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  1. #16
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/world...cid=spartanntp

    Sobering stuff in terms of predictions on the Australian economy. Its certainly food for thought in terms of its implications for the NZ economy.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  2. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/world...cid=spartanntp

    Sobering stuff in terms of predictions on the Australian economy. Its certainly food for thought in terms of its implications for the NZ economy.
    Completely out of OZ shares and happy to maintain that position until June 2020.

  3. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/world...cid=spartanntp

    Sobering stuff in terms of predictions on the Australian economy. Its certainly food for thought in terms of its implications for the NZ economy.
    Will not be much different for NZ Have been trying to diversify my portfolio away from this region for several years, might have been a good decision, only shares I own in aus are COH AND CSL plus LICs oh and Invocare funerals that bought last week, just in case there lots of extra burials coming up.

    More worried about the aussie banks have most of my money in them (the NZ branches). Not sure if money safer in stocks, or banks right now, but right now the 3% term deposits they locked into suddenly not looking so bad
    Last edited by ratkin; 08-02-2020 at 11:15 AM.

  4. #19
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    I have significantly reduced a lot of my investment positions including in Barramundi which is my sole Australian investment.
    I have no qualms whatsoever about taking a very conservative investment position for an (at this stage indeterminate) period of time.
    I think the effects on the global economy could be quite significant as they will be for the N.Z. and Australian economies and if I'm wrong I am happy to come out of this thing happy and healthy with much the same capital as when it started. 75% cash allocation now. Maybe its time for another picture to sum up my situation https://www.bing.com/images/search?v...t=0&vt=0&eim=1
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  5. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    I have significantly reduced a lot of my investment positions including in Barramundi which is my sole Australian investment.
    I have no qualms whatsoever about taking a very conservative investment position for an (at this stage indeterminate) period of time.
    I think the effects on the global economy could be quite significant as they will be for the N.Z. and Australian economies and if I'm wrong I am happy to come out of this thing happy and healthy with much the same capital as when it started. 75% cash allocation now. Maybe its time for another picture to sum up my situation https://www.bing.com/images/search?v...t=0&vt=0&eim=1
    Are you concerned about the safety of your cash? I am a little, do not trust the banks to hold up

  6. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by ratkin View Post
    Are you concerned about the safety of your cash? I am a little, do not trust the banks to hold up
    If it gets to that point we will all be toast.

  7. #22
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    Hopefully the problem is over by April.

    farming

    Coronavirus: 'Business as usual'

    Stuff

    A spokesman for Zespri said New Zealand-grown kiwifruit was not scheduled to arrive in China until April and it had only a small amount of Italian-grown fruit left to sell.

    "Zespri's intention remains to deliver the season as planned, though we are carrying out prudent scenario planning should the significant disruption in China continue," he said.

    About 25 per cent of New Zealand kiwifruit is exported to China, making it Zespri's second-largest export market after the European Union.

    The company employs about 70 people in China and all were working from home while its office there remained closed.

  8. #23
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ratkin View Post
    Are you concerned about the safety of your cash? I am a little, do not trust the banks to hold up
    To be honest, if this thing morph's into a global pandemic then you are right to be concerned about whether banks are at risk in which case something like this could be a prudent course of action.

    https://debtmanagement.treasury.govt...onds-dec18.pdf 1% return though so one is certainly NOT investing for a return on their money but for the return of their money in due course. Possibly worth noting that early withdrawals are allowable in $1,000 increments but you will get no interest on any money withdrawn early. Maximum of $500K per term. If the storm gets really severe that looks like a good place to take refuge with some of one's money with Govt backing and early drip feed returns are possible to buy supplies for one's bolt hole, if you can buy them, (possibly best to have a decent stock of food that keeps well in one's home already), in case its gets really ugly.
    Last edited by Beagle; 08-02-2020 at 11:39 AM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  9. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    Maybe its time for another picture to sum up my situation https://www.bing.com/images/search?v...t=0&vt=0&eim=1
    Love it!

    There are some upsides to the situation - notice how prices of beef and some seafood (crayfish, mussels and orange roughy) are dropping?

    Traveling and holidaying in NZ are getting more reasonable too.

  10. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by ratkin View Post
    Are you concerned about the safety of your cash? I am a little, do not trust the banks to hold up
    I park my liquid money in three countries bank accounts with insurance, the closest one to here is Australian banks actually in Aussie.

  11. #26
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    Any commentary on potential impact on housing in particular, associated shares. For example repairs to flooded houses, building of new housing stock .... potential to be hindered due to disruption of the supply chain of building materials. Also in Austrailia and the rebuild / repair of fire damaged property. Or am I overthinking and drawing a long bow??

  12. #27
    FEAR n GREED JBmurc's Avatar
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    Is a worry this corona virus could lead us towards GFC 2.0 ... Huge business losses worldwide while billions in corporate debt will be impossible to refinance just look at the O&G sector

    With 70 percent of the world’s oil supply comes from fields discovered before 1970, and the bulk of that comes from 10 to 20 enormous fields. The pace of discoveries has slowed dramatically in the past decade. In fact, conventional oil production largely plateaued in 2005. Since then, U.S. shale and Canadian oil sands accounted for most of the new supply. But as the number of bankruptcies in the shale patch reveal, the new forms of oil are more costly to produce.

    And now because of the recent collapse in the oil price we are looking a Billions of write downs and many more Billions needed to keep this high cost of Oil production


    Have been continuing to Hold many of my ASX pick Gold focused companies AUD Gold $2350oz and rising (was like $1800oz a year ago) and a few O&G Nickel plays which have been sold down a few percent
    People don't have ideas, ideas have people

  13. #28
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    https://www.businessinsider.com/coro...0-2/?r=AU&IR=T Hopefully something like this really does work while we wait for a proper vaccine to be developed and none of this armageddon stuff happens. Prepare for the worst and hope and pray for the best.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  14. #29
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    Totally agree JB. Shale was hailed as a great success. Reality is its not that great. If the virus morfs into the black swan it's timing could not be worse.

  15. #30
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    Is this the new coronavirus thread? What happened to the other one?

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