered to be in severe condition.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...d=premium-asia


    only matter of time before hits NZ i reckon and appears at the moment if you are old you should be more worried
    Its in Australia, US, UK and Canada, these countries share a lot of resemblance to NZ, I have no doubt it is only a matter of time.

    Now its about making preparations for your own health and stock portfolio.

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    I believe just like SARS this will be all over the news and then become old news. Great to see China proactive on this though. The market will temporarily drop and then keep going up

  20. #20
    2019 NZ Stock Picking Winner silverblizzard888's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ggcc View Post
    I believe just like SARS this will be all over the news and then become old news. Great to see China proactive on this though. The market will temporarily drop and then keep going up
    SARS impacted from November 2002 to July 2003, thats a 9 month period and theres talk about Corona Virus being 10 times as worse, so could well take the rest of the year to properly control and cure. Long term stocks will comes back, but short term isn't a great outlook. Its likely people will go out less, spend less on traveling and spend more on health type precautions. Its almost like a mini recession about to happen. (Possibly a black swan event many were waiting for)
    Last edited by silverblizzard888; 26-01-2020 at 04:05 PM.

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