Is a Bear Market starting to play out on the NZX ?

[Cadalac123]

Def think stocks falling 70percent plus was beyond ridiculous. I wonder if the general index will slowly creep up or consolidate a little higher than current levels. With actual companies not significantly impacted and have future growth potential even inn this environment running past the indexes which hold some sectors which are completely ruined

[Beagle]

Im thinking market may go lower but the indiscriminate selling maybe over. No more panic, but shares bought or sold on their fundamentals which will deteriorate over time, for many stocks at least.
Hard to imagine anything that would make the market panic like it did last week

Another 3,000 point fall in the Dow could trigger another wave down. Very similar pattern occurred in the GFC, very sharp downward move followed by a 20%+ bull market recovery, (within a bear market) and then another major leg down to end down about 50% overall. The worst of it played out over 7 months. Average bear market lasts for 11 months.
A lot of institutions have had to undertaker quarter end rebalancing of their portfolio's to meet minimum mandated equity allocations. This has happened because bonds have had such a strong run and equities such a weak run. With a new quarter starting tomorrow, it will be interesting to see how this recent bounce holds, or doesn't, without that institutional rebalancing support. https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/articl...or+31+Mar+2020

[Baa_Baa]

Another 3,000 point fall in the Dow could trigger another wave down. Very similar pattern occurred in the GFC, very sharp downward move followed by a 20%+ bull market recovery, (within a bear market) and then another major leg down to end down about 50% overall. The worst of it played out over 7 months. Average bear market lasts for 11 months.
A lot of institutions have had to undertaker quarter end rebalancing of their portfolio's to meet minimum mandated equity allocations. This has happened because bonds have had such a strong run and equities such a weak run. With a new quarter starting tomorrow, it will be interesting to see how this recent bounce holds, or doesn't, without that institutional rebalancing support. https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/articl...or+31+Mar+2020

False hope, next major move is down imo. Whenever that is. Patience, this isn’t over

[JBmurc]

Great Depression 2020's .... interesting times ahead

[Beagle]

Great Depression 2020's .... interesting times ahead

The last one kicked off in the 1920's. You could be right, we're certainly overdue for another one.

Might be good if house prices halved or even worse so the young ones can afford to buy a house.

[Beagle]

False hope, next major move is down imo. Whenever that is. Patience, this isn’t over

Yeap, I am extremely cautious and will remain so for the near term.

[Food4Thought]

Yeap, I am extremely cautious and will remain so for the near term.

I think of the fence at the top of the cliff versus the ambulance at the bottom.

I know where I'd rather be. And it's certainly not near a hospital.

Staying cautious. I'm not wealthy enough to gamble my money, but with my health, I've got many years to get back in the game.

Also only mid 30s so not looking to retire just yet. Got plenty of energy and enthusiasm left.

Bear with it is my opinion for now...

[dobby41]

The last one kicked off in the 1920's. You could be right, we're certainly overdue for another one.

Might be good if house prices halved or even worse so the young ones can afford to buy a house.

October1929 for the Wall St crash - just in the 20's.
In NZ it didn't really start until 1930-31

[mondograss]

I think people aren't really yet attuned to the lag that's inherent in this pandemic. The US is piling up cases at a rate of nearly 20,000 a day and although their death rate is presently only sitting at just over 500 a day, they're also not ticking people off as recovered very quickly (181,000 cases but only 6000 considered recovered). Their hospitals can't sustain that sort of growth rate for very long and this is primarily being driven out of New York. Other states are only just starting to feel the impact. This could drag on for a very long time there as it spreads around the country.

Aus it appears generally accepted has also been too slow to lockdown and may only just be getting started although at present their growth rate in infections looks like flattening off a little so they might yet live up to their name of the lucky country.

[winner69]

Aswath Damodaran always good value

How to look at companies going forward covered in this neat diagram from his latest blog link below.

As he says Historical data may be recent, but it is already dated ....sorry Black Peter, time to archive your models.



https://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com...louts-and.html