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  1. #4651
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    Quote Originally Posted by fish View Post
    Sorry that you are confused about my posts.
    For your clarification I have stated that outdoors is very different to indoors and carries a much lower risk of transmitting an airborne virus -
    there is probably no significant risk at all unless you are close and someone is spitting in your face !
    I have not said we do not need to concern ourselves at dawn-I just described my observation that generally it is easier to avoid droplets at dawn when weed spraying because they fall down to the ground however the least air movement causes the droplets to move.
    It should be very obvious to anyone that being in an enclosed space you are likely to inhale far more what another person close to you is exhaling and that this will be time dependent
    Here's what you said 'I think its absurd to think we need distance when we are outside', which is not the same as your latest 'outdoors is very different to indoors and carries a much lower risk of transmitting an airborne virus -'
    But that's all fine. Now I'm totally un-confused, possibly, I think. "Steer clear of hooks bearing worms" .

  2. #4652
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    Quote Originally Posted by bottomfeeder View Post
    I think we will beat covid in nz soon, but how do we open up the borders without importing it again. What a conundrum.
    Hopefully they assess the border controls of the countries we open to which should be as effective or better than ours. If Australia opens travel to another country will these people be able to travel here?

    Ie from infected country to Australia to NZ.

  3. #4653
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    Quote Originally Posted by Panda-NZ- View Post
    Hopefully they assess the border controls of the countries we open to which should be as effective or better than ours. If Australia opens travel to another country will these people be able to travel here?

    Ie from infected country to Australia to NZ.
    A bubble is a bubble so if they are permitted into Aus. bubble,
    shouldn't be a worry then if coming here.

  4. #4654
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    Quote Originally Posted by tommy_d View Post
    as for the matt king debate, is it really worth the oxygen that some people are giving it in this thread?
    It does matter because the difference between our success at containing coronavirus and the US’s poor response comes down to the attitudes and beliefs of our leaders, those with power in politics, business, economics and society who determine what will happen. And not just current leaders either.

    Matt King is a MP so what he does and says matters a lot when we are thinking of moving forward and what sort of society we want in the future. The fact that he believes he can break rules and that is okay is really important, because that is an attitude that not only drives crime, but much of the economy and business too. It is very important to understand how entrenched such attitudes are as normal business practice. Businesses which do not push the boundaries are less competitive so there is pressure to do it too because everyone else is. Look at the companies applying for the wage subsidy.

    Courier companies have been deducting the Government's wage subsidy from payments made to drivers contracting during lockdown - a move unions say is illegal.
    Most couriers are independent contractors - meaning they should have control over their business, hours and working conditions. But that was often not the reality of their working situation. During lockdown, NZ Couriers has told drivers to take the Government's wage subsidy, which is only available for employees. Their contract for May states: "For the 12 weeks that the Government subsidy applies, $117 per day of contractor remuneration is assumed to have been received, and the company will contribute the balance up to 90 per cent of run's listed minimum earnings or tickets redeemed, whichever is greater."
    "Who benefits from the wage subsidy? It's not the applicant to the wage subsidy who is the contractor, it's the courier company and that's exactly what the wage subsidy scheme is not intended to do."
    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/a...ef=recommended

  5. #4655
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    Sydney still has untraced community transmissions, they however want the economy to recover so are lifting restrictions with haste. Some Hospital wards are being converted to specialist covid wards ( more words, not just the already existing ones ) apparently they are expecting an increase in cases.
    Last edited by arc; 22-05-2020 at 05:40 PM.

  6. #4656
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    I've been keeping an eye on US states now they are removing social isolation measures, looking to see if there is any evidence to support speculation of a second wave. Three weeks ago Georgia was the first state to "reopen" and I notice today that the latest number of Coronavirus deaths from that state are somewhat above prior trend. There are other states where cases are trending upwards but Georgia is particularly interesting as it seemed to have rates under control over a few weeks and where the first to remove quarantine measures. One bad day isn't conclusive either way of course but should draw attention to data over the next week or two from that state.

  7. #4657
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tomtom View Post
    I've been keeping an eye on US states now they are removing social isolation measures, looking to see if there is any evidence to support speculation of a second wave. Three weeks ago Georgia was the first state to "reopen" and I notice today that the latest number of Coronavirus deaths from that state are somewhat above prior trend. There are other states where cases are trending upwards but Georgia is particularly interesting as it seemed to have rates under control over a few weeks and where the first to remove quarantine measures. One bad day isn't conclusive either way of course but should draw attention to data over the next week or two from that state.
    I have active disengaged for a couple of weeks, see no mention here however is this a trend..

    The new Haves vs the Have nots. UK to issue immunity certificates. We are going nowhere for a while..

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-lockdown.html

  8. #4658
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raz View Post
    I have active disengaged for a couple of weeks, see no mention here however is this a trend..

    The new Haves vs the Have nots. UK to issue immunity certificates. We are going nowhere for a while..

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-lockdown.html
    Let's hope this gamble with Coronavirus by the UK government works this time = as opposed to their gamble with "herd immunity" which did not. We do not know much about Coronavirus immunity and how long it may last nor on the trustworthiness of tests.

    https://www.livescience.com/coronavi...ody-tests.html

    Issuing an immunity certificate will be divisive. However the UK Conservative government and its chief adviser does not shy away from division in order to try to achieve its goals.
    Last edited by Bjauck; 23-05-2020 at 09:16 AM.

  9. #4659
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    Quote Originally Posted by fungus pudding View Post
    Here's what you said 'I think its absurd to think we need distance when we are outside', which is not the same as your latest 'outdoors is very different to indoors and carries a much lower risk of transmitting an airborne virus -'
    But that's all fine. Now I'm totally un-confused, possibly, I think. "Steer clear of hooks bearing worms" .
    A little more clarification-
    Not from me but the latest from John Campbell.He talks about the risk of outside and inside with evidence and reasoning
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJMl...g&index=2&t=0s

    This is such an important concept and should be a lesson for the World.Transmission is very well covered-places to go to-places to avoid,temperatures,distancing inside and outside
    The risk of infecting dogs and cats
    Translate it into what parts of economies can operate in a Covid world and how we live and need to change to avoid Covid.

    The best news is how he starts by high-lighting the success of NZ .We did not need to stop people going outside.

  10. #4660
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    Quote Originally Posted by fish View Post
    A little more clarification-
    Not from me but the latest from John Campbell.He talks about the risk of outside and inside with evidence and reasoning
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJMl...g&index=2&t=0s

    This is such an important concept and should be a lesson for the World.Transmission is very well covered-places to go to-places to avoid,temperatures,distancing inside and outside
    The risk of infecting dogs and cats
    Translate it into what parts of economies can operate in a Covid world and how we live and need to change to avoid Covid.

    The best news is how he starts by high-lighting the success of NZ .We did not need to stop people going outside.
    Interesting video - particularly the ambulance queue in Russia!

    Disappointing 'analysis', or lack thereof of our death rate tough... 2 Key things that need to be highlighted there: 1) the number of imported cases among younger age groups - dont think a single one of our deaths comes from the near 40% of cases with direct links ot overseas travel, and then of course 2) the source of the majority of our deaths, the rest home where the majority were receiving end of life care anyway...

    That's an aside though, enjoyed the video, cheers for sharing!

  11. #4661
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    Quote Originally Posted by RnT View Post
    Interesting video - particularly the ambulance queue in Russia!

    Disappointing 'analysis', or lack thereof of our death rate tough... 2 Key things that need to be highlighted there: 1) the number of imported cases among younger age groups - dont think a single one of our deaths comes from the near 40% of cases with direct links ot overseas travel, and then of course 2) the source of the majority of our deaths, the rest home where the majority were receiving end of life care anyway...

    That's an aside though, enjoyed the video, cheers for sharing!
    Interesting point you make about NZ deaths.
    Although he does make points later-NZ case fatality rate is same as UK and the case fatality rate maybe related to the number of virus particles inhaled(of course also related to age,comorbidity and availability of oxygen and fluids).
    Sweden has a low death rate which may be due to spending more time outdoors(viral particles dispersed).
    As I have said before I do not believe we should have prevented outdoor activity where spacing allows avoidance of droplet spread.
    Also confining Covid cases in enclosed spaces may encourage spread and the long tail-eg the waitakere Hospital cases-initially transferred rest home cases that in Hospital spread to nurses and then spread through their families.
    If I recall correctly the last case was an example of the above and had been in quarantine with family for 8 weeks

    The good news about the video is that even if we have not walked the exact right path we have probably succeeded and have done best of any country.
    Last edited by fish; 24-05-2020 at 09:22 AM.

  12. #4662
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    Quote Originally Posted by fish View Post
    Interesting point you make about NZ deaths.
    Although he does make points later-NZ case fatality rate is same as UK and the death rate maybe related to the number of virus particles inhaled.
    Sweden has a low death rate which may be due to spending more time outdoors.
    As I have said before I do not believe we should have prevented outdoor activity where spacing allows avoidance of droplet spread.
    Also confining Covid cases in enclosed spaces may encourage spread and the long tail-eg the waitakere Hospital cases-initially transferred rest home cases that in Hospital spread to nurses and then spread through their families.
    If I recall correctly the last case was an example of the above and had been in quarantine with family for 8 weeks

    The good news about the video is that even if we have not walked the exact right path we have probably succeeded and have done best of any country.
    Sweden has a death rate of 396 per million = 100 times ours. And by world comparison could hardly be called low.

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    Quote Originally Posted by fungus pudding View Post
    Sweden has a death rate of 396 per million = 100 times ours. And by world comparison could hardly be called low.
    Correct - Swedens death rate per million people is even higher than Trump lands ... pretty impressive. I guess their strategy is right if the objective is to kill off most of their old people. Pretty disgusting though, that they choose for their elderlies such a terrible death, they don't even support them in their hospitals. Many of them have to die alone without even seeing a doctor to avoid infection fo the medical staff.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52704836

    "They told us that we shouldn't send anyone to the hospital, even if they may be 65 and have many years to live. We were told not to send them in," says Latifa Löfvenberg, a nurse who worked in several care homes around Gävle, north of Stockholm, at the beginning of the pandemic.

    "Some can have a lot of years left to live with loved ones, but they don't have the chance... because they never make it to the hospital," she says. "They suffocate to death. And it's a lot of panic and it's very hard to just stand by and watch."
    Disgusting strategy - sounds like medieval to me ...
    Last edited by BlackPeter; 24-05-2020 at 10:34 AM.
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  14. #4664
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    Quote Originally Posted by fungus pudding View Post
    Sweden has a death rate of 396 per million = 100 times ours. And by world comparison could hardly be called low.
    Good to point out that error I made but corrected at exactly the same time as you posted-you were really on the ball this morning
    For clarification Sweden has a low case fatality rate and John Campbell suggests its due to people being outdoors rather than confined inside houses .
    Overall mortality is high because they have this idea of herd immunity which will not work unless a country is prepared to let a lot of people die from Covid

  15. #4665
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    if the GFC was a smaller version of the (great global health and financial crisis) then certain sectors will recover at different rates just like in the GFC. Even if parts of your portfolio are in a loss position you can simply trade reflation of sectors in another portfolio. Assuming you have set up multiple portolios in multiple entities and have your software sorted out over the last ten years (youve had 10 years to prepare). Rolling in and out of sectors as they reflate or trade in a range. Assuming you have studied the sectors and stocks that reflated in the GFC and there rates of acceleration or where they simply traded in a range and for how long. Normal software solutions dont help you in this case such as simple accounting system designed for KFC accounting. You will need to have prepared and crafted your own solutions... be prepared and plan ahead. Now is the time to roll out that big picture plans you developed in case you did not get all out in time like the Brillant Mr B. It does not matter though as your plan should see you profit while you wait for your losses to return back to cost or profit in the long run.

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