Is a Bear Market starting to play out on the NZX ?

[Beagle]

New world in Chch seemed the same as any other day. There was only one lunatic stocking his trolley with vitamins, candles, batteries and tins of soup. Damn, forgot the lucozade

Not sure about this helicopter though, has been buzzing around here for last Two weeks,waking everyone up. Last time we had constant arial surveillance was the mosque shooting and the earthquakes. Wonder if it there preparing for virus day.

Isn't the mosque anniversary coming up in March ? Maybe scoping out possible sniper vantage points so there's no recurrence with some other nut job looking to make themselves infamous ?

[Beagle]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/28/the-...pens-next.html

[couta1]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/28/the-...pens-next.html

13.7% average drop over 26 corrections and sept 18 was 20% ,hmm not much new under the sun or to see here, same old Lemming effect.

[Balance]

Not being racist, just stating the opinion from first hand eye witness report, a lot of Asians have been panic buying today.

It's in their DNA - just look at what happened in HK, Singapore and China - panic buying as they are dead scared that food & provisions will run out and/or they could be quarantined for weeks without access to basic essentials, especially toilet papers!

Nothing racist about that - it's an observation.

[DazRaz]

Not sure about this helicopter though, has been buzzing around here for last Two weeks,waking everyone up. Last time we had constant arial surveillance was the mosque shooting and the earthquakes. Wonder if it there preparing for virus day.

It's the Police Eagle helicopter. Doing a 6 week trial here in Christchurch. It seems to be constantly in the air.

[Balance]

Finally plucked up enough will power to brave the stock pilers at our local Pak n Save to get some milk and butter.

Nice pleasant surprise - no queues in sight and the shelves were mostly well stocked, with the exception of a few 99c birthday specials shelves.

Plenty of everything.

Talked to the checkout lady and she said they were a bit busy in the morning until lunch. She commented that the super busy Pak n Save stores are in the predominantly Asian areas.

So there you have it.

Panic buying is over.

[iceman]

Finally plucked up enough will power to brave the stock pilers at our local Pak n Save to get some milk and butter.

Nice pleasant surprise - no queues in sight and the shelves were mostly well stocked, with the exception of a few 99c birthday specials shelves.

Plenty of everything.

Talked to the checkout lady and she said they were a bit busy in the morning until lunch. She commented that the super busy Pak n Save stores are in the predominantly Asian areas.

So there you have it.

Panic buying is over.

But the panic selling on the markets continues and we are likely to see a bit more of it next week !! Oh well, another deep breath

[Beagle]

13.7% average drop over 26 corrections and sept 18 was 20% ,hmm not much new under the sun or to see here, same old Lemming effect.

Huge bear mate with massive teeth and claws...its many times the size of a Beagle dog so I dodged out of its way but its coming for you and mark my words, its going to really put some hurt on those that take it on.

My simple strategy in a bear market is once momentum is broken and a stock breaks down through its 100 day moving average , I sell and I don't buy back until its been properly de-risked and broken back up through the 100 day MA line. A simple strategy like that would have got you out of HLG at just on $6, if you didn't have so many.

Technical analysis is your best friend in a bear market and fundamental analysis your worst enemy because the temptation to buy because the metrics look cheap can easily get the better of you...and then the bear mauls you some more and then he bites you and then he claws you and then, oh dear, you get the idea.

Capital preservation is the name of the game in a Bear market !

[couta1]

Huge bear mate with massive teeth and claws...its many times the size of a Beagle dog so I dodged out of its way but its coming for you and mark my words, its going to really put some hurt on those that take it on.

My simple strategy in a bear market is once momentum is broken and a stock breaks down through its 100 day moving average , I sell and I don't buy back until its been properly de-risked and broken back up through the 100 day MA line. A simple strategy like that would have got you out of HLG at just on $6, if you didn't have so many.

Technical analysis is your best friend in a bear market and fundamental analysis your worst enemy because the temptation to buy because the metrics look cheap can easily get the better of you...and then the bear mauls you some more and then he bites you and then he claws you and then, oh dear, you get the idea.

Capital preservation is the name of the game in a Bear market !

Don't use the 100 day moving average as an indicator and I didn't want to get out at $6 or $5 or even $4 for that matter, it's a divvy income stock for me not a trading stock.

[Aarrgghh]

There's two things which slap me in the face about the recent drops.
First thing is gold dropped sharply on Friday, reportedly as traders were needing to sell so much gold to cover margin calls on shares. Its mind boggling that there is enough margin calls being made to shift the price of gold. If this is the case the next few days are going to be savage.
https://www.latimes.com/business/sto...ps-coronavirus

The second, and possibly connected thing is the current interest rate environment. With interest rates so low, gearing costs are lower, leading to more of the market on margin. Target PE ratios have been much higher, as you can't get anywhere near the same return from the bank.

The response from the market in this downturn is going to be very different to that which we have seen in the past. The downturn is going to be sharper than the past, but we might see a return to normal sooner than you might think.