Is a Bear Market starting to play out on the NZX ?

[Beagle]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/27/here...y-can-get.html

I believe it is highly likely the greatest ever bull market of our lives is over. The economic effects from this black swan event that nobody saw coming has ended it.

The only question in my mind is are we in the early stages of a correction or a bear market. Its possibly a little early to tell but the central theme of my current investment strategy is that on the balance of probabilities it is highly likely the market as a whole will be lower in 2-3 months time than it is now.

Why do I believe this ? The NZX after a record 11 year run and a truly spectacular 2019 had reached extremely elevated level's and is ripe for a decent correction with or without this virus. Its crystal clear already that this virus will have significant economic effects which could easily snowball throughout the economy as consumers shut up shop in terms of discretionary spending and business's freeze capex and new hiring and lay off workers to try and survive.

Its well worth noting that in the last great bear market, the GFC, stock markets fared extremely poorly with many down over 50% and taking 24 months or longer to recover.

We've had a charmed run. Cash looks exceptionally good to me as an asset class at present. I am 95%+ in cash and short term deposits so I am putting my money where my mouth is.

If I am wrong I am still happy as I have crystalized many years of fabulous gains and the market was already very stretched so is extremely unlikely to go materially higher from its current level in the foreseeable future. I see the risks as clearly to the downside and we have just witnessed the DOW, S&P500 and Nasdaq correct from record level's to correction territory, down 10% at record ever speed, less than 10 trading sessions.

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/natio...cid=spartanntp

P.S. Update, Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all down a whopping circa 4.5% overnight.

Take care folks.

[bull....]

your right ive cashed up and re investing this weekend in survival equipment and food supplies

[Biscuit]

Yeah, I reckon the bear is unleashed. I'm still about 50:50 shares:cash and I ain't selling nothing from here. Am going to try to resist buying for a while, but make no promises.

[blackcap]

Yeah, I reckon the bear is unleashed. I'm still about 50:50 shares:cash and I ain't selling nothing from here. Am going to try to resist buying for a while, but make no promises.

That is the boat I am in too. I have been accumulating cash the last year or two, (not reinvesting divs) and will wait a while longer before putting this cash to use. But I am not selling my core portfolio.

[Brovendell]

OMG
The value of my house is going down..
I had better sell it now and go and live in a motel.

[Biscuit]

OMG
The value of my house is going down..
I had better sell it now and go and live in a motel.

Don't underestimate the power of the bear. The sensible get out of the way early (ie. see Beagle's post from about a week ago).

[peat]

getting close to maximum fear though ?

[Beagle]

getting close to maximum fear though ?

Wait till it starts spreading person to person in N.Z., then you'll see something new and potentially far more ugly.

[fish]

Wait till it starts spreading person to person in N.Z., then you'll see something new and potentially far more ugly.

First community spread in the states.
Only a matter of time here
Jacinda does not seem bothered about country to country spread and believes we are well-prepared .
I beg to differ

[Beagle]

First community spread in the states.
Only a matter of time here
Jacinda does not seem bothered about country to country spread and believes we are well-prepared .
I beg to differ

Best to get lots of long life food supplies in so one is well stocked for any possible lockdown isn't it ?