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  1. #6241
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    Quote Originally Posted by kiora View Post
    Great article in my view
    More support is a violation of our free trade agreements, wto and our international obligations. plus it's simply bad for the economy versus direct consumer support. we are an economic world leader in part because we have upheld market principles for exporters while others have butter and milk mountains.

    I think quite little needs changing TBH. Though we could do with 5G cheaper and sooner though by overturning the ban on Huawei plus invest big in infrastructure in all areas.

    I slightly worry about the competence of an accountant who thinks debt from the RBNZ at 0.5% is a concern. It's past time to rebuild our schools and hospitals with this fixed low interest money. there may not be another time for this.
    Last edited by Panda-NZ-; Today at 09:18 AM.

  2. #6242
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    deleted - off topic
    Last edited by dobby41; Today at 08:59 AM.

  3. #6243
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    Quote Originally Posted by fish View Post
    Please pm me where you think I got something blatantly wrong about Covid .
    I have been posting since January about Coronavirus and am unaware where you think I got details blatantly wrong.If so I genuinely want to know.
    I will also explain about how a study lacks validity if you have not matched control with study group and treated identically.

    we could spend hours doing a critique on this study but it seems you now agree it is flawed .BTW it does not matter which steroid you use-if one group were more than twice as likely to receive a steroid they were not matched.Can you understand this basic or do you want me to explain more-if so I will do on the PM ?
    It is why in medicine we need double-blind controlled studies before any drug can be considered effective
    Hi @Fish, got busy over the weekend and was unable to reply.

    Look, I’d like to play nice here, we are both guilty of a number of thinly veiled insults which does nothing for constructive dialogue.

    Overall, I think we actually agree, the paper doesn’t prove effectiveness of treatment.

    That said, I’d encourage you to read the original paper, perhaps you have? If so, you will note that the aim of the paper is not to do so, rather, they were examining associations between treatment and in-hospital mortality, and reported what they found. Furthermore, in relation to you query around steroid use, as well as other important risk factors, you will note that they used appropriate statistical methods. In this case, multivariate Cox proportional (time-to-event) hazard modelling, controlling for both steroid use and a number of other important risk factors. In other words, the end point is an estimate for treatment effects, separated from steroid use and other things. In terms of matching (as you have noted), they performed a secondary analysis, using propensity score matching, so they did actually do this too. Therefore, my position is certainly not that the paper is flawed, and perhaps this is just semantics, but I would categorise it as a valid paper with important limitations.

    With the above in mind, I hope to reassure you I am well-placed to interpret, and critique the paper. I am a health researcher and have gone through the peer review process many times, including several Rx papers, published locally and internationally.

    And to you last point, of course I agree, but reiterate, the point of the paper was not to prove effectiveness. In this case, with available observational data, it was to explore associations. There is a very important place in the literature for these studies, particularly when double-blinded control studies are not always possible, and especially in the fast evolving Covid environment where information is at a premium.

    In terms of the previous Covid discussion, I don’t think its worth going back over. But if you do want to dig through the thread Im referring to a discussion w had about Sweden some time ago. I raised some points there.

    Anyway, I’ll leave it there, and hopefully you can appreciate my position on this. I think for the most part I understand where you are coming from.

    PS, wrote this post before seeing the ensuing 3 pages, hope its on topic. I think it is. Treatments of covid seem directly linked to adverse effects - i.e. death.

  4. #6244
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    In the meat time, and apologies if this has been posted already, but Victoria has ramped up lock down to a new level, imposing strict quarantine on 3000 residents, meaning the cannot even leave their home for any reason for at least 5 days.

    Im not sure if Kiwis have got their heads around the fact that we will more than likely be in a similar position at some point too... Perhaps not a strict lockdown like this, but at some point, particularly as border re-opening discussions gain more traction, cases will get back into NZ, back into the community, and parts of our country at least, will be back in lock down. These are discussion we will need to have.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/05/w...#link-44591c98

  5. #6245
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    Quote Originally Posted by RnT View Post
    Im not sure if Kiwis have got their heads around the fact that we will more than likely be in a similar position at some point too... Perhaps not a strict lockdown like this, but at some point, particularly as border re-opening discussions gain more traction, cases will get back into NZ, back into the community, and parts of our country at least, will be back in lock down. These are discussion we will need to have.
    I can imagine the foaming mouths now.
    Bad enough when 1 person climbs the fence.
    Imagine the noise when a new cluster picks up.
    I doubt that we will have a Vic level issue - they never got full control in the first place and are managing the border far worse.

  6. #6246
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    How can it get back in when there is 14 days of managed isolation?

    I agree we need to resist calls to open up, which only seems to be code for reduce this period to five days or less and therefore not be effective.
    Last edited by Panda-NZ-; Today at 10:13 AM.

  7. #6247
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    Quote Originally Posted by Panda-NZ- View Post
    How can it get back when their is 14 days of managed isolation?

    I agree we need to resist calls to open up, which only seems to be code for reduce this period to five days or less of isolation.
    Well even if we stay 'locked down' with closed borders, human error for a start - it has happened already, it will happen again, and one of these days it will result in cases slipping thorough. Also testing is not full proof. Asymptotic people with false negatives will eventually cause problems I think.

    That aside, the agenda that is being pushed, is more than just reducing the period to five days or nothing, it is a shift in what the definition of elimination means, toward one of a controlled predetermined low level of transmission within the community. The premise of this argument is that the hype of a vaccine might just be that, and that we might therefore be in this situation for years to come. As a result the argument is we need to start to figure out how we can sensibly balance the health risks of Covid with economic development via a controlled open border, while still maintaining a newly defined 'elimination strategy'.

    This is my read of where conversations are going to be headed in NZ, but my read of Kiwis is that we are very very far away from being comfortable with this.

    Adding to the complexity of the situation is the ever evolving Covid-related technologies: testing, contract tracing, treatments etc. One has to be able to put in place processes for the now, while being able to pivot to new places when potential advancements arise.

  8. #6248
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    Quote Originally Posted by Panda-NZ- View Post
    How can it get back in when there is 14 days of managed isolation?

    I agree we need to resist calls to open up, which only seems to be code for reduce this period to five days or less and therefore not be effective.
    At some stage the borders will have to loosen more.
    With that comes more risk.

  9. #6249
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vince View Post
    Okay, no warnings.

    Next person who goes off topic is gone for a week and what Left Field says goes.
    Quote Originally Posted by fish View Post
    That is good Vince.
    Please could you open the original coronavirus thread you closed and moved to off markets on the 8th February.It is really interesting to read and should not disappear.This move would be much appreciated as well as allowing off market discussion about coronavirus.
    Quote Originally Posted by Vince View Post
    All done.....
    The Coronavirus thread is here https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...04-Coronavirus

  10. #6250
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    There's a strong push from some quarters to open the border & let thousands of students in.
    This begs the question is it worth the cost to the economy to save lives, or should we sacrifice lives to save the economy.
    I've even read articles from some economists saying these people (presumably the elderly) were going to die anyway as if their lives had no value.
    It's a strange concept as we tend to think of life as priceless, but we often do put an economic value on a human life.
    There are examples everywhere, the US Govt pays the families of soldiers killed in action $500,000, in some cases Courts multiply a dead persons lost years of earnings to arrive at a settlement, Safety regulations often use a cost/benefit analysis where both the cost & the benefit (to save a human life) are monetary figures, Insurance companies often have to arrive at a value for a human life, Pharmac has to place a value on a human life V the cost of new drugs to save them, and so on.
    If you had to put an economic value on a life, US$10 Million is one figure which has wide acceptance & for example the loss of life in the US from Covid equates to trillions of dollars.
    So purely in economic terms, this is just something to think about when we argue about the potential impact of Covid on the NZ economy if we want to open up the border to thousand of students, tourists etc & risk letting the virus get a hold here.
    While Lockdown & closed borders have a huge cost to the economy, saving lives & health also have a huge economic benefit to the economy which is seldom mentioned.



    https://www.npr.org/transcripts/835571843

  11. #6251
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blue Skies View Post
    There's a strong push from some quarters to open the border & let thousands of students in.
    This begs the question is it worth the cost to the economy to save lives, or should we sacrifice lives to save the economy.
    I've even read articles from some economists saying these people (presumably the elderly) were going to die anyway as if their lives had no value.
    It's a strange concept as we tend to think of life as priceless, but we often do put an economic value on a human life.
    There are examples everywhere, the US Govt pays the families of soldiers killed in action $500,000, in some cases Courts multiply a dead persons lost years of earnings to arrive at a settlement, Safety regulations often use a cost/benefit analysis where both the cost & the benefit (to save a human life) are monetary figures, Insurance companies often have to arrive at a value for a human life, Pharmac has to place a value on a human life V the cost of new drugs to save them, and so on.
    If you had to put an economic value on a life, US$10 Million is one figure which has wide acceptance & for example the loss of life in the US from Covid equates to trillions of dollars.
    So purely in economic terms, this is just something to think about when we argue about the potential impact of Covid on the NZ economy if we want to open up the border to thousand of students, tourists etc & risk letting the virus get a hold here.
    While Lockdown & closed borders have a huge cost to the economy, saving lives & health also have a huge economic benefit to the economy which is seldom mentioned.



    https://www.npr.org/transcripts/835571843
    I would postulate that the value of a 30 year old is worth multiple times that of an 80 year old (in economic terms). Then look at the mortality stats for covid and the solution is not that simple as you suggest. (ie a whole bunch of old people over 80 dying is not that damaging to the economy as a whole bunch of 30 year olds dying. My premise is emotion aside and just stats based.

  12. #6252
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blue Skies View Post
    There's a strong push from some quarters to open the border & let thousands of students in.
    This begs the question is it worth the cost to the economy to save lives, or should we sacrifice lives to save the economy.
    I've even read articles from some economists saying these people (presumably the elderly) were going to die anyway as if their lives had no value.
    It's a strange concept as we tend to think of life as priceless, but we often do put an economic value on a human life.
    There are examples everywhere, the US Govt pays the families of soldiers killed in action $500,000, in some cases Courts multiply a dead persons lost years of earnings to arrive at a settlement, Safety regulations often use a cost/benefit analysis where both the cost & the benefit (to save a human life) are monetary figures, Insurance companies often have to arrive at a value for a human life, Pharmac has to place a value on a human life V the cost of new drugs to save them, and so on.
    If you had to put an economic value on a life, US$10 Million is one figure which has wide acceptance & for example the loss of life in the US from Covid equates to trillions of dollars.
    So purely in economic terms, this is just something to think about when we argue about the potential impact of Covid on the NZ economy if we want to open up the border to thousand of students, tourists etc & risk letting the virus get a hold here.
    While Lockdown & closed borders have a huge cost to the economy, saving lives & health also have a huge economic benefit to the economy which is seldom mentioned.

    https://www.npr.org/transcripts/835571843
    Interesting article Blue Skies, thanks for posting and very relevant in the discussions about shutting down the economy to save lives.
    Black lives matter, all lives matter, and the article says that old lives matter just as much as other lives.

    MALONE: The EPA suggested that, perhaps, older people should be worth 37% less money.
    STEVENSON: The backlash was so intense they, very immediately, walked away from that, and you haven't seen any kind of similar proposal since.
    MALONE: Every government agency has made the choice to use one value for all of us. A kind of average for old and young, but also, for rich, poor, brown, white - which, you know, that part definitely feels right.
    GONZALEZ: So - there was a moral decision made, at some point, that we would not value different lives differently based on age. This argument from some people that older people, maybe, aren't worth shutting down the economy for. But, it's important to keep in mind that we have already decided, as a country, that this is not how we run the numbers. Older people, younger people - same worth.

    The way Kip calculates the value of a life is based on the riskiness of jobs, and the coronavirus is changing which jobs are risky.

    VISCUSI: Now, it's the service workers. These are really, comparatively, safe jobs, in terms of fatality risk. But, they're exposed to these inordinate risks of exposure to coronavirus.
    Last edited by moka; Today at 12:51 PM.

  13. #6253
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    Quote Originally Posted by kiora View Post
    Is it just me or are we in LaLa land?
    "Have a plan, sell your plan and sell your vision. That is leadership, and people will follow."
    https://gilligansheppard.co.nz/imper...ic-leadership/

    Great article in my view
    The article starts off with “The tyranny we have been subjected to as a nation has likely blinded us to the long term negative economic and health consequences.”

    Tyranny is a very strong word which says more about how the writer sees the world than it does about the legitimate role of government. They may see government decisions as cruel and oppressive but that’s not how 80% or more of the team of five million saw it. It’s all part of the neoliberal mantra of less government which has delivered a low wage economy to NZ with the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer. And a low wage economy delivers less GDP. Tyranny speaks very much to a them and us attitude = competition, rather than we are all in this together. New Zealand is a democracy not an oligarchy where the rich run the country for their own benefit.

    The article also says “The cure has clearly been worse than the disease and comes with a heavy economic cost. The lockdown was to avoid the pressure on the health system. Basically, people who died of Covid, would have died anyway in the near future.”

    It is concerning that business leaders are so out of touch with what the average New Zealander thinks which is that granny should not be sacrificed for the sake of the economy.

  14. #6254
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    Quote Originally Posted by moka View Post
    Interesting article Blue Skies, thanks for posting and very relevant in the discussions about shutting down the economy to save lives.
    Black lives matter, all lives matter, and the article says that old lives matter just as much as other lives.

    MALONE: The EPA suggested that, perhaps, older people should be worth 37% less money.
    STEVENSON: The backlash was so intense they, very immediately, walked away from that, and you haven't seen any kind of similar proposal since.
    MALONE: Every government agency has made the choice to use one value for all of us. A kind of average for old and young, but also, for rich, poor, brown, white - which, you know, that part definitely feels right.
    GONZALEZ: So - there was a moral decision made, at some point, that we would not value different lives differently based on age. This argument from some people that older people, maybe, aren't worth shutting down the economy for. But, it's important to keep in mind that we have already decided, as a country, that this is not how we run the numbers. Older people, younger people - same worth.

    The way Kip calculates the value of a life is based on the riskiness of jobs, and the coronavirus is changing which jobs are risky.

    VISCUSI: Now, it's the service workers. These are really, comparatively, safe jobs, in terms of fatality risk. But, they're exposed to these inordinate risks of exposure to coronavirus.
    All lives matter totally, White as much as Black as much as Old.

    But from an economic point of view they do not. You cannot seriously tell me that an 85 year old riddled with cancer with 10 days to live has as much economic value as a just graduated 23 year old. Again speaking dispassionately and hypothetically here. (I love my very old Grandma (90 this December) to bits and wish I could go and visit her this year but due to corona restrictions I cannot).

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