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  1. #41
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    Perhaps I should clarify-I have a margin lending account which was significantly in the red and I am perhaps over-cautious so just sold enough to be in the black again.Also wanted cash to feel more comfortable planning a round the World trip and catching up with relatives.
    I am of the opinion coronavirus will be over by August

  2. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by King1212 View Post
    Here we go again...de javu...last year was trade war....housing collapse...2008 will happen again...etc...then the market kept going up and everyone were annoyed.....
    I wasn't. I was delighted and even started putting a bit of temporarily spare money into ATM in the dips. When I next need to pay some taxes I will sell a slower moving stock (like HGH).

  3. #43
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    Article in the guardian about the likely impact on the Australian economy. While we are not that dependent on mining, the reminder might be quite relevant for NZ as well:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...st-hit-nations

    I guess the big themes are:

    1) Chinese have less money to buy stuff (due to lots of unpaid leave forced onto them)
    This will impact in NZ all companies selling into China (any fresh food, sea food, milk powder?, manuka honey, deer penis, cosmetics, other luxury items, ...)

    2) Chinese people may not travel impacting education and tourism
    Obvious impact on AIR, airports, hotels, other tourism business, schools and universities, private education providers, general business (malls) and tax intake

    3) Chinese factories will have long down times / lower productivity times:
    Less output means as well less input. Will impact on raw materials we provide to China (like logs ...), but might as well mean that stuff we need from China might be delayed.
    Not sure whether our retailers (HGL, KMD, WHS, others) can swap on the fly to other suppliers if Chinese factories don't deliver what was ordered?

    4) Rest of the world running out of essential parts they need from China for production and shut their factories down.
    This is an interesting one ... I guess we will find out whether some of our factories are dependent on Chinese parts, but would not expect too big issues. Though e.g. KiwiRail? Are they able to keep their Chinese locomotives on track if e.g. spares are delayed? Who else uses Chinese equipment?


    No matter what we think about the real virus risk ... the economic impact on NZ will be quite material if we lose say 3 to 6 months worth of business with one of our largest international trading partners.
    Last edited by BlackPeter; 09-02-2020 at 10:00 AM.
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  4. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Article in the guardian about the likely impact on the Australian economy. While we are not that dependent on mining, the reminder might be quite relevant for NZ as well:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...st-hit-nations
    Thanks for the link BP. Here's another article from CNN about the impact CV is having on the global economy with regards to disruption of trade, supply chains and travel. Also some mention to negative interest rates, rising global debt levels and how the big powers of the financial world have already depleted most of their arsenals in the fight against weak growth since GFC. It's not an all doom & gloom article though and does allude to some optimism if current interventions start slowing or arresting the spread of CV. However, there's no escaping the fact that first quarter impact since the emergence of the virus is going to have a significant impact on China with ripple effects being felt globally.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/08/b...omy/index.html
    Last edited by Mickey; 09-02-2020 at 10:40 AM.

  5. #45
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    China case growth has peaked, I suspect everyone will be back at work very soon.

    Screenshot from 2020-02-09 13:45:10.jpg

  6. #46
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    Personally I don't think it's over yet by a long shot. 4 months minimum before china gets back to work.

  7. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by allfromacell View Post
    China case growth has peaked, I suspect everyone will be back at work very soon.

    Screenshot from 2020-02-09 13:45:10.jpg
    It has only slowed down because they are all hiding indoors. It will spread again super quick if they go back to work. Singapore is a big worry now, international hub and seems to be generating a few cases, we will not know for a few weeks how that will turn out, but very few other countries will be prepared to put in the restrictions China has.

    The big 1918 flu went quiet for a while then surged back more powerful than before. It far too early to say this virus is on the run.

  8. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by allfromacell View Post
    China case growth has peaked, I suspect everyone will be back at work very soon.

    Screenshot from 2020-02-09 13:45:10.jpg
    I think this is unlikely to be the case .

    China has not accepted assistance by the world Health Organisation-without an outside agency monitoring personally I would not trust Chinese figures.Your screenshot does show thousands more each day contracting the disease
    These are reported figures no one really knows how many people with corona virus symptoms (can mimic a cold) do not declare themselves or even how reliable their testing is .
    We know that people in the asymptomatic stage have spread the disease eg in Germany .Therefore just measuring body temperature is not going to stop its spread .
    We do not Know how many doctors have caught it despite their infection control measures .
    It really is far to early to be so optimistic

  9. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by fish View Post
    ...
    We know that people in the asymptomatic stage have spread the disease eg in Germany .Therefore just measuring body temperature is not going to stop its spread .
    ...
    This is outdated (and incorrect) information. The media thought initially that the lady spreading the virus was symptom free, but found out later that she just suppressed her symptoms with various fever reducing medications.

    I don't think there is anywhere in the world evidence that the virus was transmitted from anybody before the transmitter showed symptoms. The German case definitely was not one of these cases.

    Sorry - while that's what media first released, it is (as we now know) the repetition of already debunked information.

    https://www.the-scientist.com/news-o...accurate-67060
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  10. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    So if the coronavirus killed 10 times more of the people killed to date, it will still be less than 5% of the total people killed by H1N1.

    Sobering, isn’t it when you consider that in the light of all the scare mongering, misinformation and odium being written in the media ( news and social).

    Take the opportunity and BUY quality stocks which are sold down by the panic created by the scare mongers.
    I reckon all the panic and doom and gloom merchants should have sold all their stocks long before this Coronavirus pussycat come along, check out how many people die daily from these 3 causes, Cardiovascular disease/Cancer and Car crashes, after you're checked out those figures tell me this thing is still anything to be that concerned about. Lol

  11. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    So if the coronavirus killed 10 times more of the people killed to date, it will still be less than 5% of the total people killed by H1N1.

    Sobering, isnít it when you consider that in the light of all the scare mongering, misinformation and odium being written in the media ( news and social).

    Take the opportunity and BUY quality stocks which are sold down by the panic created by the scare mongers.
    The truth was the first victim of this epidemic.
    The truth needs to be sought from your own research and listening to wise people and certainly not from anyone inciting people to buy or sell .
    The CDC changed their reporting in the H1N1 epidemic from confirmed only cases to probable and confirmed which increased the figures ten fold .A lot has been learned from all the previous epidemics mankind has endured which is why we are seeing such draconian measures being imposed to contain this disease.
    With global travel corona virus is spreading .Who would have thought families would contract the disease in the French Alps?
    People are travelling with the disease undetected by present measures.
    So much is uncertain-about the spread and the measures countries will take to control it .We do not know how long China will stay closed and the effect on markets

  12. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by see weed View Post
    Is this the new coronavirus thread? What happened to the other one?
    No it's not! This is the "Potential adverse effects from coronavirus on NZ economy" thread.

    All posts not on topic have been removed.

    Vince



  13. #53
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    no body has mentioned retirement villages as big losers in a corona virus outbreak. Even the ministry of health has a warning to avoid these places in such an event. the likely loss of life in these places would lead to near to nobody buying the units for re - sale for fear of contacting the disease.
    As the corona virus kills mainly old people i think these companies / places are very high risk of being affected by virus spread. on the plus side i guess companies like propel funeral could open up in close proximity for synergies savings on cartage.

    Even australia has a warning on these places.
    bull
    One step ahead of the herd

  14. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    no body has mentioned retirement villages as big losers in a corona virus outbreak. Even the ministry of health has a warning to avoid these places in such an event. the likely loss of life in these places would lead to near to nobody buying the units for re - sale for fear of contacting the disease.
    As the corona virus kills mainly old people i think these companies / places are very high risk of being affected by virus spread. on the plus side i guess companies like propel funeral could open up in close proximity for synergies savings on cartage.

    Even australia has a warning on these places.
    Yes..someone did mention the risk on one of the retirement village threads. And someone else (was it Couta?) responded that they were well set up to deal with such an event as part of their management programs.

    Personally I don’t think they would be very effective. But that’s my opinion only.

  15. #55
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    stepping back from all the detail & speculation, the fundamentals still apply. The market doesn't like unertainty. It shoots first and asks questions later. People will make money and people will lose money in the ensuing volitility.

    Keep calm and carry on, there is plenty to be learned here.

  16. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by Southern_Belle View Post
    stepping back from all the detail & speculation, the fundamentals still apply. The market doesn't like unertainty. It shoots first and asks questions later. People will make money and people will lose money in the ensuing volitility.

    Keep calm and carry on, there is plenty to be learned here.
    You will only lose money in this situation if you have short term tunnel vision.

  17. #57
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    Maybe you could rephrase that to
    " I believe i will only lose money in this situation if i have short term tunnel vision"

    And what do you mean by that? Remembering we all have our own unique situations re risk/reward, investing trading etc etc. Ours is we dont want to take the risk with our equities so have calmly reduced many of our holdings, and patiently will await the outcome which may take many months to resolve.

    Uncertainty is right Southern Belle, the mkt normally hates this but it hasn't really accepted there is more risk out there atm it maybe depends on this developing into a pandemic or not and whether the chinese all start going back to work shortly, because with china shut down there is a domino effect with supply chains globally. depending on whether we have a pandemic or not.. Coronavirus is proving to be more contagious then expected atp. Everyone has to make their own decisions for their own situ.
    Last edited by Joshuatree; 10-02-2020 at 09:34 AM.

  18. #58
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    I'm with JT on this. Over the last 2 weeks I have sold down around 40% of my NZX holdings, fairly evenly in all stocks. I do intend to sit on the rest while I watch how this will play out. I will give it at least 4-6 months before considering my money going back into the NZX As JT says, just calm implementation of my risk mitigation. Each to their own.

  19. #59
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    I understand some will sit and ride this out (and save up to 1-2% commission selling and buying back in later) which is what we've been doing since the GFC. That doesn't fit this time around for us as our situation is different this time and we are happy to lock in the gains we've made for now..

  20. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by iceman View Post
    I'm with JT on this. Over the last 2 weeks I have sold down around 40% of my NZX holdings, fairly evenly in all stocks. I do intend to sit on the rest while I watch how this will play out. I will give it at least 4-6 months before considering my money going back into the NZX As JT says, just calm implementation of my risk mitigation. Each to their own.
    I agree - at this stage is the impact of any adverse effects of this virus at best anybody's guess.

    While I personally think that the virus itself won't do more damage to humanity than any other new flu strain ... it is not the virus which impacts on our share markets, but human hype, overreactions and the resulting economic losses. It is easy to see (even in this thread) that there are people around who either panic themselves or they want others to panic.

    I removed most stocks from my portfolio directly impacted from the quite likely tourism / travel downturn (but MCK which I see more as a deep value property play), increased my cash component, hold one in my view grossly undervalued gold miner (OGC) and am holding some safe NZX bonds and the Australian Bear.

    A diversified portfolio with sufficient cash is in my view king in times like this.
    ----
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