Is a Bear Market starting to play out on the NZX ?

[ynot]

I don't think you can inject the latest round of QE into the system without a strong upside in the near term. Long term, different story, no amount of QE will save the coming depression.

[Beagle]

Interesting this depression talk...could be right...economic effects are shaping up to be HUGE ! https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/a...ectid=12321458

[winner69]

Wikipedia definition of depression

In economics, a depression is a sustained, long-term downturn in economic activity in one or more economies. It is a more severe economic downturn than a recession, which is a slowdown in economic activity over the course of a normal business cycle.
Depressions are characterized by their length, by abnormally large increases in unemployment, falls in the availability of credit (often due to some form of banking or financial crisis), shrinking output as buyers dry up and suppliers cut back on production and investment, more bankruptcies including sovereign debt defaults, significantly reduced amounts of trade and commerce (especially international trade), as well as highly volatile relative currency value fluctuations (often due to currency devaluations). Price deflation, financial crises and bank failures are also common elements of a depression that do not normally occur during a recession.

[Ltw]

Wikipedia definition of depression

In economics, a depression is a sustained, long-term downturn in economic activity in one or more economies. It is a more severe economic downturn than a recession, which is a slowdown in economic activity over the course of a normal business cycle.
Depressions are characterized by their length, by abnormally large increases in unemployment, falls in the availability of credit (often due to some form of banking or financial crisis), shrinking output as buyers dry up and suppliers cut back on production and investment, more bankruptcies including sovereign debt defaults, significantly reduced amounts of trade and commerce (especially international trade), as well as highly volatile relative currency value fluctuations (often due to currency devaluations). Price deflation, financial crises and bank failures are also common elements of a depression that do not normally occur during a recession.

Say it all doesn't it!

[Beagle]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Depression Interesting that global GDP decreased by just 15% from 1929 to 1932, @ 5% per year.
Economists talking about 6% reduction in GDP in N.Z. in 2020, could be worse and this is just starting. Hmmm.

[peat]

I found this picture in my 2010 folder. Seems perfectly apt.


Attachment 11189

[dobby41]

I found this picture in my 2010 folder. Seems perfectly apt.


Attachment 11189

The top 'are we here'
Just seems far to early to be at the second jump already - we've only just started to try to understand the impacts and what the future might look like.

[Beagle]

Agree...the answer is perfectly obvious. Mike Taylor of PIE funds sounds a very cautionary note. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12321221

[SailorRob]

Is it not absolutely astounding that with all that has already happened and is known to be happening just in the next three weeks economically speaking - let alone what is unknown, that the collective market price of the top 50 companies is around where it was a year ago?

The biggest economic dislocation in our lives in a tiny, open, export based economy at the end of the world... massive loss of output, contracts in question in all sectors of the economy, McDonalds and Harvey Norman talking about not paying rent...

Most households levered up to the point they are living week to week, same with most companies. Complete halt to tourism an immigration... the fact that thousands of businesses will be reluctant to take on staff for years. Working capital destroyed.

None of the numbers even out yet. Global economic and political uncertainty, no idea how long for... Massive demand shock and supply shock...

The beginning of QE never having been implemented here before as well as loads of other policies changing by the hour...

AND the market values the top 50 companies around the price they did a year ago when blue sky as far as the eye can see...

What am I missing.

[ynot]

Is it not absolutely astounding that with all that has already happened and is known to be happening just in the next three weeks economically speaking - let alone what is unknown, that the collective market price of the top 50 companies is around where it was a year ago?

The biggest economic dislocation in our lives in a tiny, open, export based economy at the end of the world... massive loss of output, contracts in question in all sectors of the economy, McDonalds and Harvey Norman talking about not paying rent...

Most households levered up to the point they are living week to week, same with most companies. Complete halt to tourism an immigration... the fact that thousands of businesses will be reluctant to take on staff for years. Working capital destroyed.

None of the numbers even out yet. Global economic and political uncertainty, no idea how long for... Massive demand shock and supply shock...

The beginning of QE never having been implemented here before as well as loads of other policies changing by the hour...

AND the market values the top 50 companies around the price they did a year ago when blue sky as far as the eye can see...

What am I missing.

Massive 2 trillion + QE