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  1. #1
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Jul 2010
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    Auckland
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    21,362

    Default Is a Bear Market starting to play out on the NZX ?

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/27/here...y-can-get.html

    I believe it is highly likely the greatest ever bull market of our lives is over. The economic effects from this black swan event that nobody saw coming has ended it.

    The only question in my mind is are we in the early stages of a correction or a bear market. Its possibly a little early to tell but the central theme of my current investment strategy is that on the balance of probabilities it is highly likely the market as a whole will be lower in 2-3 months time than it is now.

    Why do I believe this ? The NZX after a record 11 year run and a truly spectacular 2019 had reached extremely elevated level's and is ripe for a decent correction with or without this virus. Its crystal clear already that this virus will have significant economic effects which could easily snowball throughout the economy as consumers shut up shop in terms of discretionary spending and business's freeze capex and new hiring and lay off workers to try and survive.

    Its well worth noting that in the last great bear market, the GFC, stock markets fared extremely poorly with many down over 50% and taking 24 months or longer to recover.

    We've had a charmed run. Cash looks exceptionally good to me as an asset class at present. I am 95%+ in cash and short term deposits so I am putting my money where my mouth is.

    If I am wrong I am still happy as I have crystalized many years of fabulous gains and the market was already very stretched so is extremely unlikely to go materially higher from its current level in the foreseeable future. I see the risks as clearly to the downside and we have just witnessed the DOW, S&P500 and Nasdaq correct from record level's to correction territory, down 10% at record ever speed, less than 10 trading sessions.

    https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/natio...cid=spartanntp

    P.S. Update, Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all down a whopping circa 4.5% overnight.

    Take care folks.
    Last edited by Beagle; 28-02-2020 at 09:05 AM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  2. #2
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2002
    Location
    auckland, , New Zealand.
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    10,993

    Default

    your right ive cashed up and re investing this weekend in survival equipment and food supplies
    one step ahead of the herd

  3. #3
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2014
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    rural canterbury
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    Default

    Yeah, I reckon the bear is unleashed. I'm still about 50:50 shares:cash and I ain't selling nothing from here. Am going to try to resist buying for a while, but make no promises.

  4. #4
    Guru
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Location
    Wellington, New Zealand
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    4,876

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Biscuit View Post
    Yeah, I reckon the bear is unleashed. I'm still about 50:50 shares:cash and I ain't selling nothing from here. Am going to try to resist buying for a while, but make no promises.
    That is the boat I am in too. I have been accumulating cash the last year or two, (not reinvesting divs) and will wait a while longer before putting this cash to use. But I am not selling my core portfolio.

  5. #5
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2015
    Posts
    50

    Default

    OMG
    The value of my house is going down..
    I had better sell it now and go and live in a motel.

  6. #6
    Senior Member
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    Oct 2014
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    rural canterbury
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Brovendell View Post
    OMG
    The value of my house is going down..
    I had better sell it now and go and live in a motel.
    Don't underestimate the power of the bear. The sensible get out of the way early (ie. see Beagle's post from about a week ago).
    Last edited by Biscuit; 28-02-2020 at 08:58 AM.

  7. #7

  8. #8
    Senior Member
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    Apr 2013
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    Pourquoi?
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    870

    Default

    Normal flu strain variation - old people dying with other conditions (400k deaths from flu every year??). This new one is a substitute for normal flu. FLu is contagious (stay at home if you have?) China market went up. Media is the problem.

    DYOR
    Last edited by Schrodinger; 28-02-2020 at 09:46 AM.

  9. #9
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2019
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    681

    Default

    Cant stop laughing at people panicking over this disclosure in the medical sector - this is insanely overblown

  10. #10
    Senior Member
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    Aug 2003
    Location
    Tauranga
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    1,068

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Cadalac123 View Post
    Cant stop laughing at people panicking over this disclosure in the medical sector - this is insanely overblown
    That's how black swans work

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