How good are the forecasts of stockmarket analysts?

[BlackPeter]

We love to be cynical and beat stock market analysts up while secretly still following their analysis, at least if it suits our agenda - don't we?

I thought I try to put a bit of analysis into this area, then at least we will know.

Rules of the game:

I shall take the consensus and the recommendation of NZX listed companies which are regularly analysed by more than one analyst and compare 12 months later what really happened. Companies researched will come off my watch list (in this case I have all the numbers anyway available).

Consensus and recommendation taken from marketscreener.com

If the share price of the stock in forecast month is within consensus +/- 10% then I call that a PASS, otherwise I call that a FAIL. Fair enough?

If recommendation is HOLD, I call it a pass if stock performed similar to NZX50 +/- 10%
If recommendation is OUTPERFORM or BUY I call it a pass if stock outperformed NZX50
If recommendation is UNDERPERFORM or SELL I call it a pass if stock underperformed NZX50.

These are the companies and forecasts I looked at so far ...

Stock	prediction timeframe	analyst hitrate	link to post
ABA	Feb-19 to FEb-20	Shareprice Forecast Fail; Buy Recommendation: Fail;	https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...l=1#post796127
AIA	Feb-19 to Feb-20	Shareprice Forecast Fail; Buy Recommendation: Pass;	https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...l=1#post801656
ANZ	Jan-19 to Jan-20	Shareprice Forecast Pass; Buy Recommendation: Fail;	http://://www.sharetrader.co.nz/show...ANZ#post791775
A2M / ATM	Jan-19 to Jan-20	Shareprice Forecast: Fail; Buy Recommendation: Fail;	https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?2318-ATM-A2-Corporation-Limited&p=792116&viewfull=1#post792116
FBU	Feb-19 to Feb-20	Shareprice Forecast: Pass; Buy Recommendation: Fail;	https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?10702-Fletcher-Building-(FBU)&p=795413&highlight=FBU#post795413
FPH	Jan-19 to Jan-20	Shareprice Forecast: Fail; Buy Recommendation: Fail;	https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?8537-Fph&p=791601&viewfull=1#post791601
HGH	Jan-19 to Jan-20	Shareprice Forecast Fail; Buy Recommendation: Pass;	https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?8425-HGH-Heartland-Group-Holdings&p=791874&viewfull=1#post791874
KMD	Feb-19 to Feb-20	Shareprice Forecast Fail; Buy Recommendation: Pass;	https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?7128-Kathmandu-IPO&p=797912#post797912
MCY	Jan-19 to Jan-20	Shareprice Forecast Fail; Buy Recommendation: Fail;	https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9340-Meridian-Float&p=791423&viewfull=1#post791423
MFT	Jan-19 to Jan-20	Shareprice Forecast Fail; Buy Recommendation: Pass;	https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?760-MFT&p=791142&viewfull=1#post791142
MPG	Jan-19 to Jan-20	Shareprice Forecast Fail; Buy Recommendation: Fail;	https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9836-Metro-Glass-IPO&p=792449&viewfull=1#post792449
OCA	Feb-19 to Feb-20	Shareprice Forecast Pass; Buy Recommendation: Fail;	https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9856-Oceania-Group-retirement-villages&p=799799&highlight=OCA#post799799
SCL	Feb-19 to Feb-20	Shareprice Forecast Pass; Buy Recommendation: Fail;	https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...135#post796135
SPK	Feb-19 to Feb-20	Shareprice Forecast Fail; Buy Recommendation: Pass;	https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...SPK#post798675
STU	Jan-19 to Jan-20	Shareprice Forecast Fail; Buy Recommendation: PASS;	https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?1835-STU&p=792867&viewfull=1#post792867
SUM	Jan-19 to Jan-20	Shareprice Forecast Fail; Buy Recommendation: FAIL;	https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?5009-Summerset-Group-IPO&p=792252&viewfull=1#post792252
THL	Jan-19 to Jan-20	Shareprice Forecast: Fail; Buy Recommendation: Fail;	https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?5278-THL-Tourism-Holdings&p=790937&viewfull=1#post790937
TPW	Feb-19 to Feb-20	Shareprice Forecast: Fail; Buy Recommendation: Pass;	https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?1363-TRUST-POWER&p=796435&viewfull=1#post796435
XRO	Feb-19 to Feb-20	Shareprice Forecast: Fail; Buy Recommendation: Fail;	https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?4774-Xro-xero&highlight=XRO&p=794962#post794962
ZEL	Feb-19 to Feb-20	Shareprice Forecast: Fail; Buy Recommendation: Fail;	https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9253-Z-Energy-IPO&p=800689&highlight=ZEL#post800689

Rating of the analyst consensus forecasts so far:

20 stock forecasts checked so far (checking for each consensus and buy recommendation);
Consensus share price forecasts correct: 4/20; analysts hitrate: 20%
Consensus recommendation vs NZX50 correct: 7/20; analysts hitrate: 35%

Work in progress - bear with me .