Is a Bear Market starting to play out on the NZX ?

[Beagle]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/27/here...y-can-get.html

I believe it is highly likely the greatest ever bull market of our lives is over. The economic effects from this black swan event that nobody saw coming has ended it.

The only question in my mind is are we in the early stages of a correction or a bear market. Its possibly a little early to tell but the central theme of my current investment strategy is that on the balance of probabilities it is highly likely the market as a whole will be lower in 2-3 months time than it is now.

Why do I believe this ? The NZX after a record 11 year run and a truly spectacular 2019 had reached extremely elevated level's and is ripe for a decent correction with or without this virus. Its crystal clear already that this virus will have significant economic effects which could easily snowball throughout the economy as consumers shut up shop in terms of discretionary spending and business's freeze capex and new hiring and lay off workers to try and survive.

Its well worth noting that in the last great bear market, the GFC, stock markets fared extremely poorly with many down over 50% and taking 24 months or longer to recover.

We've had a charmed run. Cash looks exceptionally good to me as an asset class at present. I am 95%+ in cash and short term deposits so I am putting my money where my mouth is.

If I am wrong I am still happy as I have crystalized many years of fabulous gains and the market was already very stretched so is extremely unlikely to go materially higher from its current level in the foreseeable future. I see the risks as clearly to the downside and we have just witnessed the DOW, S&P500 and Nasdaq correct from record level's to correction territory, down 10% at record ever speed, less than 10 trading sessions.

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/natio...cid=spartanntp

P.S. Update, Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all down a whopping circa 4.5% overnight.

Take care folks.